In a pitch to private investors, Elon Musk once predicted that one of his companies would quintuple its revenue to more than $26 billion and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028.

在一次面向私人投资者的推介中，埃隆·马斯克曾预言，他旗下的一家公司到2028年营收将增至五倍、超过260亿美元，用户群也将接近增至五倍。

That company was Twitter and those projections were made as Mr. Musk prepared to buy the social media company for $44 billion in 2022.

那家公司就是Twitter，上述预测是马斯克在2022年斥资440亿美元收购这家社交媒体公司前夕作出的。

Today, Twitter, which has been renamed X, has fallen far short of what Mr. Musk said would happen. The social media platform’s ad revenue plunged 65 percent last year. And it was ultimately folded into SpaceX, Mr. Musk’s rocket company, this year.

如今，已更名为X的Twitter远远没有实现马斯克当年的预测。去年这家社交媒体平台的广告收入暴跌65%。而在今年，它最终被并入了马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX。

Now as SpaceX readies for a blockbuster initial public offering, Mr. Musk and his investment bankers are selling even loftier propositions about what the rocket and artificial intelligence company will achieve. But those proclamations, coupled with Mr. Musk’s history of overpromising, have some investors increasingly worried that SpaceX — which priced its offering at a $1.77 trillion valuation and is set to begin trading on Friday — may burn them.

眼下，随着SpaceX筹备轰动一时的首次公开募股，马斯克和他的投资银行家们正在兜售更为宏大的愿景，描绘这家火箭和人工智能公司的未来蓝图。但这些豪言壮语和马斯克过度承诺的惯常作风正让一些投资者越来越担心：估值达到1.77万亿美元、计划于周五开始交易的SpaceX可能会让他们遭受损失。

“It really does feel very much a ‘don’t look at the man behind the curtain’ situation,” said Jim Chanos, the founder of the investment firm Chanos and Company, who predicted the 2001 collapse of Enron, the energy company that was found to have engaged in accounting fraud.

“这给人的感觉确实很像‘障眼法’，”投资公司Chanos and Company的创始人吉姆·查诺斯说。他曾预测安然公司会在2001年倒闭——那家能源公司后来被发现存在会计欺诈。

Mr. Chanos and others said they were concerned with SpaceX’s finances. The company lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year alone and is spending heavily on A.I. development. Revenue was $4.7 billion and growing, but it was far lower than that of tech giants like Meta, which brought in $56.3 billion in the same period and has a stock market valuation of $1.4 trillion.

查诺斯等人表示，他们担忧的是SpaceX的财务状况。仅今年第一季度，公司就亏损了43亿美元，而且仍在人工智能研发方面大举投入；其营收达到47亿美元并保持增长，但与Meta等科技巨头相比仍相差甚远——Meta同期营收高达563亿美元，市值约为1.4万亿美元。

At the same time, SpaceX has promised that its total addressable market — which is its revenue opportunity if it captured all the demand across its various industries — is the largest “in human history” at $28.5 trillion. The figure, which depends on SpaceX proving that it can put A.I. data centers in space and develop factories on the moon, dwarfs China’s annual gross domestic product by more than $8 trillion.

与此同时，SpaceX声称其总潜在市场规模——即在其涉足的所有行业中独占全部需求的营收上限——是“人类历史上”最大的，高达28.5万亿美元。这一数字比中国全年国内生产总值高出逾8万亿美元，其前提是SpaceX能够证明它可以将人工智能数据中心送入太空，并在月球上建厂。

Michael Burry, a hedge fund investor featured in the book “The Big Short” for his predictions on the 2008 financial crisis, said in a Substack discussion last month that any increase in SpaceX’s stock after its I.P.O. would “be on hype and technicals.”

因准确预测2008年金融危机而出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里上个月在Substack讨论中表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。

“Nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion,” Mr. Burry wrote, referring to the company’s I.P.O. filing.

“那份S-1文件中没有任何内容能够表明它值1万亿美元，更遑论2万亿美元，”贝里写道。

Even some SpaceX shareholders have doubts. Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, an investment firm that owns SpaceX stock, said the company’s projections reminded him of unverified information that young start-ups used to woo investors. He said he was alarmed by SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would be more than four times the $400 billion that the company was valued at just 13 months ago.

就连部分SpaceX股东也心存疑虑。持有SpaceX股票的投资公司Gerber Kawasaki的首席执行官罗斯·格伯表示，该公司的预测让他联想到年轻初创企业用来诱惑投资者的未经证实的说辞。1.77万亿美元的估值让他感到震惊，因为就在13个月前，该公司的估值还只有4000亿美元。

“Investors are paying an extremely high price for this stock,” Mr. Gerber said.

“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”格伯说。

A SpaceX spokesman did not return a request for comment.

SpaceX发言人没有回应置评请求。

SpaceX’s bankers, including Goldman Sachs, which is leading the I.P.O. process, have added to the sweeping projections. The Financial Times earlier reported that Goldman had told a potential investor that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. Morgan Stanley, which is also working on the I.P.O., said in an analysis shared with investors that it anticipated SpaceX’s revenue would hit $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to The Wall Street Journal.

SpaceX的承销商——包括主导IPO过程的高盛——也为这些宏大预测推波助澜。英国《金融时报》此前报道，高盛曾告诉一位潜在投资者，预计SpaceX的总收入将从去年的187亿美元增长到2030年的4740亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道，同样参与IPO的摩根士丹利在分享给投资者的一份分析报告中预计，到2040年，SpaceX的收入将达到3.4万亿美元。

Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.

高盛和摩根士丹利均拒绝置评。

Morningstar, an investment research company, issued a more sober analysis. The firm said that SpaceX’s I.P.O. price was “overvalued” and that the company was worth around $780 billion. Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity researcher, gave SpaceX a 7 percent chance of getting its latest rocket, Starship, to a point where it can be used over and over again like a regular plane, and proving that A.I. data centers were cheaper and more effective than their terrestrial counterparts. In the most optimistic scenario, Mr. Owens said, SpaceX could be valued at $1.97 trillion.

投资研究公司晨星发布了一份更为冷静的分析。该公司表示，SpaceX的IPO价格被“高估”，认为其合理估值约为7800亿美元。晨星股票研究员尼古拉斯·欧文斯认为，SpaceX将其最新火箭“星舰”打造成像普通飞机一样可重复使用的可能性为7%，并且需要证明人工智能数据中心比地面数据中心更便宜、更高效。欧文斯表示，在最乐观的情景下，SpaceX的估值可能达到1.97万亿美元。

“We’ll know in two to three years if Starship is reusable or a GPU rack in space will be viable or offer some cost savings,” he said, referring to the computer chips used to power A.I. technology. “But the company is asking everyone to decide on Friday if that’s possible and what it’s worth.”

“两三年内我们就会知道‘星舰’是否可重复使用，或者太空中的GPU机架是否具有商业可行性或成本优势，”他指的是用于驱动人工智能技术的计算机芯片。“但公司要求所有人在周五就作出判断，决定这一切是否可能实现，以及它值多少钱。”

Mr. Musk has also shown a propensity to change his business goals on the fly, analysts and investors said. It was not until last year that he first spoke of data centers in space, and he doubled down on the idea in February after merging SpaceX with his A.I. company, xAI.

分析人士和投资者还指出，马斯克有随时调整商业目标的习惯。事实上，直到去年，他才首次提出建设太空数据中心的概念；今年2月，在将SpaceX与自己的人工智能公司xAI合并后，他又进一步加码这一方向。

In April, SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire Cursor, an A.I. start-up that develops coding software, for $60 billion, shifting the company into an area it was not previously focused on. Mr. Musk, who has spent billions to build his own frontier A.I. models and his A.I. chatbot Grok, also appeared to change course recently on other A.I. plans.

今年4月，SpaceX宣布同意以600亿美元收购开发编程软件的AI初创企业Cursor，使公司业务进入此前从未重点涉足的新领域。马斯克已经投入数十亿美元开发自己的前沿AI模型以及聊天机器人Grok，但最近似乎也在其他AI计划上改变了方向。

Last month, SpaceX struck a deal with the A.I. start-up Anthropic to provide it with computing power for products that were not being used by Mr. Musk’s own A.I. services. SpaceX then forged a similar agreement last week to provide Google with computing power.

上个月，SpaceX与AI初创公司Anthropic达成协议，把马斯克自己的AI服务未用上的算力提供给对方。上周，SpaceX又与谷歌签署了类似的算力供应协议。

SpaceX boosters on Wall Street and social media promoted the deals as wins that would generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue. But naysayers pointed to how the company was making significant changes to its long-term business plans at the last minute.

华尔街和社交媒体上的SpaceX支持者将这些交易吹捧为重大胜利，认为它们将创造数百亿美元收入。但批评者指出，这家公司在临门一脚之际对其长期商业计划做出了重大改动。

“The real excitement should be about developing some new, powerful agentic model,” Mr. Chanos said. “But xAI seems to be suddenly changing its business model from developing models like Grok to basically becoming a neocloud,” he said, using the industry term for companies that provide computing power to other A.I. firms.

“真正令人兴奋的应该是开发出某种强大的新型智能体模型，”查诺斯说，“但xAI似乎正在突然将商业模式从开发Grok这样的模型，转向基本上成为一家新型云计算公司(neocloud)——”他用了业内术语“neocloud”，指为其他人工智能公司提供算力的企业。

“That’s crucial because the entire valuation rests on xAI’s progress,” Mr. Chanos said, calling the neocloud strategy a “commodity business” that is valued far lower on the public markets.

“这一点至关重要，因为整个估值都建立在xAI的进展之上，”查诺斯说。他将这种“新云”策略称为“大宗商品业务”，其在公开市场上的估值要低得多。

Ultimately, SpaceX’s I.P.O. will be a litmus test of investors’ faith in Mr. Musk, Mr. Gerber said. Those willing to pay will do so because Mr. Musk, who previously transformed the car industry with his electric carmaker Tesla, is at the helm of a one-of-a-kind company in SpaceX.

格伯表示，归根结底，SpaceX的IPO将是投资者对马斯克信任程度的一次考验。那些愿意出钱的人之所以这样做，是因为马斯克——这位曾凭借电动汽车制造商特斯拉颠覆汽车行业的人——在掌舵SpaceX这家独一无二的公司。

“People are paying a trillion dollars for Elon,” Mr. Gerber said.

“人们花1万亿买的是埃隆这个人，”格伯说。

Chinese security officers have arrested an American citizen who studies politics in Myanmar, an authoritarian nation on China’s southwest border, and accused him of endangering national security, according to people with knowledge of the arrest.

据知情人士透露，中国安全官员逮捕了一名研究缅甸政治的美国公民，并指控其危害国家安全。缅甸是与中国西南边境接壤的一个威权国家。

The U.S. citizen, U Min Zin, was arrested in early June, the people said. He disappeared on June 3 while in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province, which borders Myanmar. American diplomats are aware of the arrest.

知情人士称，这位名为敏辛(U Min Zin)的美国公民于6月上旬被捕。他于6月3日在邻近缅甸的云南省省会昆明失踪。美国外交官已知悉此事。

It is rare for China to arrest a U.S. citizen on charges of a national security crime, and the action against Mr. Min Zin takes place as President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, are trying to establish a type of partnership between the two nations.

中国以危害国家安全罪名逮捕美国公民的情况并不常见，而针对敏辛的这一行动正值特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平试图建立某种伙伴关系之际。

Mr. Min Zin is a political scientist and executive director of a policy research group originally based in Yangon, the former capital of Myanmar. The group has worked from different locations since a 2021 military coup in Myanmar. Over the years, he has spent time in both the United States and his home country of Myanmar, once known as Burma, and he now lives in Thailand.

敏辛是一位政治学家，也是一家政策研究机构的执行主任。该机构总部最初设在缅甸旧都仰光，2021年军事政变后在不同地点开展工作。多年来，他曾在美国和他的祖国缅甸两地居住，目前居住在泰国。

He has written essays on Myanmar politics for the opinion section of The New York Times, Foreign Policy and other news organizations.

他曾为《纽约时报》观点版、《外交政策》及其他新闻机构撰写关于缅甸政治的评论文章。

“We are aware of reports regarding a U.S. citizen detained in China,” the State Department said in a statement Thursday when asked about the arrest. “Whenever a U.S. citizen is detained, we work to provide the appropriate consular assistance.” It declined to give further details, citing federal privacy law.

周四在被问及此次逮捕时，美国国务院在一份声明中表示：“我们获悉了有关一名美国公民在中国被拘留的报告。每当有美国公民被拘留时，我们都会努力提供适当的领事协助。”出于联邦隐私法的规定，国务院拒绝提供更多细节。

Mr. Min Zin’s wife did not reply to an emailed request for comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington had no immediate comment.

敏辛的妻子未对电子邮件形式的置评请求做出回复。中国驻华盛顿大使馆未立即置评。

The arrest took place less than three weeks after President Trump attended a summit and state banquet in Beijing hosted by Mr. Xi. Mr. Trump praised Mr. Xi during the meetings and in interviews afterward, and he said he aimed to form a “G2” partnership with China, emphasizing cooperation rather than competition.

此次逮捕发生前不到三周，特朗普总统刚出席了北京峰会以及由习近平主持的国宴。特朗普在会谈中及随后的采访中对习近平大加赞赏，并表示他的目标是与中国建立“G2”伙伴关系，强调合作而非竞争。

Mr. Trump has long admired Mr. Xi, and he moved to accommodate China after its government retaliated against the United States during a trade war that Mr. Trump started last year.

特朗普长期以来一直赞赏习近平，去年由他发起的贸易战遭到中国政府反制后，他转而采取了迁就的姿态。

China’s arrest of another U.S. citizen and its use of a national security charge complicates that rapprochement. One American official said that although Chinese officials insist they are serious about trying to establish what the two governments call “constructive strategic stability,” this arrest undermines that effort.

中国逮捕又一名美国公民并使用危害国家安全罪名使这一和解进程复杂化。一名美国官员表示，尽管中国官员坚称他们对于试图建立两国政府所谓的“建设性战略稳定”是认真的，但这次逮捕破坏了这一努力。

China keeps about 200 American citizens under some form of detention, said John Kamm, the founder of the Dui Hua Foundation, which advocates for prisoner releases in China. Some Americans are imprisoned on drug charges, while others are prevented from leaving the country on “exit bans,” often because of commercial or financial disputes.

倡导释放中国在押人员的对话基金会创始人康原(John Kamm)表示，中国对大约200名美国公民采取了某种形式的拘留。一些美国人因涉毒罪名被判刑，另一些人则因商业或财务纠纷而受到“出境限制”，无法离境。

Mr. Kamm said he was unaware of any American currently held on a charge of endangering national security. Kai Li, who was convicted in 2016 of espionage, was among three Americans released by China in 2024 as part of a prisoner swap arranged by the Biden administration. Another American convicted of spying, Sandy Phan-Gillis, was expelled from the country in 2017 after having been detained for more than two years.

康原表示，据他所知，目前没有其他美国人因危害国家安全罪名被拘留。作为拜登政府安排的囚犯交换的一部分，曾于2016年因间谍罪被定罪的李凯是2024年被中国释放的三名美国人之一。另一名被判决犯有间谍罪的美国人潘婉芬(Sandy Phan-Gillis)在被拘禁两年多后，于2017年被驱逐出境。

Mr. Kamm said he had heard of an American citizen detained two months ago on accusations of an economic crime.

康原说，他听说两个月前有一名美国公民因涉嫌经济犯罪被拘留。

It is unclear why Chinese security officers in Yunnan Province arrested Mr. Min Zin. There was once a sizable presence of people from Myanmar in Yunnan, but that has dwindled since the pandemic. China has at times provided aid to some armed groups from Myanmar that operate on both sides of the border. But it is unclear whether Mr. Min Zin was involved in research or activities involving those people.

目前尚不清楚云南省的中国安全官员为何逮捕敏辛。云南曾有大量缅甸人聚集，但自疫情以来人数已有所减少。中国有时会向在边境两侧活动的一些缅甸武装组织提供援助。目前尚不清楚敏辛是否参与了涉及这些人员的研究或活动。

The Chinese Communist Party and government have a close relationship with the military-linked government that rules Myanmar. Mr. Min Zin wrote extensively on China’s role in the Myanmar government.

中国共产党和政府与统治缅甸的军方背景政府保持着密切关系。敏辛就中国在缅甸政府中所扮演的角色撰写了大量文章。

A Nepali research group said in an online post in May that Mr. Min Zin was scheduled to be a speaker at a policy and geopolitics forum in Nepal later this month. The speaker biography says his research group founded in Yangon, the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar, is “dedicated to promoting democratic leadership and strengthening civic participation in Myanmar.”

一家尼泊尔研究机构在5月的一则网络帖子中表示，敏辛原定于本月晚些时候在尼泊尔举行的政策与地缘政治论坛上担任发言人。发言人简介称，他在仰光创立的机构“缅甸战略与政策研究所”“致力于在缅甸促进民主领导力并加强公民参与”。

The biography also says he is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California at Berkeley, and his research interests include civil-military relations, democratization and ethnic conflicts. His LinkedIn page says he has a master’s degree in political science from Berkeley, which he attended from 2010 to 2016.

简介还介绍称，他是加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的政治学博士候选人，其研究兴趣包括军政关系、民主化和民族冲突。他的领英页面显示，他拥有伯克利分校的政治学硕士学位，并于2010年至2016年在该校就读。

The handful of opinion pieces he has written for The New York Times have focused on those topics. Several were published soon after the Tatmadaw, the military of Myanmar, overthrew the elected government in early 2021.

他为《纽约时报》撰写的为数不多的几篇评论文章主要集中在这些主题上。其中几篇是在缅甸军方于2021年初推翻民选政府后不久发表的。

In an essay in June 2021, he said that the military and the opposition appeared to be locked in an “intolerable stalemate,” and that the Tatmadaw “appears to believe it can force its way to and through a next election by way of brutal crackdowns, by dissolving the once-ruling National League for Democracy and by threatening to imprison Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s former de facto leader, for the rest of her life.”

在2021年6月的一篇文章中，他指出军方与反对派似乎陷入了“无法忍受的僵局”，并且缅甸军方“似乎认为自己可以通过残酷镇压、解散曾经执政的全国民主联盟，以及威胁终生监禁该国前事实上的领导人昂山素季等方式强行推进下一次选举。”

At the same time, he wrote, the anti-coup movement, which included Gen Z protesters and civil servants, “has been shifting tactics away from predominantly peaceful demonstrations to more violent kinds of resistance.”

与此同时他写道，由Z世代抗议者和公职人员组成的反政变运动“策略已经从主要是和平示威转向更具暴力性质的抵抗”。

What Mr. Min Zin observed and predicted then has unfolded with force, and Myanmar is now engulfed in a civil war. The Myanmar military carries out airstrikes on civilian areas using Chinese and Russian-made weapons.

敏辛当时所观察和预测的情况随后鲜明地展现出来，缅甸如今已陷入内战。缅甸军方使用中国和俄罗斯制造的武器对平民地区实施空袭。

In recent years, U.S. officials have pressed for the release of some American citizens held in China, as well as for the liberation of several prominent non-American prisoners: Jimmy Lai, a British citizen and newspaper founder imprisoned by the Hong Kong authorities; Jin Mingri, a Chinese pastor with the English name of Ezra; and Dong Yuyu, a Chinese journalist and former Harvard fellow convicted on espionage charges widely believed to be false.

近年来，美国官员曾敦促释放一些被中国关押的美国公民，并呼吁释放几位知名的非美国籍囚犯：被香港当局监禁的英国公民、报社创办人黎智英；英文名为Ezra的中国牧师金明日；以及因间谍罪名被定罪（人们普遍认为这一指控不实）的中国记者、前哈佛大学研究员董郁玉。

Mr. Trump has said he plans to host Mr. Xi in Washington around Sept. 24 for a reciprocal visit.

特朗普表示，他计划于9月24日前后在华盛顿接待习近平回访。

Mr. Kamm said he was not hopeful that the summits would lead to prisoner releases by China.

康原表示，他对首脑会晤促成中国释放囚犯不抱太大希望。

“Human rights is not a priority for the U.S. government now in its dealings with China,” he said. “I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see any evidence to the contrary.”

“人权目前在美国政府同中国打交道时并不是优先事项，”他说。“我希望我是错的，但我没有看到任何相反的证据。”

The cycle of violence and right-wing agitation in Britain has become all too frightening and frequent.

英国暴力事件和右翼煽动频发，场面令人惊骇。

It can start with a stabbing, horrific in nature, that causes fear and anger. Condemnation from political leaders and law enforcement swiftly follows.

首先往往是一场性质极其恶劣的持刀伤人事件，从而引发恐惧与愤怒。随后，政治领导人和执法部门会迅速予以谴责。

But when the attacker is an immigrant or a person of color, a malign, distorted narrative often explodes onto the internet. Right-wing politicians and commentators seize on it to foment outrage in support of their anti-immigrant agenda, aided by social media algorithms that feed on conflict and division. Within hours, the anger they stoke online has jumped to the real world, setting off protests that become angry riots.

但只要袭击者是移民或有色人种，一种带有恶意且歪曲事实的叙事便往往会在互联网上轰然炸开。右翼政治和评论人士会借此煽动愤怒，以支持他们的反移民政治议程，那些靠冲突和分裂来获取流量的社交媒体算法则在其中推波助澜。在几个小时内，他们在网络上挑起的愤怒就会蔓延至现实世界，引发演变成愤怒暴动的抗议活动。

There are pleas for calm and promises of action by government and law enforcement. But soon afterward, the cycle begins again.

政府和执法部门会呼吁保持冷静并承诺采取行动。但不久之后，一切又会重新开始。

Twice in the last 10 days, vicious knife attacks in England and Northern Ireland have followed that pattern. On Tuesday and Wednesday, protesters in Belfast who were furious about an attack by a Sudanese refugee set fire to cars and property and hurled objects at the police. That followed a night of angry rioting in Southampton last week after new video was released in the murder in December of an 18-year-old college student who was falsely accused by his attacker of having perpetrated a racist assault.

过去10天里，英格兰和北爱尔兰发生的两次恶性刀刺袭击事件都遵循了这一模式。周二和周三，被一名苏丹难民的袭击事件激怒的抗议者在贝尔法斯特纵火焚烧汽车和房屋，并向警察投掷物品。在此之前，南安普敦上周刚刚经历了一个愤怒的骚乱之夜，当时有关去年12月一名18岁大学生被杀的新视频被公开，该学生曾被袭击者诬陷实施了种族主义袭击。

“There’s a playbook,” said Ciarán O’Connor, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which researches extremism, hate and disinformation globally. “An incident of violence like this is identified and rapidly amplified by not just a domestic but a global, transnational, far-right ecosystem who use such incidents to absorb them into their own kind of international narrative.”

“这套路是有剧本的，”专注于全球极端主义、仇恨和虚假信息研究的战略对话研究所高级分析师基兰·奥康纳说。“像这样的暴力事件一旦发生，不仅国内，全球跨国的极右翼生态系统都会迅速锁定并将其放大，他们利用这类事件将其吸收到他们自己的那套国际叙事当中。”

He said the dynamic has become “alarmingly familiar and even predictable.”

他表示，这种动态已经变得“令人警惕地熟悉，甚至是可以预见的”。

Britain is not alone. Across Europe and in the United States, ascendant right-wing political groups are amplifying the frustration and anger that people feel in the wake of a scary episode, and funneling it toward hostility to immigrants. Researchers say the pattern is followed by members of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in Germany and France’s National Rally Party.

英国并非特例。在整个欧洲以及美国，力量正处于上升期的右翼政治团体正在放大人们在可怕事件发生后的沮丧与愤怒，并将其引向对移民的敌意。研究人员表示，德国的极右翼政党德国选择党以及法国的国民联盟党的成员也在遵循这一模式。

“We have moved from stoking hatred online to actually bringing it into the streets in a variety of ways,” said Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University. “We’re certainly seeing a blurring between this online world and what is happening in the real world, and, and part of the problem is that the political class doesn’t quite seem to know how to deal with it.”

卡迪夫大学政治学讲师玛尔塔·洛里默表示：“我们已经从在网络上煽动仇恨发展到了通过各种方式真正将仇恨带向街头。我们当然看到了这个虚拟网络世界与现实世界正在发生的事件之间界限正变得模糊，而且，部分问题在于政治阶层似乎根本不知道该如何应对这一局面。”

Ms. Lorimer said Britain is especially vulnerable because it shares the English language with the United States, which she said makes it easier for right-wing groups there to use the American-based social media companies to stoke anger from afar.

洛里默指出，英国尤其易受其害，因为它与美国通用英语，她认为这使得美国的右翼团体更容易利用总部设在美国的社交媒体公司，从远方煽动愤怒。

That was the case on Tuesday, when Elon Musk, the owner of X, called for people to “REPEATEDLY and LOUDLY” protest in Belfast. He highlighted an image that listed protest locations distributed by Tommy Robinson, an anti-Muslim agitator in Britain with multiple criminal convictions.

周二的情况正是如此，当时X的所有者埃隆·马斯克呼吁人们在贝尔法斯特进行“反复且大声”的抗议。他特别转引了一张列有抗议地点的图片，该图片是由存在多项刑事犯罪前科的英国反穆斯林煽动分子汤米·罗宾逊散布的。

“The whole of the United Kingdom is hitting the streets tonight at 7pm following yet another invader attack on our people,” Mr. Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, wrote on X.

罗宾逊（其真实姓名是斯蒂芬·雅克斯利-列侬）在X上写道：“今晚7点，随着又一起针对我们人民的入侵者袭击事件发生，整个联合王国都在走上街头。”

Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s populist, right-wing Reform U.K. Party, has used both of the recent knife attacks to push his anti-immigrant policy agenda. The party has become a major political force in Britain, winning local races across the country last month and consistently topping national election polls. That recent success gives him more political clout than he had a decade ago when his party was on the fringe of British politics.

英国民粹主义右翼政党英国改革党的领导人奈杰尔·法拉奇利用最近发生的这两起持刀袭击事件来推进其反移民政策议程。该党已成为英国的一股主要政治力量，上个月在全国各地赢得许多地方选举，并在全国选举民意调查中持续领跑。近期的成功使他拥有了比十年前更强大的政治影响力，当时他的政党还处于英国政治的边缘地带。

Speaking on Wednesday, Mr. Farage described the knife attack in Belfast as an attempted “beheading,” adopting language used on the internet despite the fact that no law enforcement or government official has publicly called it that. In that case, the police charged Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese man, with stabbing Stephen Ogilvie in the head, the back and the neck, costing Mr. Ogilvie his eye.

在周三的讲话中，法拉奇使用网上流传的说法，将贝尔法斯特的持刀袭击形容为一起企图“斩首”的事件，尽管没有任何执法部门或政府官员在公开场合这样定性过。在这起案件中，警方指控30岁的苏丹裔男子哈迪·阿洛迪德刺伤了斯蒂芬·奥格尔维的头部、背部和颈部，导致奥格尔维失去了一只眼睛。

“There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this man should not have been in this country,” Mr. Farage said, even though authorities said Mr. Alodid was in the country legally.

法拉奇说：“在我看来，毫无疑问，这个人根本不应该留在这个国家，”尽管当局表示阿洛迪德在英国拥有合法身份。

Sundar Katwala, the director of British Future, a think tank that focuses on issues of identity, said politicians like Mr. Farage are increasingly using what Mr. Katwala called “flashpoint moments” to appeal to the part of his base who want him to embrace more aggressive language.

专注于身份认同议题的智库“英国未来”的总监桑德·卡特瓦拉表示，像法拉奇这样的政治人物正越来越多地利用他称为“导火索时刻”的事件，迎合其选民群体中希望他们使用更具攻击性语言的那部分人。

There were roughly 500 homicides in Britain last year, many of them shocking. But if the victim isn’t white, or the crime doesn’t fit a narrative that will demonize immigrants, it is not seized on to stoke angry protests.

去年英国大约发生了500起凶杀案，其中许多案件令人震惊。但如果受害者不是白人，或者罪行不符合那种能将移民妖魔化的叙事，它就不会被利用来煽动愤怒的抗议活动。

Other politicians have urged restraint and calm, while trying to acknowledge the appalling nature of the knife attacks. In Parliament on Wednesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Monday’s attack on Mr. Ogilvie in Belfast and the violence in the streets that followed on Tuesday night.

其他政治人物则敦促保持克制与冷静，同时也努力去承认这些持刀袭击事件的骇人性质。在周三的议会上，首相基尔·斯塔默谴责了周一对奥格尔维的袭击，以及紧随其后在周二晚上发生的街头暴力事件。

“We are all sickened by this attack, but the seeds of violence and disorder have no justification,” he said.

“我们都对这次袭击感到恶心，但不能因此播下暴力和混乱的种子，”他说。

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, said on X that “people have a right to be angry. And people have the right to expect their politicians to secure our borders.” But she called the scenes of rioting in Belfast “deeply disturbing” and said that “no one has a right to burn families out of their homes.”

保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺赫在X上表示：“人民有权感到愤怒。人民有权期望他们的政治家能够捍卫我们的边境。”但她称贝尔法斯特的暴动画面“令人深感不安”，并表示“任何人都无权用纵火将一个个家庭逐出家园”。

Ofcom, which regulates the communications industry in Britain, has warned online service providers that they have a duty to ensure that they do not spread illegal content that could inflame a crisis — by inciting violence, for example. In an open letter on Wednesday, the agency wrote that “we are already contacting individual providers where we believe there are specific risks around the presence of illegal content relating to the civil unrest.”

英国通信业监管机构英国通信管理局已向网络服务提供商发出警告，称他们有责任确保自己不会传播可能激化危机的非法内容——例如煽动暴力。在周三的一封公开信中，该机构写道：“在我们认为围绕与民乱相关的非法内容存在特定风险的地方，我们已经在与各个提供商取得联系。”

But those efforts have done little to curb the spread of incendiary and often misleading information on the platforms. Mr. O’Connor, of the Strategic Dialogue institute, said his organization found repeated instances this week of Facebook pages with sketchy claims that the Belfast attacker said “praise be God” in Arabic during the attack.

但这些努力几乎无法遏制这些平台上煽动性且往往具有误导性的信息的传播。战略对话研究所的奥康纳表示，他的组织本周反复发现一些脸书页面上的可疑言论，声称贝尔法斯特的袭击者在袭击期间用阿拉伯语高喊了“赞美真主”。

Experts who study the online platforms say that they are providing forums for right-wing politicians to become more a part of the mainstream.

研究网络平台的专家表示，这些平台正为右翼政治家提供走向主流的舞台。

“The stuff that we’re hearing today, 20 years ago, would have been considered absolutely fringe, completely wild things that only the more extremist political parties would ever defend,” Ms. Lorimer said.

洛里默说：“我们今天听到的这些内容在20年前会被视为绝对边缘、完全疯狂的言论，只有那些更极端的政党才会去辩护。”

At the same time, she said, liberal and centrist politicians like Mr. Starmer in Britain and some Democrats in the United States are feeling pressure to move to the right with policies that respond to the concerns of angry, frustrated voters.

与此同时，她表示，像英国的斯塔默和美国的一些民主党人这样的自由主义和温和中派政治家，正感受到向右转的压力，不得不出台政策来回应愤怒、沮丧的选民的关切。

That forces the right to “double down into even more extreme policies that then in turn become normalized,” she said. “You really end up in a situation where it escalates quite quickly, and that’s very much where we are right now.”

这反过来又迫使右翼“加倍推行更极端的政策，而这些政策随后又变得常态化”，她指出。“你真的会陷入一种局势升级极其迅速的境地，而这正是我们目前的处境。”

The war in Ukraine has often been compared to World War I for its brutal infantry assaults and heavy casualties. Yet the idea that it could, by any measure, surpass a conflict so long and bloody that French soldiers hoped it would be “the last of the last” once seemed unthinkable.

乌克兰战争常被拿来与第一次世界大战相提并论，两者都有残酷的步兵冲锋和惨重的人员伤亡。然而，人们曾一度认为，无论从哪个角度衡量，这场战争都不可能超过第一次世界大战——那场冲突如此漫长而血腥，以至于法国士兵曾希望它会成为“最后一场战争中的最后一场”。

That is just what happened on Thursday. The war in Ukraine — which reached 1,569 days, or more than four years and three months — has now outlasted World War I.

但就在周四，这成为了现实。截至当天，乌克兰战争已持续1569天，即四年零三个多月，其时长已超过第一次世界大战。

When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia sent his troops into Ukraine in February 2022, he believed the country would fall within days. After Ukraine pushed the Russians back and the conflict settled into a war of attrition, even many of those fighting could not imagine it would last this long.

2022年2月，俄罗斯总统普京下令出兵乌克兰，以为数日之内便可将其拿下。乌克兰将俄军击退、冲突演变为消耗战之后，即使是许多参战者也无法想象战争会持续这么久。

“I thought maybe two or three years, and then politicians will find some kind of consensus,” said a Ukrainian soldier who, for security reasons, gave only his call sign, France, a nod to his time in the French Foreign Legion.

“我以为也许两三年，政客们就会找到某种共识，”一名乌克兰士兵说——出于安全考量，他只透露了自己的呼号“法兰西”，这个名字源于他曾在法国外籍军团服役的经历。

But the war has raged on, and, with peace talks stalled, it shows no sign of ending soon. Polls suggest that about half of Ukrainians believe it will not end before next year, which would push it closer to another threshold: the duration of World War II, which lasted six years. And there are many Ukrainians who would argue that the current war really began in 2014 when Russian troops seized Crimea.

然而战火持续燃烧，和谈陷入僵局，丝毫没有即将结束的迹象。民调显示，约半数乌克兰民众认为战争在明年之前不会结束，这将使其时长逼近另一个门槛：历时六年的第二次世界大战。而许多乌克兰人会说，这场战争实际上早在2014年俄军占领克里米亚时便已开始。

Historians caution that drawing parallels with the two world wars has limits. The global scale of those conflicts, involving many theaters and armies, makes comparisons about casualties and firepower difficult. Ukraine did not exist as a country during World War I.

历史学家提醒说，将乌克兰战争与两次世界大战进行比较存在局限性。那两场战争横跨多个战场、席卷众多国家，在伤亡规模和火力对比上难以直接比较。而且第一次世界大战期间，乌克兰尚不是一个独立国家。

Still, the war in Ukraine, like World War I, is likely to rank among the most consequential conflicts in modern European history, said Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian. Both wars transformed Europe’s geopolitics by reshaping military alliances and driving a defense buildup not seen in decades.

尽管如此，乌克兰历史学家雅罗斯拉夫·赫里察克认为，乌克兰战争与第一次世界大战一样，很可能跻身现代欧洲史上影响最为深远的冲突之列。两场战争都通过重塑军事联盟、推动数十年来罕见的大规模军备扩张，从根本上改变了欧洲的地缘政治格局。

Military analysts also note that both conflicts reshaped the nature of warfare through the introduction of new technologies — planes and tanks a century ago; drones across the air, sea and land today. In both cases, the advances made war only more brutal for humans.

军事分析人士还指出，两场冲突都借助新技术的引入重塑了战争形态——一个世纪前是飞机和坦克，如今则是穿梭于海陆空的无人机。而在这两种情形下，技术进步都让战争对人类而言变得更加残酷。

“In many respects, this war in Ukraine is the one that most closely resembles World War I,” said Michel Goya, a former French colonel and a military historian.

“从许多方面来看，乌克兰这场战争与第一次世界大战最为相似，”法国前上校、军事史专家米歇尔·戈亚说。

The comparison begins with the opening phase of both wars. In 1914, the Germans launched a rapid offensive toward Paris in the hope of securing a swift victory. Russian forces had the same objective when they raced toward Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in 2022. In both cases, the attackers came close to their target but were ultimately driven back.

这种比较首先体现在两场战争的开局阶段。1914年，德国向巴黎发动闪电战，希望速战速决。2022年，俄军如出一辙，同样以迅雷之势直扑乌克兰首都基辅。在这两种情况下，进攻方都一度逼近目标，但最终被击退。

Eventually, both wars settled into mostly static fighting along a largely frozen front. When soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefield hunkered down in trenches and bunkers in late 2022, historians described it as a return to World War I-style trench warfare.

此后，两场战争都演变为沿着基本没有变化的战线展开的阵地战。2022年底，当乌克兰战场上的士兵蜷缩在战壕和掩体中时，历史学家将其描述为第一次世界大战式堑壕战的重现。

Scenes from the trenches of eastern Ukraine closely echoed those in northern France a century earlier. Ukrainian and Russian troops were often separated by just a few hundred yards, sometimes close enough to see one another. Assaults began with artillery barrages to pin down the opponent, followed by the storming of enemy trenches by infantry squads.

乌克兰东部战壕里的场景与一个世纪前法国北部的场景如出一辙。乌军与俄军士兵常常只相隔几百米，有时近到能看见对方。进攻以炮火压制开始，随后步兵小分队冲击敌方战壕。

“In general, when the front freezes, you’re back to World War I,” Mr. Goya said.

“总体而言，战线一旦坚持不动，你就回到了第一次世界大战，”戈亚说。

In both wars, he added, it was the intensity of firepower, mainly artillery, that forced armies to turn to trenches. “You bury yourself to protect yourself,” he said.

他补充道，在两场战争中，迫使军队钻进战壕的原因都是火力强度，尤其是炮兵火力。“你把自己埋起来是为了保护自己，”他说。

That calculus later changed in Ukraine with the introduction of a new class of weapon: drones. Networks of open trenches were rendered unsafe as drones monitored the battlefield around the clock and struck with greater precision than artillery shells.

然而在乌克兰，随着一类新式武器——无人机——的登场，这种战场逻辑发生了改变。开放式战壕网络变得极不安全，因为无人机能够全天候监视战场，打击精度远超炮弹。

Now, Ukrainian soldiers say, survival depends on going smaller and deeper. Instead of sprawling trench systems, troops shelter in dugouts housing no more than a handful of soldiers. Such bunkers are small enough to be difficult to spot from the sky and deep enough to withstand strikes. A soldier operating on his own will often dig a position barely larger than a foxhole.

乌克兰士兵现在说，要想生存就必须把掩体建得更小、更深。与其修建绵延的大型战壕系统，士兵们更倾向于躲藏在只能容纳几个人的小型地下掩体中。这些掩体足够小，难以从空中发现；同时又足够深，可以承受打击。单兵作战时，往往只挖一个略大于散兵坑的藏身之处。

In a recent interview near Ukraine’s southern front, a Ukrainian commander, who also only gave his call sign, Sour, for security reasons, recalled how his troops had to storm a well-fortified Russian dugout four times before forcing the soldier inside to surrender. The dugout had right-angled corners reinforced with metal sheets designed to absorb an explosive shock wave, he said.

近期在乌克兰南部战线附近的一次采访中，一名乌克兰指挥官（同样出于安全原因只透露了呼号“酸”）回忆起他的部队四度强攻一处工事坚固的俄军掩体，才逼得里面的士兵投降。他说，那处掩体设有直角转折结构，并以金属板加固，专门用于吸收爆炸冲击波。

The commander, who leads the 5th Center of the International Legion, part of Ukraine’s military intelligence forces, said he took the captured Russian soldier to his unit’s training ground and asked him to dig a similar position so he could study how it was built.

这名隶属于乌克兰军事情报部队国际军团第五中心的指挥官表示，他将被俘的俄罗斯士兵带到训练场，让其挖掘一处同样的掩体，以便研究构造。

“In this environment, the people who dig survive longer and stay safer,” France, the Ukrainian soldier, said.

“在这种环境下，会挖掩体的人活得更久，也更安全，”那名呼号为“法兰西”的乌克兰士兵说。

As drones have come to dominate the battlefield, World War I-style opposing trench networks, separated by a narrow buffer zone, have given way to a miles-wide contested combat area scattered with dugouts. In this “kill zone,” any movement is quickly targeted by drones.

随着无人机主宰战场，一战时期那种由狭窄缓冲区隔开的两军对垒战壕网络已让位于纵深数英里、遍布分散掩体的争夺区域。在这片“死亡地带”，任何移动都会迅速遭到无人机锁定。

Large-scale troop assaults of the kind seen a century ago have become all but impossible under the constant gaze of drones. Such assaults have been replaced with attacks by just one or two soldiers.

在无人机的持续监视下，一个世纪前那种大规模步兵冲锋几乎已成历史，取而代之的是一两名士兵组成的小规模袭击行动。

Tanks, first introduced in 1916, were still a feared weapon in the first years of the war in Ukraine. They are rarely used now because their size makes them easy targets for drones, though some tanks have been retrofitted with protective metal cages that turn them into “Mad Max”-style vehicles.

1916年首次亮相的坦克在乌克兰战争初期仍是令人胆寒的武器，如今却鲜少使用——庞大的体积使其极易成为无人机的靶子，尽管部分坦克已加装金属防护笼，摇身变为“疯狂麦克斯”式的战车。

While the battlefield today bears less and less resemblance to that of a century ago, the scale of the destruction looks remarkably similar.

虽然今天的战场与一个世纪前的相似之处越来越少，但破坏的规模却惊人地相似。

In Ukrainian command posts near the front, live footage from reconnaissance drones shows scenes reminiscent of World War I battlefields: splintered trees, ruined houses and fields pockmarked by shell craters.

在靠近前线的乌克兰指挥所内，侦察无人机传回的实时画面呈现出与第一次世界大战战场如出一辙的景象：东倒西歪的树桩、毁坏的房屋，以及布满弹坑的田野。

Casualties are difficult to compare, given the difference in scale between the two wars. A century ago, millions of soldiers were sent into battle across multiple fronts in Europe. Today, the forces involved number in the hundreds of thousands. Roughly nine million to 11 million soldiers died in World War I, compared with about half a million in Ukraine so far.

鉴于两场战争的规模不同，伤亡数字难以直接比较。一个世纪前，数百万士兵被派往欧洲多个战场作战。今天，参战兵力在数十万左右。一战中约有900万至1100万士兵死亡，而到目前为止，乌克兰战争约有50万人死亡。

Still, military analysts and officials, including Adm. Pierre Vandier, who holds the post of Supreme Allied Commander Transformation in NATO, say drones have made the Ukrainian battlefield lethal at levels comparable to World War I. Admiral Vandier made the comparison after a study trip to Ukraine this spring.

尽管如此，包括北约盟军转型最高司令部司令皮埃尔·旺迪耶上将在内的军事分析人士和官员认为，无人机已经让乌克兰战场的致命程度达到与第一次世界大战相当的水平。旺迪耶上将在今春赴乌克兰实地考察后作出了这一评价。

So grinding is the fighting in Ukraine that Russian advances have at times been slower than those in some of World War I’s most deadlocked battles.

乌克兰的战事如此胶着，以至于俄军的推进速度有时甚至慢于第一次世界大战中若干最为僵持的战役。

Russia’s offensive on Pokrovsk, an eastern Ukrainian city it recently fully captured, progressed at an average pace of about 75 yards per day, slower than in the bloody Battle of the Somme during World War I, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

根据位于华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心的分析，俄罗斯最近完全占领乌克兰东部城市波克罗夫斯克的攻势，平均推进速度约为每天70米，比“一战”中血腥惨烈的索姆河战役还要慢。

The question now is whether either side can break the deadlock.

眼下的问题是，哪一方能够打破僵局。

In World War I, the Allies prevailed by combining economic pressure on Germany through a tight naval blockade with military pressure through relentless offensives.

在第一次世界大战中，协约国凭借严密的海上封锁对德国施加经济压力，同时以不间断的军事攻势形成双重挤压，最终赢得胜利。

Ukraine’s strategy to end the war carries some echoes of that approach.

乌克兰当前结束战争的战略也带有这种思路的影子。

Drone strikes on Russia’s oil assets, the backbone of its economy, are designed to curb Moscow’s ability to finance its war effort. Kyiv lacks the manpower to replicate the offensives of World War I, but it has flooded the battlefield with small attack drones in the hope of inflicting unsustainable losses on the Russian Army.

通过无人机打击俄罗斯经济的支柱——石油资产，乌克兰旨在削弱莫斯科为其战争机器提供资金的能力。基辅缺乏复制一战中那种攻势的人力，但它在战场上大量投放小型攻击无人机，希望以此给俄军造成难以承受的持续损耗。

“This is World War I, but with drones,” Mr. Hrytsak, the historian, said.

“这就是第一次世界大战，只不过加上了无人机，”历史学家赫里察克说。

When SpaceX starts trading this week, one group will be noticeably absent from the frenzy: investors from China and Hong Kong. They are also likely to miss out on the upcoming initial public offering for OpenAI.

当SpaceX于本周开始上市交易时，狂热的人群中将明显缺少一个群体：来自中国大陆和香港的投资者。他们很可能也会错过OpenAI即将进行的首次公开募股。

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker and artificial intelligence company, has excluded investors in China and Hong Kong from participating in its I.P.O., according to five people with knowledge of the decision, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

据五位知情人士透露，埃隆·马斯克旗下的火箭制造及人工智能公司SpaceX已将中国大陆和香港的投资者排除在其首次公开募股的参与范围之外。由于未获授权公开表态，这些人士要求不具名。

OpenAI, another leading A.I. company, is likely to impose the same restriction when it goes public this year, said three people with knowledge of the discussion. The company has already barred Chinese investors from participating in private fund-raising rounds, one of those people said.

三位了解相关讨论的人士表示，另一家领先的人工智能公司OpenAI在今年上市时，也很可能会施加同样的限制。其中一人透露，该公司此前已经禁止了中国投资者参与其私募轮。

The A.I. companies have not disclosed why they are hesitant to accept investments from the region, and it’s unclear whether the move is being made with input from the Trump administration. But Washington has been focused on keeping artificial intelligence out of China’s reach. Both companies count the U.S. government as major clients.

这些人工智能公司尚未披露它们为何不愿接受来自该地区的投资，目前也不清楚这一举动是否受到特朗普政府的影响。但华盛顿方面一直致力于让中国无法获取人工智能技术。这两家公司都将美国政府视为其主要客户。

While Chinese investors have largely been shut out of private investments in sensitive sectors for years, this is most likely the first time investors in mainland China and Hong Kong have been excluded from a major American I.P.O., bankers in the region say.

该地区的银行家们表示，尽管多年来中国投资者在敏感领域的私募投资基本上已被隔绝，但这很可能是中国大陆和香港的投资者首次被排除在大型美国公司的首次公开募股之外。

It highlights how the United States and China have steadily scaled back trade, investment and collaboration — especially in sensitive sectors involving technology and science.

这凸显了美国和中国是如何在稳步缩减贸易、投资与合作的——尤其是在涉及技术和科学的敏感领域。

“The restrictions reflect a broader trend among American technology and A.I. companies, many of which have become increasingly reluctant to accept Chinese investment, driven by concerns over national security, intellectual property protection and data governance,” said Han Lin, a director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm, and a former senior Wells Fargo banker in China.

咨询机构亚洲集团主管、前富国银行驻华高级银行家林汉昇表示：“这些限制反映了美国技术和人工智能公司之间的一个整体趋势，出于对国家安全、知识产权保护和数据治理的担忧，许多公司越来越不愿意接受中国的投资。”

News that SpaceX would bar Chinese investors from its I.P.O. was reported earlier by Bloomberg.

有关SpaceX将禁止中国投资者参与其首次公开募股的消息此前已由彭博社报道。

As recently as last month, investors from mainland China and Hong Kong were allowed to participate in the blockbuster I.P.O. of Cerebras, an American maker of chips used to train artificial intelligence models.

就在上个月，来自中国大陆和香港的投资者还被允许参与Cerebras大获成功的首次公开募股，这是一家制造人工智能模型训练芯片的美国公司。

But Washington and Beijing have been rapidly erecting barriers to trade and investment, complicating matters for investors and the banks that help facilitate cross-border deals.

但华盛顿和北京方面一直在迅速筑起贸易和投资壁垒，使投资者以及协助促进跨境交易的银行面临更加复杂化的局面。

Last week, China tightened restrictions on the flow of money out of the country and announced plans to screen companies seeking to expand overseas, blocking plans for companies deemed strategically important.

上周，中国收紧了对资金外流的限制，并宣布计划对寻求向海外扩张的公司进行审查，从而阻断了被认为具有战略重要性的公司的计划。

Several weeks earlier, the House Select Committee on China accused JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley of failing to conduct adequate due diligence when helping Chinese companies go public.

就在几周前，众议院中国问题特设委员会指责摩根大通、美国银行和摩根士丹利在协助中国公司上市时未能进行充分的尽职调查。

Staying on the right side of the U.S. government is especially important for SpaceX and OpenAI. It is SpaceX’s biggest customer, accounting for roughly $4 billion in revenue last year. This year, OpenAI announced that it would provide artificial intelligence technologies for the Defense Department’s classified systems.

与美国政府保持良好的关系对SpaceX和OpenAI来说尤为重要。美国政府是SpaceX最大的客户，去年为其带来了约40亿美元的收入。今年，OpenAI宣布它将为国防部的机密系统提供人工智能技术。

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has used industrial policy to strengthen his country’s control over critical supply chains and industries, part of a broader push for self-reliance that Beijing views as a national security imperative. The policies have strengthened China’s dominance in global trade and heightened tensions with the United States.

中国最高领导人习近平利用产业政策强化了本国对关键供应链和行业的控制，这是北京视为国家安全要务的自给自足总体努力的一部分。这些政策巩固了中国在全球贸易中的主导地位，并加剧了与美国的紧张关系。

During his first term, President Trump used tariffs and other measures to pressure companies to move manufacturing out of China. The Biden administration expanded those efforts, restricting U.S. investment in Chinese quantum computing, semiconductors and A.I. in an effort to slow China’s technological advances.

在其第一任期内，特朗普总统曾利用关税等措施施压企业将制造业迁出中国。拜登政府扩大了这些努力，限制美国在华投资量子计算、半导体和人工智能，以此试图减缓中国的技术进步。

Washington also reviews foreign investments and acquisitions in sensitive sectors through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. The Pentagon maintains a blacklist of companies that it says support China’s military, including major technology companies such as Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu, as well as the electric vehicle maker BYD.

华盛顿还通过美国外资投资委员会审查敏感领域的外国投资和收购。五角大楼维持着一份据称支持中国军方的企业黑名单，其中包括腾讯、阿里巴巴和百度等大型科技公司，以及电动汽车制造商比亚迪。

China has responded by building its own web of export controls and investment restrictions, measures that American and European companies say have made it increasingly difficult to do business in China.

中国对此做出的回应是建立了自己的出口管制和投资限制网络，美国和欧洲企业表示，这些措施使得在华开展业务变得越来越困难。

But any moves by SpaceX and OpenAI appear to be voluntary, said Aaron Bartnick, who was a White House tech policy official during the Biden administration.

但曾在拜登政府担任白宫技术政策官员的亚伦·巴特尼克表示，SpaceX和OpenAI的任何举动似乎都属于自愿行为。

“This is a very clear sign of not just the trade decoupling but also the technology and capital decoupling that is occurring between the U.S. and China,” he said.

“这不仅是贸易脱钩的明确信号，也是美中之间正在发生的技术和资本脱钩的明确信号，”他说。

Mr. Bartnick, who oversaw policy on CFIUS and outbound investment controls, said the decisions by leading technology companies could become a template for the industry. He said he would not be surprised if others followed suit, including Anthropic, which announced its plans to go public last week.

负责监管外资投资委员会政策及对外投资管制的巴特尼克表示，领先科技公司的决策可能会成为该行业的模板。他表示，如果其他公司纷纷效仿，包括上周宣布计划上市的Anthropic，他不会感到惊讶。

“It is tempting to label this an overreaction because it appears to be voluntary,” Mr. Bartnick said. “But a lot of American companies will look to companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX as leaders.”

“人们很容易会觉得这是反应过度，因为这看起来是出于自愿的，”巴特尼克说。“但许多美国公司会把OpenAI、Anthropic和SpaceX这样的公司视为领导者。”

Japan led the world in robotics for decades.

几十年来，日本在机器人领域一直引领世界。

More than 50 years ago, Japanese researchers captured imaginations with the first robot capable of grasping objects and walking on two legs. In 1984, a team in Japan built one that could read sheet music and play the piano. When Honda unveiled its first humanoid in 2000, it seemed to cement the country’s lead.

五十多年前，日本研究人员推出了全球首台能够抓取物体并用双腿行走的机器人，令人啧啧称奇。1984年，日本的一个团队制造出一台能够识读乐谱并弹奏钢琴的机器人。2000年，本田推出其首款人形机器人，似乎巩固了日本的领先地位。

But now, just as tech investors, start-up founders and government officials around the world are betting that artificial intelligence will spur growth for robots, that lead no longer belongs to Japan.

但如今，就在世界各地的科技投资者、初创公司创始人和政府官员都押注人工智能将推动机器人增长之际，这一领先地位已不再属于日本。

It belongs to China.

它属于中国。

Last month at the Humanoids Summit, a robotics conference in Tokyo, what could have been a victory lap for an industry built on decades of development and investment instead centered on a different topic: how Japanese companies can break through in a market increasingly dominated by Chinese rivals.

上个月在东京举行的人形机器人峰会本应成为这个建立在数十年发展和投资基础上的产业的胜利庆典，但峰会聚焦的却是另一个主题：日本企业如何在日益被中国竞争对手主导的市场中突围。

Investors urged Japanese companies to find niches where they could compete even if they couldn’t match Chinese firms on price. A dancing robot from China’s Unitree Robotics drew the largest crowds. Two Japanese firms also used Unitree robots to demonstrate their software.

投资者敦促日本企业寻找能够与中国竞争的利基市场，尽管它们无法在价格上与中国企业匹敌。一款来自中国企业宇树科技的舞蹈机器人吸引了最多的观众。两家日本公司还使用宇树的机器人来展示自己的软件。

Chinese manufacturers dominate the humanoid robot supply chain. Start-ups like Unitree are producing thousands of humanoids that sell for less than $5,000 each, a pace and price that competitors in Japan and elsewhere struggle to match. Chinese robots once depended on Japanese and other foreign suppliers for components such as sensors and joints. But these days, those parts are made in China, too.

中国制造商主导了人形机器人供应链。宇树等初创公司正在生产数千台人形机器人，每台售价不到5000美元，这种速度和价格让日本及其他地区的竞争对手难以匹敌。中国机器人曾经依赖日本和其他外国供应商提供传感器和关节等零部件。但如今，这些零部件也已在中国制造。

It has become nearly impossible to build a humanoid robot without parts from Chinese companies, said Ming Hsun Lee, the head of greater China autos and industrials at BofA Global Research, a unit of Bank of America.

美国银行旗下的美银全球研究大中华区汽车与工业研究主管李明勋表示，如今几乎不可能在不使用中国产零部件的情况下制造出一台人形机器人。

“The component cost in China has gone down way too fast — other countries can’t compete,” Mr. Lee said.

“中国的零部件成本下降得实在太快了——其他国家无法竞争，”李明勋说。

But making humanoid robots has proved easier to achieve than finding a purpose for them. Even robotics executives acknowledge that today’s models are far from performing the types of jobs that have fueled the industry’s excitement.

但事实证明，制造人形机器人比为它们找到用途更容易。即使是机器人行业高管也承认，目前的模型还远不能完成那些可以激发产业兴趣的工作。

And though the promise of humanoids remains unfulfilled, China has established a commanding lead in a segment of the robotics industry that is economically useful: factory automation.

虽然人形机器人的承诺尚未兑现，但中国已在机器人行业中一个具有经济价值的细分领域——工厂自动化——确立了压倒性领先地位。

China has been making and installing factory robots at a pace unmatched by any other country. In 2024, more than two million robots were operating in Chinese factories, and another 300,000 were installed — more than in the rest of the world combined. Industrial robot installations declined in each of the next largest markets: Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany.

中国制造和安装工厂机器人的速度是其他任何国家都无法比拟的。2024年，中国工厂有超过200万台机器人在运行，另外还新装了30万台——比世界其他地区安装量总和还要多。在接下来的几个最大市场——日本、美国、韩国和德国，工业机器人安装量均出现下降。

Earlier this month, Chinese regulators announced a campaign to encourage local governments and state-owned firms to identify industrial use cases for humanoid robots.

本月早些时候，中国监管机构宣布了一项行动，鼓励地方政府和国有企业为人形机器人寻找工业应用场景。

China’s lead in the race to build robots that move and act like humans is closely tied to the rise of its electric vehicle industry. China has become the largest E.V. exporter through decades of government investment and a strategy focused on producing nearly every component domestically, from screws to lithium-ion batteries.

中国在制造举手投足如同人类的机器人方面领先与其电动汽车产业的崛起密切相关。通过数十年的政府投资，以及专注于从螺丝到锂离子电池几乎所有零部件都实现本土生产的战略，中国已成为最大的电动汽车出口国。

Now, many companies that manufacture parts for electric vehicles are supplying robot makers, too.

如今，许多生产电动汽车零部件的公司也在为机器人制造商供货。

“If a company can make auto components, then probably it can also do humanoids,” Mr. Lee said.

“如果一家公司能制造汽车零部件，那么它很可能也能做人形机器人，”李明勋说。

Tesla, the American electric car company, kicked off China’s E.V. boom with its giant factory in Shanghai. The supplier network that grew around Tesla also serves the company’s robotics business.

美国电动汽车公司特斯拉在上海的大型工厂开启了中国电动汽车的繁荣。围绕特斯拉发展起来的供应商网络也服务于该公司的机器人业务。

Although Tesla had pushed to build a separate supply chain for customers outside China, it still relies on Chinese manufacturers for at least 70 percent of its components, Mr. Lee said.

虽然特斯拉曾推动为中国以外的客户建立独立的供应链，但李明勋表示，它仍依赖中国制造商提供至少70%的零部件。

The factory floors of China’s electric vehicle makers, including BYD and Xiaomi, have also become among the first places to deploy humanoid robots for simple tasks like carrying items.

中国电动汽车制造商——包括比亚迪和小米——的工厂车间也成为最早的一些部署人形机器人执行搬运物品等简单任务的地方。

Some of those robots were built by UBTech. In Shenzhen, the center of China’s tech industry, the company is surrounded by suppliers, many of which once made parts for electric vehicles before moving into robotics. UBTech can source almost any part within hours, said Michael Tam, the company’s chief brand officer.

其中一些机器人由优必选制造。在中国科技产业中心深圳，该公司周围环绕着众多供应商，其中许多此前生产电动汽车零部件，后来转向机器人领域。优必选首席品牌官谭旻表示，公司可以在几小时内采购到几乎所有零部件。

Many parts are 3-D printed. “I can send a design map by 9 a.m. and get the printed components by noon,” Mr. Tam said. “If one supplier tells me they’re fully booked, I just call another.”

许多零部件采用3D打印。“我上午9点发设计图，中午就能拿到打印好的零部件，”谭旻说。“如果一家供应商告诉我他们已经排满，我就打给另一家。”

More than 90 percent of the components in UBTech’s robots come from Chinese companies, Mr. Tam said. The main items it still imports are computer chips to control the robots’ movements.

谭旻表示，优必选机器人90%以上的零部件来自中国企业。它仍需进口的主要是用于控制机器人运动的计算机芯片。

Nearby in Shenzhen, RoboSense, a maker of light detection and ranging, or lidar, sensors for assisted-driving systems, started a robotics business in 2024.

在深圳附近，激光雷达传感器制造商速腾聚创于2024年启动了机器人业务，该公司此前为辅助驾驶系统提供传感器。

Yang Xiansheng, the company’s vice president of robotics, said RoboSense would have looked to Japanese firms in the past for parts for its automated production lines.

速腾聚创机器人业务副总裁杨先声表示，过去他们会找日本企业拿自动化生产线所需的零部件。

“That’s no longer the case,” Mr. Yang said. “Chinese suppliers now offer far more choices.”

“现在情况不同了，”杨先声说。“中国供应商现在提供了多得多的选择。”

Chinese investors poured over $5 billion into humanoid robot start-ups in 2025, equaling the total amount over the previous five years. In the first five months of this year, investment in the industry exceeded last year’s total by nearly $1 billion.

2025年，中国投资者向人形机器人初创公司投入超过50亿美元，相当于此前五年的总和。今年前五个月，该行业的投资已比去年全年高出近10亿美元。

The surge underscores a growing belief that humanoid robots could become one of the most significant ways artificial intelligence takes physical form in the world. Dozens of Chinese start-ups are working to capitalize on that vision.

这一激增凸显出一种日益增长的信念：人形机器人可能成为人工智能在现实世界中最重要的实体存在形式之一。数十家中国初创公司正致力于抓住这一愿景。

In March, Unitree filed to go public in Shanghai. The company said last week that it had passed a regulatory review that could put it on track to start selling shares within weeks. The offering is expected to be one of China’s largest this year, and nearly 50 other robotics-related companies are waiting to list shares in Hong Kong.

今年3月，宇树向上海证券交易所提交了上市申请。该公司上周表示已通过监管审查，可能在数周内开始出售股份。此次发行预计将成为今年中国规模最大的IPO之一，另有近50家机器人相关公司正在等待在香港上市。

Last year, UBTech produced 1,000 humanoids. This year, it intends to make 10 times as many.

去年，优必选生产了1000台人形机器人。今年，它计划生产10倍于此的数量。

Founders and investors envision humanoids handling dangerous tasks like monitoring factories for chemical leaks and carrying heavy loads.

创始人和投资者设想人形机器人能承担危险任务，例如监测工厂化学品泄漏和搬运重物。

But the robots currently struggle to adapt to the changing world around them. The humanoids that have drawn international attention for dancing in sync at events like China’s televised Lunar New Year special were following preprogrammed scripts.

但这些机器人目前仍难以适应周围不断变化的世界。那些在中国春节晚会等活动中同步舞蹈、吸引国际关注的人形机器人，实际上是在按照预编程的脚本做动作。

Chinese companies have also struggled to build software capable of simulating the real world well enough to train robots how to think and act. For that, many rely on simulation software from Nvidia, the American chip maker. Last month, Jensen Huang, its chief executive, announced a partnership with Unitree on a line of robots that will use Nvidia chips and software for reasoning and decision making. The robots are expected to be available in October.

中国公司在构建足以模拟真实世界、从而训练机器人思考和行动的软件方面也面临困难。为此，许多公司依赖美国芯片制造商英伟达的仿真软件。上个月，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋宣布与宇树合作，推出一系列将使用英伟达芯片和软件进行推理与决策的机器人。这些机器人预计将于10月上市。

Most of the humanoids that Unitree has sold in the past two years have gone to universities, laboratories and other research settings, where developers are exploring how software interacts with robot hardware. Few are performing actual labor.

过去两年宇树销售的大多数人形机器人主要流向大学、实验室和其他研究机构，开发者在那里探索软件如何与机器人硬件交互。很少有机器人真正从事实际劳动。

Some UBTech robots carry boxes and perform basic manual labor in electric vehicle factories. But they remain far less productive than humans. The robots, said Mr. Tam, the UBTech executive, are currently only about 30 percent as efficient as human workers, though the company hopes to raise that figure to 50 percent this year.

部分优必选机器人在电动汽车工厂搬运箱子并从事基本体力劳动。但它们的生产效率仍远低于人类。优必选高管谭旻表示，目前这些机器人的效率仅相当于人类工人的30%左右，不过公司希望今年提高到50%。

At the Humanoids Summit in Tokyo, Xiaoli Chen, a director at Unitree, said creating robots capable of complex decision making in rapidly changing settings remained a challenge.

在东京的人形机器人峰会上，宇树公司总监陈小立（音）表示，制造能够在快速变化的环境中进行复杂决策的机器人仍然是一大挑战。

“Unitree has gotten a lot of attention and had a lot of events, but this is not productivity,” he said. “The long horizon of doing jobs in complicated environments is still not solved yet.”

“宇树获得了很多关注，也举办了很多活动，但这不是生产力，”他说。“在复杂环境中从事长期工作的难题仍未解决。”

If artificial intelligence disrupts the job market, which workers will be most vulnerable?

如果人工智能颠覆了就业市场，哪些劳动者最容易受到冲击？

The obvious answer, and the one that has dominated public debate over A.I. job loss in recent months, is that the workers most at risk are programmers, software engineers and other tech industry employees. They have borne the brunt of the mass layoffs by Meta, Block and other Silicon Valley companies. Their skills are the ones that A.I. systems have mastered first.

显而易见的答案是程序员、软件工程师和其他科技行业的员工，这也是近几个月来关于人工智能导致失业这一公众话题中的主导观点——这个群体承受了Meta、Block等硅谷公司大规模裁员的最大冲击。他们的技能正是人工智能系统最先掌握的技能。

But many economists are more concerned about a different, larger group of white-collar workers: customer service representatives, bookkeepers, payroll clerks and human resources specialists who fly under the radar but collectively account for tens of millions of jobs.

但许多经济学家更担心的是另一个更庞大的白领群体：客户服务代表、记账员、薪酬职员和人力资源专家。他们虽然不那么引人注目，但总共占据了数以千万计的工作岗位。

Some of these workers have college degrees. Many do not. They are spread across the country and throughout the economy, working in every industry, in big cities and small towns, at major corporations and mom-and-pop businesses. They are disproportionately — overwhelmingly, in some occupations — women.

其中部分员工拥有大学学历，许多人则没有。他们遍布全国各地和整个经济体系，在各行各业工作，身处大城市和小城镇，就职于大型企业和个体商户。这个群体当中女性的比例极高——在某些职业中甚至占据压倒性多数。

These jobs typically offer a middle-class salary or a pathway to achieving one — much as manufacturing jobs did for men before decades of globalization and automation wiped many of them away.

这些工作通常能提供中产阶级的薪资水平，或是提供了一条达到中产阶级收入的途径——就像几十年前全球化和自动化浪潮吞噬大量制造业岗位之前，制造业工作曾为男性提供的机会一样。

“I worry that A.I. will be to high-school-educated women what deindustrialization was to high-school-educated men,” said Molly Kinder, a former researcher at the Brookings Institution who is starting an organization focused on A.I.’s impact on workers and the economy.

“我担心人工智能对高中学历女性的影响，就像去工业化对高中学历男性的影响一样，”前布鲁金斯学会研究员莫莉·金德说。她目前正在创立一个专注于人工智能对劳动者和经济影响的组织。

For now, such an outcome is a fear, not a forecast. Despite high-profile layoffs in tech and finance, there is little firm evidence that A.I. has hurt the labor market as a whole.

就目前而言，这种结果只是一种担忧，而非预测。尽管科技和金融行业出现了备受瞩目的裁员，但几乎没有确凿证据表明人工智能从整体上对劳动力市场造成了损害。

Economists have become increasingly convinced that disruptions are likely, but they say it is too early to know where or how widespread they will be. They remain broadly skeptical of claims that the technology will lead to mass unemployment in the near future. Some A.I. industry leaders have walked back such predictions in recent weeks.

经济学家日益确信，颠覆性影响很可能发生，但他们表示，现在判断颠覆会发生在哪些领域以及范围有多广还为时过早。对于该技术将在不久的将来导致大规模失业的说法，他们普遍持怀疑态度。最近几周，一些人工智能行业的领军人物已经收回了此类预测。

But given the extraordinary pace at which companies are adopting A.I. — and at which the technology is improving — economists say policymakers need to consider the potential effects on the labor market. And they say they are concerned that the public debate has focused too much on software engineers and a relative handful of other high-status careers — lawyers, consultants, economists — rather than the workers who could be most vulnerable.

但考虑到企业采用人工智能的惊人速度——以及该技术进步的速度——经济学家表示，政策制定者需要考虑其对劳动力市场的潜在影响。他们还表示，令人担忧的是，公众讨论过多集中于软件工程师，以及相对少数的其他高地位职业（如律师、顾问、经济学家），而忽视了那些可能最易受冲击的劳动者。

Back-office jobs deserve more attention in the A.I. discussion, said Mark Muro, an economist at Brookings who has studied the impact of the technology.

布鲁金斯学会研究该技术影响的经济学家马克·穆罗表示，后台支持岗位在有关人工智能的讨论中理应得到更多关注。

“These are the kind of anchor jobs for families and households,” he said. “We really need to keep our eye on what is occurring across the entire labor market and in all of these occupations.”

“这些是维持家庭和住户生计的支柱性工作，”他说。“我们确实需要密切关注整个劳动力市场，以及所有这些职业领域正在发生的变化。”

Good Jobs at Risk

面临风险的好工作

Software engineers have dominated the public discussion of A.I. partly because they have been the first to adopt it in their work. Measures of A.I. exposure that are based on how people are using the technology, therefore, inevitably show programming jobs as among the most at risk.

软件工程师之所以在人工智能相关的公众讨论中占据主导地位，部分原因在于这个群体是最早在工作中采用该技术的人。因此，基于人们如何使用该技术来衡量人工智能影响的指标，不可避免地将编程类工作列为风险最高的职业之一。

But as the technology spreads through the economy, a broader set of roles could be affected. For companies, the promise of A.I. is that it will save them money, and back-office jobs are an obvious place to look to cut costs.

但随着该技术在整个经济体中的普及，更广泛的职业类别可能会受到影响。对企业而言，人工智能的前景在于能帮助节省成本，而后台岗位显然是削减成本的首选。

“If you think about the back office, that’s not the main function of the company, so they might think of it as a cost center,” said Jung Ho Choi, an accounting professor at Stanford.

斯坦福大学会计学教授崔正浩（音）表示：“如果提到后台部门，那并非公司的核心职能，因此企业可能会将其视为成本中心。”

Economists at Northwestern University recently recalculated measures of A.I. exposure based on the makeup of the total work force, not just the people using the technology. Administrative and frontline roles, such as customer service representatives, rose to the top of the list.

西北大学的经济学家最近重新计算了人工智能影响的评估指标，其依据是整个劳动力的构成，而不仅仅是技术使用者。根据该评估，行政和客服代表等一线岗位跃升至榜首。

“The most affected jobs are secretaries, are routine clerks,” said Michelle Yin, one of the working paper’s authors. “They’re not computer scientists or data scientists at all.”

“受影响最大的工作是秘书和从事常规文书工作的职员，”该工作论文的作者之一米歇尔·殷（音）说。“他们根本不是计算机科学家或数据科学家。”

Widely cited measures of A.I. exposure, she added, “give the wrong impression” about who will be most affected — and, in particular, tend to understate the impact on people without college degrees, older workers and people of color.

她还说，被广泛引用的人工智能影响程度指标，在何种群体受影响最大方面“给出了错误的印象”——特别是低估了对无大学学位群体、年长工人和有色人种的影响。

Ms. Kinder gave the example of medical records specialists, a job that pays about $50,000 a year and typically doesn’t require a college degree. More than 90 percent of the jobs are held by women, many of whom work from home, making it an ideal role for many mothers with young children.

金德举病历专员岗位为例，这份工作年薪约5万美元，通常不需要大学学位。超过90%的职位由女性担任，其中许多人居家办公，这使它成为许多育幼母亲的理想工作。

Other examples include billing and payroll clerks, and customer service representatives — jobs that pay at or near middle-class salaries without requiring a college degree. All of them are dominated by women. And all of them are, by various measures, vulnerable to substitution with A.I.

其他例子包括账单和薪酬职员，以及客户服务代表——这些工作都能提供达到或接近中产阶级的薪水，且不需要大学学位。所有这些岗位都以女性为主。而且根据各种指标，这些岗位都很容易被人工智能取代。。

“My worry is that the lesson from deindustrialization is that many of these women will be able to get another job, but it might be a much worse job,” Ms. Kinder said. “It might be more precarious.”

“我担心的是，根据去工业化的教训，这些女性中的许多人虽然能够找到另一份工作，但那可能会是一份条件差得多的的工作，”金德说。“那份工作可能会更不稳定。”

Vanishing Options

消失的选项

Such workers are also more vulnerable in another way: They will have a harder time recovering if they do lose their jobs.

这类劳动者在另一方面也更脆弱：一旦失业，他们更难重新站稳脚跟。

In a recent paper, researchers at GovAI, a nonprofit focused on A.I. policy, sorted occupations into categories based on not only how exposed they were to A.I. displacement but also their ability to adapt to a job loss, using factors like age, education and income.

在最近的一篇论文中，专注于人工智能政策的非营利组织GovAI的研究人员将职业进行了分类，其依据不仅是职业受人工智能替代的风险程度，还包括它们适应失业的能力（结合年龄、教育和收入等因素考量）。

The good news: Many of the workers most exposed to A.I. right now are relatively well positioned to adjust. They tend to be younger, giving them more time to shift directions in their career. They generally have more education and live in cities with more job opportunities. And they are more likely to have higher incomes, giving them the resources to sustain them through a job search.

好消息是：目前受人工智能影响最严重的许多劳动者其实具备相对良好的适应条件。他们通常较为年轻，有更多时间调整职业方向。他们通常受教育程度更高，并且居住在有更多就业机会的城市。而且他们更有可能拥有较高的收入，这为他们度过求职期提供了经济保障。

The workers to be most concerned about, the authors argue, are the ones who are both at high risk of displacement and have little capacity to adapt: customer service agents, secretaries and other back-office workers.

论文作者认为，最令人担忧的劳动者是那些既面临高替代风险、又缺乏适应能力的群体：客服人员、秘书和其他后台工作人员。

“If A.I. does lead to displacement, then these are the folks that you might want to consider paying special attention to,” said Sam Manning, one of the authors. Policymakers, he said, should “think about what sort of additional support they might need to manage a job transition, compared to the managing partner at a consulting firm or a lawyer or software engineer who’s similarly exposed, but if they lose their job, they have lots of things that might make them better positioned to find a new one.”

“如果人工智能确实导致了岗位替代，那么这些人就是可能需要考虑给予特别关注的群体，”该论文作者之一萨姆·曼宁说。他表示，政策制定者应该“思考这些人可能需要什么样的额外支持来应对职业过渡，要知道，咨询公司的管理合伙人、律师或软件工程师尽管面临类似的风险，但如果他们失去工作，往往拥有诸多优势，使他们更容易找到新工作”。

Fewer Rungs on the Ladder

晋升阶梯减少

Back-office workers are hardly strangers to technological disruptions. Word processors displaced typists; spreadsheet programs and accounting software displaced bookkeepers; online booking sites displaced travel agents.

后台工作人员对技术颠覆并不陌生。文字处理软件取代了打字员；电子表格程序和会计软件取代了记账员；在线预订网站取代了旅行社代理。

Those changes came gradually, however, giving workers a chance to adapt. Women, in particular, responded to the disappearance of many secretarial jobs in the 1980s and 1990s by attending college in record numbers, opening pathways to better-paying careers. U.S. businesses employ far fewer secretaries than they did 50 years ago, but the jobs that remain are more complex and better paid than they used to be.

然而，这些变化是渐进的，给了劳动者适应的机会。特别是女性，面对20世纪80年代和90年代大量秘书岗位的消失，她们以前所未有的规模走进大学校园，由此踏上了通往高薪职业的道路。如今美国企业雇用的秘书数量比50年前少得多，但现存的职位比过去更复杂，薪水也更高。

Women who didn’t attend college, however, have been pushed into retail, hospitality and health care — sectors where jobs tend to be physically demanding and poorly paid, with few opportunities for advancement.

但未接受大学教育的女性被推向零售、酒店和医疗保健行业——这些行业的工作通常对体力要求很高、薪酬微薄，且几乎没有晋升机会。

“College-educated women are the ones who came out on top from this,” said Eliza Forsythe, an economist at the University of Illinois who has studied earlier waves of white-collar automation. “They’re the ones who experienced the employment gains without the wage declines. Everyone else are the ones who didn’t do as well from this technology.”

伊利诺伊大学研究过早期白领自动化浪潮的经济学家伊丽莎·福赛斯说：“受过大学教育的女性是从中获益最多的群体。她们既享受了就业增长的红利，又没有遭遇工资下降。而其他群体都没能从这项技术中获得同样的收益。”

The risk with A.I. is that it will move too quickly for workers to adapt — and that, this time, a college degree won’t protect against displacement. Indeed, many of the jobs that women transitioned to during the computer revolution of the 1980s and 1990s, like accounting and human resources, are now vulnerable to A.I. displacement.

人工智能的风险在于，它的发展速度可能快到让劳动者来不及适应——而且，这一次，大学文凭也无法成为免遭替代的护身符。事实上，在20世纪80年代和90年代的计算机革命期间，女性转行的许多工作（如会计和人力资源），现在都很容易受到人工智能的冲击。

Ms. Forsythe said A.I. was also likely to create new jobs, as did earlier technological revolutions. And it is too soon to know to what degree A.I. will displace workers rather than make them more productive, potentially allowing them to earn more.

福赛斯表示，与早期的技术革命一样，人工智能也可能会创造新的工作岗位。目前还无法确定人工智能究竟会在多大程度上取代劳动者，还是会提高生产力，从而可能让劳动者获得更高的收入。

“I would be cautious about just focusing on what are we losing as opposed to what are we going to gain on the other side,” Ms. Forsythe said.

“我们不能只盯着自己会失去什么，也要看看在另一端将得到什么，这一点要特别慎重，”福赛斯说。

Even if A.I. doesn’t destroy jobs, there could be lasting consequences for workers caught in the transition. Mr. Muro, the Brookings economist, has studied how A.I. threatens jobs that have traditionally served as “gateways” between low-paying, entry-level work and more sustainable careers.

即使人工智能没有摧毁工作岗位，陷入这种过渡期的工人也可能面临持久的后果。布鲁金斯学会的经济学家穆罗研究了人工智能如何威胁到那些传统上作为低薪入门级工作与更稳定职业之间“跳板”的岗位。

Someone who starts as a receptionist, for example, might move into a customer service job that pays only modestly better but offers a chance to move into a much better job in human resources or even management. If A.I. eliminates that middle step, it could be harder for workers to move up the career ladder, said Justin Heck, a coauthor on a recent article with Mr. Muro.

例如，一个从前台接待做起的人，可能会转到客户服务岗位，尽管薪水只高了一点点，但它提供了转入人力资源甚至管理层等更好职位的机会。近期与穆罗先生合著一篇文章的贾斯汀·赫克表示，如果人工智能消灭了这一中间环节，劳动者将更难在职业阶梯上晋升。

“What happens if we’re no longer building those skills on the job? Where is there available to move up?” Mr. Heck asked. “What are the ramifications three years from now, when workers remain stranded in low-wage work, and employers are struggling to fill high-wage roles because we’ve carved out the middle?”

“如果我们不再通过工作培养这些技能，会发生什么？还有哪里能提供晋升的机会呢？”赫克问道。“三年后会有什么样的后果？届时，工人被困在低薪工作中，而雇主因为中间层被削弱从而难以填补高薪职位。”

Iñaki Echeverría-Huarte, an applied physicist at the University of Navarra in Spain, was studying whether people maintain a certain distance between one another while walking when he noticed something strange. Across some 40 experiments, most of his participants spontaneously veered to the left.

在研究人们行走时是否会彼此保持一定距离时，西班牙纳瓦拉大学的应用物理学家伊尼亚基·埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特注意到了一些奇怪的现象。在大约40个实验中，大多数参与者会不自觉地向左偏转。

Although this observation had nothing to do with his original research, it piqued his curiosity. “This was the first signal that something weird was happening,” Dr. Echeverría-Huarte said.

尽管这一观察结果与他最初的研究无关，却激起了他的好奇心。“这是第一个信号，表明有些奇怪的事情正在发生，”埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士说。

He and his colleagues assumed there must be a straightforward explanation. Perhaps the layout of the room, for example, was subtly directing people to list to the left. They began what they thought would be a simple investigation to find the answer.

他和同事们起初认为，这背后必定有一个简单明了的解释。例如，许是房间布局在不知不觉中引导人们向左倾斜。他们开始着手调查，并认为这会是一项很容易找到答案的研究。

Five years later, Dr. Echeverría-Huarte and his colleagues have exhausted most of their hypotheses and are no closer to solving the mystery. But what they have found, as reported on Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications, is a striking, innate tendency for people across demographics, cultures and conditions to veer in a counterclockwise direction.

五年过去了，埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士和同事们已穷尽了大多数假设，却仍未解开这个谜团。不过，正如他们周三在《自然·通讯》期刊上发表的论文所报告的那样，他们发现了一个引人注目的现象：不同人口群体、不同文化背景、不同实验条件下的人都表现出逆时针运动的天然倾向。

“In principle, there is no reason for the fact that people prefer rotating counterclockwise,” said Iker Zuriguel, an applied physicist at the University of Navarra and a co-author of the study. Yet it’s clear they do.

“原则上，没有理由认为人们会偏好逆时针旋转，”该研究的共同作者、纳瓦拉大学应用物理学家伊克尔·苏里格尔说。然而事实摆在眼前，人们确实如此。

Dr. Zuriguel and Dr. Echeverría-Huarte first searched in the scientific literature for an explanation as to why this might be so. They found a study showing that people who are lost usually wander in circles — but it did not specify the direction.

苏里格尔博士和埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士首先在科学文献中寻找对此现象可能存在的解释。他们发现了一项研究，显示迷路的人通常会绕圈走——但并未指明方向。

They found another paper showing that when people encounter a wall, those who are right-handed tend to turn left, while those who are left-handed do the opposite. Most of the participants in the original study were right-handed, so “the moment we saw that, we said, ‘OK, we have an answer,’” Dr. Zuriguel said.

他们还找到另一篇论文，表明当人们遇到墙壁时，惯用右手的人倾向于向左转，惯用左手的人则相反。由于原始研究的大多数参与者是右撇子，所以“当我们看到那一点时，我们说，‘好了，有答案了，’”苏里格尔博士说。

To check, they ran their own trial. They separated participants according to whether they turned left or right when directed to approach a wall. They then asked the participants to walk around a small arena. To the researchers’ surprise, regardless of the wall-turning preferences or handedness, most chose left.

为了验证这一点，他们进行了自己的实验。他们根据参与者在接近墙壁时选择向左转还是向右转进行分组，然后要求他们在一个小型场地内行走。令研究人员惊讶的是，无论参与者的转向偏好或惯用手如何，大多数人都选择了向左移动。

This baffling finding prompted them to undertake five additional experiments, each targeting a different hypothesis and involving a total of 573 participants. Yet again and again, they found the same result. In an open schoolyard, for example, the researchers instructed participants to roam at will while a drone recorded their movements. Within seconds, 80 percent of people were moving in a counterclockwise direction. “It’s not a gradual drift but rather a bias that emerges almost immediately,” Dr. Echeverría-Huarte said.

这个令人困惑的发现促使他们进行了另外五项实验，每项实验针对一个不同的假设，总共涉及573名参与者。然而，他们一次又一次地得到了相同的结果。例如，在一个开放的校园操场上，研究人员让参与者随意走动，同时用无人机记录他们的行动轨迹。几秒钟内，80%的人开始沿逆时针方向移动。“这不是逐渐的偏移，而是一种几乎立刻显现出来的倾向，”埃切韦里亚-瓦尔特博士说。

Dr. Echeverría-Huarte and his colleagues wondered if the behavior might be emerging collectively, similar to how pedestrians split into two opposite-moving lanes on crowded sidewalks. But when they tested participants alone, 75 percent still moved counterclockwise, suggesting that the tendency is individual.

埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士和同事们怀疑，这种行为是否是一种集体效应，就像拥挤人行道上的行人会自动分成两个相反方向流动的队列一样。但当他们让参与者单独进行测试时，仍有75%的人朝逆时针方向移动，表明这一倾向属于个体行为。

Were there cultural factors behind that preference? Pedestrians, for example, typically walk on the same side as cars drive on in their country, and pedestrians also typically move in that direction if they encounter an obstacle. So the team ran experiments in Japan, where pedestrian lanes form on the left. Despite being convinced they would see the opposite pattern to the one in Spain, the researchers yet again observed participants moving counterclockwise, ruling cultural norms off the list.

这种偏好背后会不会存在文化因素呢？例如，行人通常会按照本国车辆行驶方向相同的一侧行走，在遇到障碍物时也往往会朝那个方向移动。因此，研究团队在日本进行了实验，因为日本的人行通道通常靠左通行。尽管研究人员原本确信会看到与西班牙完全相反的模式，但他们再次观察到参与者朝逆时针方向移动，从而将文化习惯排除在可能原因之外。

Finally, they wondered if some unacknowledged social convention drilled into adults, but not yet present in children, might be at play. They reached out to researchers who had conducted a prior study in a Japanese kindergarten in which 52 children moved at random while music played. The Japanese researchers shared their videos of the children for analysis — revealing that most of them also moved counterclockwise.

最后，他们想知道，是否某种在成年人身上根深蒂固、但尚未在儿童身上出现的未被察觉的社会惯例在起作用。他们联系了此前在一所日本幼儿园进行过一项研究的研究人员，在那项研究中，52名儿童伴随着音乐随机走动。日本研究人员分享了他们拍摄的视频以供分析——结果显示，大多数儿童也是逆时针移动。

Enrico Ronchi, who models emergency evacuations at Lund University in Sweden and was not involved in the research, said the findings “open up many new, interesting avenues in the field of crowd dynamics.”

瑞典隆德大学研究紧急疏散模型的学者恩里科·龙基表示（他未参与这项研究），这些发现“为群体动力学领域开辟了许多全新而有趣的研究方向”。

He would be interested to see, for example, whether the counterclockwise bias holds up among people with disabilities, or in emergency evacuations.

他表示，很想知道逆时针偏向在残障人士或紧急疏散情境下是否依然成立。

Karol Bacik, an applied mathematician at M.I.T. who was also not involved in the research, said the new finding challenges our understanding of human locomotion. “The counterclockwise bias may have far-reaching consequences for everyday pedestrian traffic, but we simply have not looked for them yet,” he said.

同样未参与该研究的麻省理工学院应用数学家卡罗尔·巴齐克表示，这一新发现挑战了我们对人类运动方式的理解。“逆时针偏向可能对日常行人交通产生深远影响，只是我们此前从未留意过，”他说。

Dr. Zuriguel and Dr. Echeverría-Huarte next plan to investigate new hypotheses about the counterclockwise bias using biomechanics, virtual reality, neuroscience or even animal behavior. “Fish are the canonical animal that move in circles,” Dr. Zuriguel said. “But whether they prefer rotating in one direction or the other, I don’t know.”

接下来，苏里格尔博士和埃切维里亚-瓦尔特博士计划从生物力学、虚拟现实、神经科学，甚至动物行为学等角度，继续探索关于这种逆时针偏好的新假说。“鱼类是典型的绕圈运动动物。”苏里格尔博士说，“但它们是否偏好某一方向，我还真不知道。”

Last summer, as pressure mounted on the Trump administration to release material it held on Jeffrey Epstein, the president’s top advisers gathered in a series of meetings, many of them in the White House Situation Room — typically used during national-security crises — as they struggled to contain a scandal engulfing Donald Trump himself. The discussions included the vice president, JD Vance; the White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles; the White House counsel, David Warrington; the deputy attorney general, Todd Blanche; and the F.B.I. director, Kash Patel, among others.

去年夏天，随着要求特朗普政府公布其所掌握的杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关材料的压力不断增大，总统的高级顾问们召开了一系列会议，其中许多是在白宫战情室举行——这个房间通常用于应对国家安全危机——试图遏制一场波及唐纳德·特朗普本人的丑闻。与会者包括副总统JD·万斯、白宫办公厅主任苏茜·怀尔斯、白宫法律顾问戴维·沃林顿、司法部副部长托德·布兰奇以及联邦调查局局长卡什·帕特尔等人。

The reporting, which documents many previously undisclosed conversations and conflicts, is drawn from our forthcoming book “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” We discovered how the Epstein files consumed and often paralyzed the highest levels of the Trump administration, far more than the public knew.

这篇摘自我们即将出版的新书《政权更迭：唐纳德·特朗普的帝王式总统任期内幕》(Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump)的报道记录了诸多此前未披露的谈话与冲突。我们发现，爱泼斯坦档案以远超外界所知的程度消耗着特朗普政府的最高决策层，时常令其陷入瘫痪。

Here are six takeaways from the article in The Times Magazine.

以下是这篇刊载于《纽约时报杂志》的文章的六大要点。

The government’s national-security bunker became an Epstein war room.

政府的国家安全堡垒变成了爱泼斯坦危机作战室。

The secure Situation Room complex, where President Obama and his team monitored the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, became the setting for a string of meetings in which the Trump administration’s most senior officials gathered — without the president — to manage the fallout from public fury over their failure to release the Epstein files. To their surprise, much of that backlash was coming from what they had considered the reliably loyal MAGA base.

当年奥巴马总统及其团队曾在安防森严的战情室内监督击毙奥萨马·本·拉登的突袭行动，如今这里却成了特朗普政府最高级官员（总统本人除外）一连串会议的举办地，旨在管控因未能公布爱泼斯坦档案而引发的公众愤怒。令他们惊讶的是，许多反对声竟来自他们原本认为绝对忠诚的MAGA基本盘。

As the calls for disclosure grew louder, Trump’s inner circle spent more and more time in the Situation Room, which became inseparable from the crisis — a guarded space used not to weigh a foreign threat but to steer the president around a political problem concerning a notorious dead pedophile.

随着要求公开文件的呼声日益高涨，特朗普的核心圈子在战情室里待的时间越来越长，这里已与这场危机密不可分——这个高度戒备的空间不再用于权衡外来威胁，而是用来出谋划策，以便让总统躲开一桩由恶名昭彰的已故恋童者引发的政治麻烦。

The officials knew that prominent people, including Trump, were named in the records of F.B.I. agents’ interview notes with witnesses, some of whom were Epstein’s victims. While many of the claims made in the notes were not corroborated evidence, releasing them was, for most of the president’s advisers, a nonstarter.

官员们心知肚明，FBI探员询问证人的笔录记录中提到了包括特朗普在内的多位知名人士，其中一些证人正是爱泼斯坦的受害者。尽管笔录中的许多说法并未得到确凿证据的支持，但对于总统的大多数顾问而言，公布这些内容是绝对不可接受的。

The president wanted the whole thing buried.

总统想把整件事压住。

Trump made clear to his aides that he had no interest in releasing anything related to Epstein. He snapped at anyone who raised the issue, and his staff mostly learned to avoid the subject in front of him. They were left to worry and plan among themselves. The president’s refusal to acknowledge that a crisis existed, let alone that it was growing, complicated every path his team wanted to take.

特朗普向助手明确表示，他对公布任何与爱泼斯坦有关的材料毫无兴趣。谁要是提起这事，他就会厉声呵斥；幕僚们大多学会了在他面前避而不谈这个话题。他们只能私下担忧和谋划。总统拒不承认危机存在，更不用说危机正在加剧，这导致他的团队想采取任何应对措施都十分困难。

As The Wall Street Journal prepared a damaging article about his relationship with Epstein, the president tried to kill it. He called News Corp.’s chief executive; its owner, Rupert Murdoch; and the paper’s editor in chief, Emma Tucker. The president, practically shouting as he threatened to sue, told Tucker, who is British, that she must “hate America.” When his efforts to stop the article failed and his advisers settled on a limited gesture of transparency, the president went along grudgingly.

在《华尔街日报》准备刊登一篇关于他与爱泼斯坦关系的破坏性报道时，总统试图压制报道。他致电新闻集团首席执行官、报社所有人鲁珀特·默多克以及主编艾玛·塔克。总统几乎是吼着威胁要起诉，并对那位英国籍主编说，她肯定是“憎恨美国”。阻止报道的努力失败后，顾问们决定采取一种有限的公开透明姿态，总统才勉强同意。

Vice President JD Vance wanted to release all the files — even the unsubstantiated material about Trump.

副总统JD·万斯主张公布所有文件——哪怕是那些未经证实的涉特朗普材料。

Within the White House itself, no one was more vocal about releasing the Epstein material than the vice president. “This is a huge problem,” Vance told colleagues in the Situation Room. Others thought he appeared panicked about how the issue was splintering the MAGA coalition. Wiles would later describe the vice president to associates as an Epstein conspiracy theorist.

在白宫内部，没有人比副总统更直言不讳地要求公布爱泼斯坦的材料。“这是个巨大的麻烦，”万斯在战情室里对同僚说。其他人则认为他看起来是慌了，担心这个问题会导致MAGA联盟分裂。怀尔斯后来向同事形容副总统是个爱泼斯坦阴谋论者。

Vance pressed repeatedly for the administration to release everything — even unsubstantiated material about Trump — arguing that Congress would force the issue eventually and that getting ahead of it would earn the White House credit for transparency.

万斯反复敦促政府公布一切——哪怕是关于特朗普的未经证实的材料——他认为国会最终会逼他们就范，先行一步能为白宫赢得公开透明的声誉。

He floated the idea of enlisting Tucker Carlson to interview Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime girlfriend and co-conspirator, in prison, and fretted to colleagues about how the crisis was alienating the young, low-propensity voters who had backed the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024. But the vice president’s suggestions were far from popular with the core Trump team, and most of them went unheeded.

他甚至提议借助塔克·卡尔森去监狱采访爱泼斯坦的长期女友、共谋者吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦，并向同事抱怨这场危机正在疏远一些在2024年支持了特朗普-万斯组合的年轻选民，这些选民平常缺乏投票意愿。但副总统的建议在特朗普核心团队中并不受欢迎，大多数被置之不理。

Expletive-laden blowups fractured the top of the Justice Department.

充斥脏话的爆发导致司法部高层决裂。

The lingering distrust between Pam Bondi, then the attorney general, and the F.B.I.’s top two officials — Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, then his deputy — exploded over the Epstein controversy.

时任司法部长帕姆·邦迪与FBI的两位最高官员——卡什·帕特尔和他的副手丹·邦吉诺——之间积攒已久的不信任在爱泼斯坦争议中彻底爆发。

The day the Justice Department released a memo intended to put the Epstein matter to rest, Bongino marched into a daily meeting and erupted at Bondi. He and Patel told White House officials that Bondi should resign; at a later meeting, the two said they suspected that she had leaked damaging stories about them. When Wiles accused Bongino of a leak of his own, he stormed out of the Situation Room complex. Bongino privately warned associates that the Epstein crisis would become “President Trump’s Iran-contra.”

司法部发布备忘录试图了结爱泼斯坦事件当天，邦吉诺冲进每日例会，对邦迪大发雷霆。他和帕特尔告诉白宫官员，邦迪应该辞职；在后来的会议上，这两人说他们怀疑邦迪泄露了对他们不利的负面消息。当怀尔斯指责邦吉诺自己泄密时，他愤然冲出了战情室。邦吉诺私下警告同僚，爱泼斯坦危机会变成“特朗普总统的‘伊朗门’”。

Advisers found themselves having a surreal debate over an unverified allegation about Mr. Trump.

顾问们发现自己正在白宫就一项关于特朗普的未经证实的指控进行不可思议的辩论。

At an August meeting in the Situation Room, one of the president’s senior aides raised an uncorroborated and secondhand claim that had been made nearly a decade earlier, about Trump aggressively flicking and sucking a young woman’s nipples until they “looked incredibly painful.”

在8月的一次战情室会议上，总统的一位高级助手提出了一项近十年前提出的未经证实的间接指控，称特朗普曾粗暴地弹拨并吮吸一位年轻女性的乳头，以至于“看上去非常疼”。

The claim about Trump had surfaced in 2024 in unsealed court filings from a civil suit unrelated to him, and when the matter was raised by another official, Vance argued for including this and many other accusations on the Justice Department’s website, saying that it would show maximum transparency and that Trump wouldn’t mind, given that he had been accused of worse. Wiles shut that down, saying the president would not, in fact, be fine with releasing it. One official later said it was “surreal” to be debating the nipple accusation in the White House Situation Room.

这一关于特朗普的说法于2024年在一份与他无关的民事诉讼解封法庭文件中浮出水面。当另一位官员提出此事时，万斯主张在司法部网站上公布这一指控及许多其他指控，称这将展示最大的透明度，而且鉴于特朗普曾被指控更恶劣的事，他不会介意。怀尔斯否决了这一提议，称总统实际上绝不会同意公布这些内容。一位官员后来说，在白宫战情室里辩论关于乳头的指控，感觉“太不可思议了”。

More than a year later, the files were still damaging the president.

一年多过去了，这些文件仍在拖累总统。

In late March 2026 — a full year into the White House efforts to manage the fiasco — a confidential memo from Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, summarized responses from focus groups conducted with voters earlier that month, in which the Epstein files ranked as the sixth most important political issue, ahead of crime, the military and being pro-working class. The memo flagged the Epstein issue as “a real negative with some of these voters.”

2026年3月下旬——距离白宫努力应对这场闹剧已整整一年，特朗普的民调专家托尼·法布里齐奥的一份机密备忘录总结了当月早些时候对选民进行的焦点小组访谈反馈，其中爱泼斯坦文件被列为第六大重要政治议题，排在犯罪、军事和有利劳工阶层的政策之前。备忘录将爱泼斯坦问题标记为“在这部分选民中真实存在的负面因素”。

Northern Ireland was on edge after Belfast erupted in violence following a brutal stabbing attack in the city this week.

在一起残忍的持刀袭击事件导致贝尔法斯特爆发暴力骚乱后，北爱尔兰陷入紧张局势。

The case has ignited simmering anti-immigrant sentiment. Far-right figures have called for crowds to take to the streets and said that the United Kingdom should oust millions of foreign-born people.

此案点燃了长期酝酿的反移民情绪。极右翼人士呼吁民众走上街头，并声称英国应该驱逐数百万外国出生的人。

Political leaders are calling for restraint. The suspected attacker, a 30-year-old Sudanese refugee, appeared in court on Wednesday facing charges of attempted murder.

政治领导人正在呼吁保持克制。袭击嫌疑人是一名30岁的苏丹难民，他于周三出庭，面临谋杀未遂指控。

Here’s what’s happening in Belfast.

以下是贝尔法斯特当前的情况。

What happened in the attack?

袭击事件经过如何？

The attacker stabbed another man around 10:30 p.m. on Monday at an apartment complex in northern Belfast, the police said. The police said officers arrived within minutes.

警方表示，周一晚10:30左右，袭击者在贝尔法斯特北部的一个公寓楼群内刺伤另一名男子。警方称，警员几分钟内就抵达现场。

Graphic footage of the attack spread quickly on social media and prompted outrage from some commenters.

袭击的视频画面迅速在社交媒体上传播，引发部分网友的愤怒。

The clip shows a man mounted on the chest of another man, whose face and neck are covered in blood. The attacker moves his hands near the neck of the victim. A bystander can then be seen battering the attacker with a hurley, a long wooden stick used in the Irish sport of hurling.

视频显示，一名男子骑在另一名男子胸口上，后者脸部和颈部满是鲜血。袭击者将手移近受害者颈部。随后可见一名旁观者用球杆（爱尔兰曲棍球运动中使用的长木棍）殴打袭击者。

What happened in the riots?

骚乱情况如何？

There were sporadic bursts of violence around Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland on Tuesday night. Rioters torched cars, and garbage cans engulfed in flames were used to create roadblocks. Protesters set a city bus on fire in eastern Belfast.

周二晚间，贝尔法斯特及北爱尔兰其他地区发生零星暴力事件。骚乱者焚烧汽车，并用燃烧的垃圾桶设置路障。抗议者在贝尔法斯特东部点燃了一辆公交车。

Emergency responders escorted immigrant families from their homes, some of which had been set on fire.

急救人员护送移民家庭离开住所，其中一些房屋已被纵火焚烧。

The authorities had prepared for violence with an increased police presence. Some evening transit services were canceled in advance. Some businesses and government offices closed early.

当局提前增加警力以应对暴力事件，部分晚间公共交通服务被提前取消，一些企业和政府办公室提早关闭。

What is known about the suspect?

关于嫌疑人的已知信息是？

The suspect, whom the authorities identified as Hadi Alodid, was arrested and charged with attempted murder. He is a refugee from Sudan who is legally residing in the United Kingdom. The Home Office, the British department overseeing immigration and policing, said he had permission to live in the country until 2028. He entered the United Kingdom in 2023 and was granted refugee status that year.

嫌疑人被当局确认为哈迪·阿洛迪德，他已被逮捕并被控谋杀未遂。他是一名来自苏丹的难民，目前合法居住在英国。负责移民和治安的英国内政部表示，他获准在英国居留至2028年。他于2023年进入英国，当年获得难民身份。

A police official said on Tuesday that officers were working to determine a motive. They said that they were not looking for other suspects and that there was no indication to suggest the attack was terrorism.

一名警官周二表示，警员正在努力确定作案动机。他们称目前没有寻找其他嫌疑人，也没有迹象表明这是一起恐怖袭击。

What is known about the victim?

关于受害人的已知信息？

He is a man in his 40s, identified by the authorities as Steven Ogilvy. The police said he was in the hospital with serious injuries to his face, neck and back. He lost an eye as a result of the attack, according to the prosecutors who charged Mr. Alodid on Wednesday.

受害人是一名40多岁的男子，当局确认其名为史蒂文·奥吉尔维。警方表示，他因面部、颈部和背部严重受伤正在医院接受治疗。据检察官周三指控阿洛迪德时透露，受害人因袭击失去了一只眼睛。

How has the far right responded?

极右翼如何回应？

Far-right activists posted video of the stabbing attack, filmed by bystanders, and spread misinformation and speculation about the attacker online. They called for mass deportations and published information about where to gather to protest.

极右翼活动人士发布旁观者拍摄的持刀袭击视频，并在网上散布关于袭击者的不实信息和猜测。他们呼吁大规模驱逐移民，并公布了有关抗议集会地点的信息。

Tommy Robinson, a far-right English agitator who has a number of criminal convictions, urged people to take to the streets after what he called on social media an “invader attack on our people.”

拥有多项刑事定罪记录的英国极右翼煽动者汤米·罗宾逊在社交媒体上称这是一起“入侵者对我们人民的袭击”，并敦促民众走上街头。

Elon Musk, the tech mogul, shared lists of locations around the United Kingdom for people to gather and shared posts by far-right figures in the country.

科技大亨埃隆·马斯克转发了英国各地民众聚集的地点清单，并分享了该国极右翼人士的帖子。

What’s the backdrop for the violence?

此次暴力的背景是什么？

In recent years, other high-profile acts of violence have inflamed anti-immigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom.

近年来，英国其他几起引起广泛关注的暴力事件加剧了反移民情绪。

Some officials and experts are worried about a glorification of extreme violence that has recently escalated online. Political leaders have tried to tamp down on rising xenophobic anger.

一些官员和专家对最近在网上升级的极端暴力美化现象感到担忧。政治领导人试图压制不断上升的仇外愤怒。

There are a few recent cases to note.

有几起近期案例值得注意。

• Henry Nowak, an 18-year-old student, was stabbed in December in the southern English city of Southampton. This week, footage was released that showed him being handcuffed by the police as he lay dying, which fueled outrage and an increasingly politicized conversation online. The day after the footage was released, a night of protest devolved into violence in Southampton. The right-wing lawmaker Nigel Farage claimed that the police’s initial response — believing the account given by the attacker, a British-born Sikh man, instead of the victim’s — was evidence of “anti-white prejudice.”

• 18岁学生亨利·诺瓦克于12月在英格兰南部城市南安普顿被刺死。本周公布的视频显示奄奄一息的他被警察戴上手铐，引发了愤怒和日益政治化的网络讨论。视频公布次日，南安普顿的抗议活动演变为暴力事件。右翼议员奈杰尔·法拉奇声称，警方最初更相信袭击者——一名英国出生的锡克教徒——的说法而非受害者，这正是“反白人偏见”的证据。

• An earlier wave of anti-immigrant anger engulfed Northern Ireland in July 2025, after an alleged sexual assault in the town of Ballymena. Two 14-year-old boys were charged with attempted oral rape of a girl; they both denied the charges, the BBC reported, and spoke through a Romanian interpreter. Far-right agitators whipped up outrage that led to days of unrest. Houses and shops were set on fire.

• 2025年7月，北爱尔兰城镇巴利米纳发生一起涉嫌性侵事件后，反移民愤怒浪潮席卷北爱尔兰。两名14岁男孩被控对一名女孩实施口交强奸未遂；据BBC报道，两人均否认指控，并通过罗马尼亚语翻译发言。极右翼煽动者煽动愤怒，导致多日骚乱。房屋和商店遭到纵火。

• In the summer of 2024, a teenager killed three children in a dance class in Southport, England, and wounded 10 other people. After disinformation about the attacker’s identity swirled, a series of anti-immigrant riots broke out in more than a dozen towns and cities in England and Northern Ireland. False claims that the attacker was an undocumented immigrant or a newly arrived asylum seeker were amplified by far-right agitators. The attacker, a deeply disturbed person who was 17 at the time of the rampage, is a British citizen who was born in Wales to parents from Rwanda.

• 2024年夏天，一名青少年在英格兰南港的一个舞蹈班上杀死三名儿童，并造成10人受伤。在关于袭击者身份的虚假信息传播后，英格兰和北爱尔兰十多个城镇爆发了反移民骚乱。极右翼煽动者放大了袭击者是无证移民或新抵达寻求庇护者的虚假说法。精神严重失常的袭击者当时17岁，是威尔士出生的英国公民，父母来自卢旺达。