When Gen. Zhang Youxia met with U.S. officials in Beijing in 2024, he exuded the confidence of a man who was seen as the most trusted deputy in the military of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

2024年，张又侠上将在北京与美国官员会面时，流露出一种自信——那是一种被视为中国最高领导人习近平最信任的军中副手所特有的自信。

General Zhang did not appear worried that he had to look over his shoulder to make sure he was pleasing the leader, said Jake Sullivan, who was the U.S. national security adviser attending the meeting, which lasted at least an hour. “He spoke in an unvarnished way that was typical of a military guy, but also reflective of someone who didn’t feel like he had to be cautious.”

时任美国国家安全顾问的杰克·沙利文出席了那场至少持续了一小时的会谈，他说，张又侠当时看起来并不担心是否需要时刻察言观色、揣摩领导心意。“他说话直来直去，这很符合军人的作风，也反映出他似乎觉得自己不需要谨小慎微。”

That image of General Zhang’s invulnerability, and closeness to Mr. Xi, shattered over the weekend, when China’s defense ministry announced that he was under investigation for unspecified breaches of laws and political discipline.

然而，张又侠那看似不可动摇的地位以及他与习近平关系密切的印象在周末骤然破碎。中国国防部宣布，他因涉嫌违反法律和政治纪律而接受调查，但并未披露具体细节。

General Zhang’s downfall is of a different magnitude from the dozens of other generals who have been toppled in Mr. Xi’s unrelenting campaign against perceived corruption and disloyalty over the past three years. His fate has astonished even longtime experts who thought that they had taken full measure of Mr. Xi, China’s most powerful and imperious leader in generations.

张又侠落马的震撼程度不同于过去三年来习近平在持续反腐和清除异己行动中扳倒的数十名将领。他的命运甚至让一些长期研究中国的专家感到震惊，这些专家原以为自己已经充分了解习近平——这位几代人以来中国最有权势、也最专横的领导人。

“It’s fair to say this is a seismic event,” Mr. Sullivan said. For Mr. Xi to “take out somebody who he had such a long history with is striking and raises a lot of questions,” he said.

“可以说这是一次地震级事件，”沙利文说。习近平“对一个与自己有如此长期关系的人下手，这令人震惊，也引发了许多疑问”。

At 75, General Zhang was old enough that Mr. Xi could in theory have ushered him into retirement. Instead, Mr. Xi made a public pariah of him. An editorial about General Zhang in the Liberation Army Daily on Sunday hinted that he was being accused of corruption, and, perhaps more important, of disloyalty to Mr. Xi.

按理说，习近平完全可以让75岁的张又侠体面退休，但习近平并未如此，而是将他公开打成了反面人物。周日，《解放军报》刊发的一篇关于张又侠的社论暗示，对他的指控不仅涉及腐败，更重要的也许是对习近平不忠。

General Zhang and another commander who fell with him, Gen. Liu Zhenli, had “trampled on” the authority of the military chairman — that is, Mr. Xi — and had “severely undermined the party’s absolute leadership over the military,” the editorial said. Their actions had “rendered massive damage” on the military’s political soundness and combat readiness, it said.

社论称，张又侠与同时落马的另一名将领刘振立“践踏破坏”了军委主席（即习近平）的权威，“严重助长影响党对军队绝对领导”，并对军队的政治生态和战斗力建设造成“极大破坏”。

“It reads more to suggest that they really were challenging Xi Jinping, that it was really a personal betrayal,” said Shanshan Mei, a political scientist at RAND, a research organization, who studies China’s military. “Corruption is mentioned, but to me this gist of what they are accused of is very political, betraying Xi.”

“这种表述更像是在暗示，他们确实在挑战习近平，这是真正意义上的个人背叛，”研究机构兰德公司的政治学者、研究中国军队的梅姗姗指出。“文章提到了腐败，但在我看来，他们被指控的核心是政治问题，是对习近平的背叛。”

What prompted Mr. Xi to finally turn against General Zhang is now a topic of fevered speculation in Beijing and beyond. Some experts believe that Mr. Xi may have come to see General Zhang as too powerful after the general’s own rivals were toppled in previous purges. Others believe Mr. Xi concluded that systemic corruption was so deep that he needed drastic surgery to clear the way for a new generation of commanders.

究竟是什么促使习近平最终对张又侠出手，这如今已成为北京乃至更广泛范围内热议的话题。一些专家认为，在张又侠的政敌在此前的清洗中被扳倒后，习近平可能开始觉得他权力过大；另一些人则认为，习近平认定军队体系内的腐败已根深蒂固，必须进行一次外科手术式的清理，为新一代指挥官腾出空间。

Other allegations have emerged. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing anonymous sources, that General Zhang has been accused of leaking nuclear secrets to the United States.

其他指控也浮出水面。《华尔街日报》周日援引匿名消息源称，张又侠被指控向美国泄露核机密。

The timing of the investigation has drawn attention to General Zhang’s recent high-level engagements. Mr. Sullivan said their discussions of nuclear issues in 2024 — in the presence of about 20 other Chinese military officers — were strictly general. He said that he brought up nuclear weapons in the context of China’s overall military buildup, but said that General Zhang said nothing sensitive or even substantive on the topic.

调查的时机也引发了人们对张又侠近期高级别外交活动的关注。沙利文说，他们在2024年会面时对核问题的讨论非常宽泛，当时有约20名中国军官在场。他表示，自己是在谈及中国整体军力建设的背景下提到核武器的，张又侠未就该话题谈及任何敏感内容，甚至没有提供实质性信息。

“That was not one of the main topics of the discussion,” Mr. Sullivan said.

“那并不是讨论的主要议题之一，”沙利文说。

A ‘Princeling’ Like Xi

与习近平一样的“太子党”

Mr. Xi and General Zhang are both “princelings,” the sons of revolutionaries who served under Mao Zedong. General Zhang’s father was a general who served alongside Mr. Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, in northwest China. There is no evidence that General Zhang and Mr. Xi were close as children, but their shared background might have helped to cement their bond at some point, said Joseph Torigian, the author of a biography of the older Xi.

习近平和张又侠都是“太子党”，即曾在毛泽东麾下效力的革命者之子。张又侠的父亲是一名将军，曾与习近平的父亲习仲勋在中国西北地区共事。习仲勋传记作者唐志学(Joseph Torigian)说，没有证据表明张又侠和习近平在童年时期关系密切，但他们共同的出身背景可能在某个阶段巩固了彼此的纽带。

General Zhang was a celebrated war veteran in a nation where few active commanders have endured real combat. Mr. Xi kept him in office past retirement, and made him his top vice chairman of the Central Military Commission — Mr. Xi’s eyes and ears in running the People’s Liberation Army’s forces day to day.

在一个现役指挥官中少有人经历过实战的国家，张又侠上将是一位备受推崇的战争老兵。习近平让其超龄留任，并任命他为中央军委第一副主席——习近平在日常掌控解放军部队时的耳目。

Now, if formal charges are leveled against General Zhang, he may face a secret trial in the military justice system. If so, he is almost certain to be convicted and imprisoned.

如今，如果对张又侠正式提起指控，他可能会在军事司法体系中接受秘密审判。这样的话，他几乎肯定会被定罪并入狱。

General Zhang’s downfall “will ultimately have a big effect on the power elite in Beijing because it removes one of their safety boundaries,” said Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Chinese Communist Party newspaper in Beijing who now lives in the United States. “Even Zhang Youxia’s personal relationship with Xi Jinping was no guarantee of his safety, so nobody can feel safe.”

“张又侠的落马最后对北京的权力集团都会有一个非常大的影响，因为它把那个安全的边界给拆除了，”曾任中共党报编辑、现居美国的邓聿文说。“你就是他的亲信也没用。”

General Zhang joined the army in late 1968 and later distinguished himself as a frontline officer during China’s grinding, yearslong border war with Vietnam from 1979. Accounts from troops described him as an audacious and wily unit leader who urged soldiers to use more artillery during a series of battles for Longshan, a disputed area on the border.

张又侠于1968年末参军，后来在1979年开始的中越边境战争中担任前线军官，表现突出。这场战争持续多年，异常残酷。部队的记述称，他是一名大胆而机敏的部队指挥官，在围绕争议地区龙山的一系列战斗中，曾力主增加炮兵火力。

“We must first grab him by his throat so that he can’t escape, advance or move, and then we strike,” General Zhang told a junior officer, Li Zhongping, according to a Chinese oral history of the war published in 1989.

“我们得先抓住他的脖颈，让他跑不了，进不了，动不了再打,”根据1989年出版的一部中国战争口述史记载，张又侠曾对一名年轻军官李中平说。

After Mr. Xi became China’s leader in 2012, he quickly moved to shake up the military, which was rife with corruption and organizationally stuck in the past, ill equipped to deal with the country’s expanding naval, air and nuclear weapons ambitions. General Zhang was one of the commanders tapped by Mr. Xi to help lead his overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., culminating in a major reorganization from 2015.

习近平2012年上台后，迅速着手整顿军队——当时军队腐败严重，组织结构陈旧，难以应对中国不断扩张的海军、空军和核武器雄心。张又侠正是习近平选中的关键人物之一，参与主导了解放军改革，最终促成了2015年开始的大规模军改。

“Zhang was a key enabler of Xi’s military reform agenda prior to late-2015 — before Xi became powerful enough to impose himself on the P.L.A.,” said James Char, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore who studies the Chinese military.

“在2015年末之前、也就是习近平尚未得到足够的权力来完全掌控解放军之前，张又侠是推动习近平军改议程的关键人物之一，”研究中国军队的新加坡南洋理工大学助理教授蔡志祥(James Char)说。

In 2012, General Zhang, who was then the head of a military region in northeast China, joined a delegation of senior Chinese military officers who visited the United States. Drew Thompson, then a Pentagon official helping to organize the visit, said the general was strikingly confident and inquisitive.

2012年，时任中国东北某军区司令员的张又侠随中国高级军官代表团访问美国。时任五角大楼官员、协助组织那次访问的唐安竹(Drew Thhompson)说，张又侠当时表现出惊人的自信和求知欲。

Other Chinese officers “stood up faster and straighter when he entered a room,” Mr. Thompson said in a post on Substack on Monday. He added: “He wasn’t afraid to talk to foreigners, unlike some other senior officers who were often afraid or unable to engage.”

“当他走进房间时，”唐安竹周一在Substack上的一则贴文中写道，其他中国军官“起立得更快、站得更直”。他补充说：“他不怕与外国人交谈，不像其他一些高级军官那样，往往害怕或者无法进行交流。”

Later that year, he was promoted to head the Chinese military’s armaments department, an office that bought weapons, a post he held until 2017.

当年晚些时候，张又侠被提升为解放军总装备部部长，该部门负责武器采购，他一直担任这一职务至2017年。

The department had the makings of “a petri dish of corruption for all the obvious reasons: Developing and procuring expensive weapons systems makes it a nice place to collect bribes and kickbacks,” said Daniel Mattingly, a professor at Yale University who is studying Chinese military politics.

耶鲁大学研究中国军政的教授麦锦林(Daniel Mattingly)说，这个部门具备成为“腐败温床的所有条件。原因显而易见：研发和采购昂贵的武器系统使这里成为收受贿赂和回扣的理想场所”。

Other senior officers who worked in the department were later felled in anti-corruption investigations. Yet General Zhang had long seemed to be spared scrutiny.

该部门其他高级官员后来在反腐调查中相继落马。但张又侠长期以来似乎一直未被调查。

Now, the purge of General Zhang could raise questions about China’s strategy toward Taiwan and the risks of war. Mr. Thompson, the former Pentagon official, saw the general as someone who “had seen combat and been humbled by it.”

如今，对张又侠的清洗可能会引发关于中国对台战略以及战争风险的疑问。曾任五角大楼官员的唐安竹认为，张又侠是那种“经历过战争，并对战争心存敬畏”的人。

“I think he could assess U.S. and Taiwan military capabilities objectively and explain to Xi Jinping what the military risks and costs of an operation to take Taiwan would be,” Mr. Thompson wrote of General Zhang. “I worry about the consequences of someone other than Zhang Youxia providing Xi Jinping with military advice.”

“我认为，他能够客观评估美国和台湾的军事能力，并向习近平解释，如果发动攻占台湾的行动，其军事风险和代价是什么，”唐安竹写道。“我担心，如果由张又侠之外的人向习近平提供军事建议，可能会带来怎样的后果。”

Fourteen years ago, a Chinese icebreaker called the Snow Dragon made a long and surprising voyage.

14年前，中国破冰船“雪龙”号开启了一段漫长而惊人的航程。

Over three months in the summer, the scientific research vessel crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic, traversing nearly 5,400 nautical miles of the Arctic Ocean, a first for China. The crew discovered that melting ice meant the ship could travel through the remote region without great difficulty, the expedition leader told reporters after docking in Iceland.

那年夏天，这艘科考船首次实现了中国船只穿越北冰洋近5400海里的航程，从太平洋驶抵大西洋。考察队领队在冰岛靠岸后向记者透露，队员们发现，冰层消融让船只得以顺利穿越这片偏远海域。

“To our astonishment,” said the leader, Huigen Yang, “most part of the Northern Sea Route is open.”

“我们十分惊讶，”杨惠根表示，“东北航道的大部分水域都已畅通。”

American and European officials took notice at the time and began keeping a close watch on China’s moves in the Arctic.

当时，欧美官员对此高度关注，并开始密切留意中国在北极地区的动向。

But while China has talked about expanding trade and access to shipping lanes and natural resources in the Arctic, it has developed only a small footprint there over the years. And even as China and Russia compete with the United States in many parts of the world, they do not present a threat to American interests in or near Greenland, say experts on those two superpowers and current and former U.S. officials, including intelligence analysts.

尽管中国一直宣称希望扩大在北极的贸易、航道通行与自然资源的获取，但多年来中国在该地区的实际影响力始终有限。研究中俄的专家以及包括情报分析师在内的美国现任与前任官员均指出，即便这两个超级大国在全球多地与美国展开竞争，它们也并未对美国在格陵兰岛及其周边地区的利益构成威胁。

Those findings contrast sharply with assertions by President Trump, who has repeatedly cited security as the reason he wants to acquire Greenland. In a speech on Wednesday at an annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said Greenland was an “enormous, unsecured island” that was a “core national security interest of the United States of America.”

这一结论与特朗普总统的说法大相径庭，他多次以安全为由，提出要获得格陵兰岛。上周三在瑞士达沃斯举办的年度论坛上，特朗普称格陵兰岛是“一座面积广阔、缺乏安全保障的岛屿”，更是“美国的核心国家安全利益所在”。

However, Mr. Trump and his aides have not presented any intelligence that points to Chinese threats to Greenland.

然而，特朗普及其助手始终未能拿出任何情报，证明中国对格陵兰岛构成了威胁。

China has increased its collaboration with Russia on maritime patrols and long-range bomber patrols in the vast Arctic region, said Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the top NATO commander in Europe. But allied officials say there is no looming threat, and in any case Greenland falls under the NATO security umbrella.

北约欧洲盟军最高司令亚历克苏斯·格里克维奇将军称，中俄已加强在北极广袤区域的海上巡逻与远程轰炸机联合巡航合作。但北约盟国官员表示，目前并无迫在眉睫的威胁，且格陵兰岛处于北约安全保护伞之下。

If any problems were to emerge, the United States could expand its military presence in Greenland under a 1951 U.S.-Denmark pact. Denmark, which has sovereignty over the autonomous island, has said it would welcome more American troops. The United States had about 10,000 troops in Greenland during the Cold War, 50 times more than the 200 there now.

若出现任何问题，美国可依据1951年与丹麦签订的协议，扩大在格陵兰岛的军事存在。拥有该自治岛屿主权的丹麦已表示欢迎更多美军驻扎。冷战时期，美国在格陵兰岛曾部署约1万名士兵，是目前200人驻军规模的50倍。

Although China does have a long-term goal of projecting naval power globally, it is focused on building up its military for deployment mainly in the Asia-Pacific region, where it is vying with the United States for dominance.

尽管中国确实有实现海军力量全球投送的长期目标，但当前其军事建设的重心仍集中于亚太地区的兵力部署，与美国在此区域争夺主导权。

“Regarding China, there’s no military activity near Greenland,” said John Culver, a former intelligence analyst on China who briefed Mr. Trump in his first term. “If this administration had any intel about actual threats, it would be leaked.”

曾在特朗普第一任期内为其提供中国相关情报简报的前情报分析师约翰·卡尔弗称：“就中国而言，格陵兰岛附近并无任何军事活动。若本届政府掌握了任何切实的威胁情报，相关信息早就会泄露出去。”

“I’ve never read anything that shows China has military designs on Greenland,” he added.

他还说：“我从未看到任何证据表明中国对格陵兰岛有军事企图。”

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat who receives regular briefings from U.S. intelligence officials, expressed a similar view.

定期接收美国情报官员简报的弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·沃纳也表达了类似观点。

“Let me be clear: As vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I’m closely tracking the facts, and there is no current military threat from Russia or China to Greenland,” he said on Thursday in a statement to The New York Times. “The only immediate threat right now is from the United States, with talk of taking territory from one of our closest allies.”

“我明确表示，作为参议院情报委员会副主席，我一直在密切关注相关事实。目前，俄罗斯和中国均未对格陵兰岛构成军事威胁，”上周四，沃纳在致《纽约时报》的声明中称。“当下唯一的直接威胁，恰恰来自美国——竟有人声称要从最亲密的盟友手中夺取领土。”

“Denmark has been clear: If we want expanded military access or greater cooperation on critical minerals, they’re open to it, but it must be done in partnership, not through intimidation and saber rattling,” Mr. Warner added. “When we create chaos with our allies, we weaken America’s ability to meet real global threats and make ourselves less safe.”

“丹麦的态度十分明确：若美国希望扩大军事准入权，或在关键矿产领域深化合作，丹麦愿意配合，但必须通过伙伴关系实现，而非依靠胁迫和武力示威，”沃纳还说。“当我们与盟友关系陷入混乱时，美国应对全球实际威胁的能力会被削弱，自身安全也将受到影响。”

China and Russia collect some intelligence near Greenland and in the Arctic that is focused mostly on activities at the U.S. military’s Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, an American official said. And Russian submarines and other military assets have sailed near Greenland. But neither country has threatened Greenland’s sovereignty or security, said that official and another U.S. official.

一名美国官员透露，中俄在格陵兰岛附近及北极地区开展了一些情报搜集活动，主要是针对美国在格陵兰岛皮图菲克太空基地的军事行动。俄罗斯潜艇及其他军事资产也曾在格陵兰岛周边航行。但该官员与另一名美国官员均表示，两国均未威胁格陵兰岛的主权与安全。

Former U.S. officials said that during the Biden administration, there were no major intelligence reports about Russian or Chinese activities near Greenland. And Western intelligence officials said no significant activity was reported in the past year.

前任美国官员指出，拜登政府执政期间，并无关于中俄在格陵兰岛附近开展重大活动的情报报告。西方情报官员也表示，过去一年中，该地区未出现任何值得关注的异常活动迹象。

Mr. Culver said China is not an Arctic power yet in any real sense. And in any case, China does not need Greenland or to get close to the American mainland to launch nuclear warheads at the continental United States. The same goes for Russia.

卡尔弗表示，中国目前尚未成为真正意义上的北极国家。况且，无论中国还是俄罗斯，都无需通过格陵兰岛或靠近美国本土，就能向美国本土发射核弹头。

In 2020, China’s first domestic-built icebreaker, the Snow Dragon Two, completed an Arctic expedition. (The original Snow Dragon was built in Ukraine during the Soviet era.) China now has a handful of icebreakers, but commercial Chinese vessels going through the region rely on Russian icebreakers and Russian outposts.

2020年，中国首艘自主建造的破冰船“雪龙2”号完成了北极科考任务（初代“雪龙”号为苏联时期乌克兰建造）。如今，中国虽拥有数艘破冰船，但中国商船在北极航行时仍需依赖俄罗斯的破冰船和俄罗斯前哨站。

What China wants is to have certain rights in the Arctic, including ones related to navigation, natural resource extraction and environmental management, Mr. Culver said. Discussions about those issues often take place at meetings of the Arctic Council, a multilateral organization established in 1996 whose eight full members include the United States and Russia. China has observer status.

卡尔弗称，中国希望在北极获得一定权利，包括航行权、自然资源开采权以及环境管理权。这些议题的相关讨论通常在北极理事会会议中进行。该多边组织成立于1996年，八个正式成员国中包含美国与俄罗斯，中国是观察员。

Some former U.S. officials said they were concerned about the strains that Mr. Trump’s push to control Greenland was putting on relations between the United States and its European allies, and how the tensions weakened the ability of those nations to challenge or deter Chinese or Russian ambitions across the globe.

部分美国前官员担忧，特朗普强行收购格陵兰岛的举动会损害美国与欧洲盟友的关系，而这种紧张关系将削弱这些国家联合应对或遏制中俄全球扩张野心的能力。

“We already have de facto control in Greenland,” said Rush Doshi, a former China director on the Biden White House’s National Security Council. “The marginal increase in control we might get from taking the territory threatens to blow up our relations with important allies and partners.”

拜登政府时期白宫国家安全委员会中国事务前主管杜如松(Rush Doshi)表示：“我们实际上已经控制了格陵兰岛。占领领土可能带来的控制权的有限提升，却有可能破坏我们与重要盟友和伙伴的关系。”

Those relations are needed for the United States and its allies to work together to re-industrialize at scale in order to compete with China, he added.

他还说，这些关系对美方及其盟友携手推进大规模再工业化以应对中国竞争至关重要。

Mr. Doshi said China does seek to make commercial inroads in the Arctic, but the United States can address those in talks with allies and partners. And any Arctic challenge from China, he said, is “less significant than the Soviet threat during the Cold War. And even during the Cold War, we didn’t militarily seize Greenland. If we didn’t seize it then, what’s the reason to seize it now?”

杜如松指出，中国确实希望在北极开拓商业活动，但美国可通过与盟友及伙伴协商来应对这一挑战。他认为，中国在北极构成的挑战“远不及冷战时期苏联带来的威胁。即便在冷战期间，美国也未以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛。既然当时没有这样做，如今又有什么理由这样做呢？”

Mr. Trump has mentioned that Greenland has critical minerals, which are important for civilian and military uses. Last year, Chinese leaders threatened to impose bans on exports of its processed rare earths and critical minerals to the United States, which compelled Mr. Trump to back down from his trade war with China.

特朗普曾提及格陵兰岛拥有大量对民用和军用至关重要的矿产资源。去年，中国领导人威胁要禁止向美国出口加工稀土及关键矿产，迫使特朗普在中美贸易战中让步。

Mr. Trump has said that having access to the raw minerals is not the main issue for the United States, but rather having the ability to process and refine them. China has a global monopoly on that production, and U.S. territorial control of Greenland would not change that.

特朗普称，对美国而言，获取这些矿产原料并非核心问题，关键在于掌握其加工与提炼技术。目前，中国在该领域占据全球垄断地位，即便美国取得格陵兰岛的领土控制权，这一局面也难以改变。

As for Russia, it has been an Arctic power since the Cold War, but it does not pose an immediate threat to Greenland, said Fiona Hill, a senior director for Russian and European affairs in the first Trump administration.

特朗普第一任期内负责俄罗斯与欧洲事务的前高级主管菲奥娜·希尔表示，俄罗斯自冷战时期起便是北极强国，但目前并未对格陵兰岛构成直接威胁。

“Trump has become obsessed with owning it,” she said. “He wants the greatest land deal in history — that’s the context.”

“特朗普对拥有格陵兰岛产生了执念，”她称。“他一心想达成这笔史上最大的土地交易，这才是问题的本质。”

Mr. Trump’s statements in interviews about his personal desire to acquire Greenland underscore the idea that the concern over security appears to be a pretext. It is similar to how he cited drug smuggling from Venezuela last fall as the rationale for his renewed aggression against that country when the actual core reason turned out to be his drive for its oil.

特朗普在采访中多次提及个人获取格陵兰岛的意愿，这进一步表明他所谓的安全担忧或许只是借口。这与去年秋季他以委内瑞拉毒品走私为由重启对该国施压如出一辙——实际的核心动机是觊觎委内瑞拉的石油资源。

Speaking about Greenland, Mr. Trump said in a Times interview this month that taking it was “psychologically important for me.” And in 2021, he told the authors of the book “The Divider” that he needed to acquire the island because it was “massive.”

本月接受《纽约时报》采访时，特朗普称获取格陵兰岛 “对我而言具有重要的心理意义”。2021年，他在接受《分裂者》(The Divider)一书作者采访时也曾表示，必须获得这座岛屿，只因它“太大了”。

Mr. Doshi said, “Is this really about China and Russia, or is the discussion of China and Russia masking the reality of what is behind the drive for Greenland, which is an imperial project based on vanity?”

杜如松说：“这真的是为了应对中俄威胁吗？还是借讨论中俄掩盖真实动机——对格陵兰的觊觎本质上是基于虚荣心的帝国主义企图？”

Secret recordings of Peruvian presidents are nothing new. Nor are corruption accusations leading to impeachments. Over the past decade, Peru has had seven presidents, none of whom has managed to hang on for longer than three years. One resigned within a week.

秘鲁总统被秘密录音或者偷拍并不是什么新鲜事。因腐败指控而导致的弹劾同样屡见不鲜。过去十年间，秘鲁已经更换了七位总统，没有一位任期超过三年，其中一位甚至上台不到一周即宣告辞职。

The country’s current president, José Jerí, 39, who presided over the impeachment of his predecessor and who was then installed in her place last October, could join that list.

现任总统何塞·耶里现年39岁，他曾主持对前任总统的弹劾，随后于去年10月接替了这一职位，而如今，他也可能与前任们面临同样的命运。

In a leaked video released this month, CCTV footage from Dec. 26 shows Mr. Jerí being dropped off by a car belonging to the president’s office and then attempting to cover his face with the hood of his sweatshirt as he entered Xin Yan Restaurant, which is owned by Yang Zhihua, a Chinese businessman who has come under government scrutiny.

本月公开的一段泄露视频显示，去年12月26日的监控画面中，耶里乘坐总统办公室的车辆抵达鑫焱食府，他把卫衣的兜帽拉起遮掩面部。这家餐厅的老板是正受到政府调查的华商杨志华（音）。

Another video leaked a week later shows Mr. Jerí in one of the numerous corner stores that Mr. Yang owns in the capital, Lima. He can be seen shouting into his phone in front of Mr. Yang. Local media had reported that Mr. Yang’s store had been ordered shut down for violating a municipal ordinance. Three days later, the ordinance was struck down by a federal regulatory body.

一周后流出的另一段视频显示，耶里出现在杨志华于首都利马经营的众多街角便利店中的一家。画面中可见他当着杨志华的面对着手机大声喊话。据当地媒体报道，这家便利店此前因违反市政条例被勒令停业，但三天后该条例被联邦监管机构撤销。

According to Peruvian law, Mr. Jerí, who has acknowledged the authenticity of the videos, is legally required to log all his official activities and did not disclose his visits to the restaurant and the store.

根据秘鲁法律，总统必须依法登记所有的公务活动。耶里虽已承认视频真实性，但并未申报曾经前往该餐厅与便利店的行程。

Under withering questioning from federal lawmakers this week, Mr. Jerí has been defiant.

本周，在联邦立法者的严厉质询下，耶里的态度依然强硬。

He said he had known Mr. Yang, who he calls “Johnny,” before he became president. As for the visits, he enjoys Chinese food and happened to pass the store and thought to buy some candy and paintings. (But, he added, “Johnny wouldn’t let me pay because he was being kind to me.”)

他说，在成为总统之前，他就认识那位他称作“约翰尼”的杨先生。至于这些到访，他解释称自己喜欢中餐，恰好路过那家店，便想进去买些糖果和画作。（但他补充说，“约翰尼对我很好，不肯收钱。”）

And the shouting? It was a call from his press secretary about an unrelated matter that had upset him. He refused to share his phone’s call history with lawmakers and journalists.

至于视频中大声喊叫的情形，他表示那是新闻秘书就一件无关事务打来的电话，令他情绪激动。他拒绝向立法者和记者提供手机通话记录。

“These are normal actions that people, regardless of their position, carry out, but they have been distorted for purposes that the investigations will surely reveal,” he said in Congress on Thursday.

"这些都是人们不论身处何种职位都会做出的正常行为，但却遭到曲解——调查终将揭露其真实意图。"他周四在国会如此表示。

Mr. Jerí’s defense has been met with deep skepticism.

耶里的辩白遭到了强烈质疑。

At least 20 lawmakers have signed onto motions that, if passed, would result in Mr. Jerí’s impeachment, a number that kept rising on Thursday. Of the 130 members of the lower house, 66 must vote for impeachment for a president to be removed. And on Tuesday, Peru’s prosecutors’ office said it had opened a graft investigation into his meetings with Mr. Yang.

至少已有20名立法者在弹劾动议上签名；若该动议获得通过，将导致弹劾，联署人数在周四仍在上升。在130席的下议院中，需获得66票赞成方能罢免总统。与此同时，秘鲁检察机关周二表示，已就耶里与杨志华的会面展开贪腐调查。

Mr. Yang has more than a dozen companies in Peru, including a construction firm that has won several contracts from the police, a hydroelectric company that was granted a state concession to build a dam, and a ceramics factory that, according to a national trade association, was built without proper permits.

杨志华在秘鲁拥有十多家公司，其中包括一家曾多次获得警方合同的建筑公司、一家获国家特许修建水坝的水电公司，以及一家据全国行业协会称未取得必要许可就建成的陶瓷厂。

The New York Times obtained a confidential report on Thursday about Chinese companies accused of corruption in Peru that was drafted by a congressional committee last year.

《纽约时报》周四获取了一份去年由一个国会委员会起草的机密报告，内容涉及被指控在秘鲁涉及腐败的中资企业。

In it, Mr. Yang was identified as a junior partner in a more than $50 million highway project led by a local subsidiary of China Railway Engineering Corporation that became the subject of an arbitration dispute. The report accuses Mr. Yang’s construction company of conspiring to defraud the Peruvian state by using the economic leverage of large, Chinese state-owned companies to secure contracts for projects that were later abandoned.

报告指出，杨志华是一个公路项目中的小合作方，该项目由中国铁路工程集团在当地的子公司主导，总额超过5000万美元，后来引发了仲裁纠纷。报告指控杨志华的建筑公司利用中国大型国企的经济影响力获取项目合同，而这些项目随后又被弃置，合谋欺诈秘鲁政府。

Mr. Jerí’s office did not respond to a request for an interview and Mr. Yang could not be reached for comment.

耶里的办公室未回应采访请求，记者亦未能联系到杨志华置评。

Willax, a conservative cable channel, broadcast a third video of Mr. Jerí with Mr. Yang. It appears to have been recorded by a person wearing a hidden camera, and offers a glimpse of a separate moment at Mr. Yang’s store during Mr. Jerí’s visit there on Jan. 6. It shows members of Mr. Jerí’s team collecting bags of goods from people who appear to be the store’s employees. Someone off-camera says, “This is for the comandante.”

保守派的有线电视台Willax播出了耶里与杨志华的第三段视频。该视频似乎由一名佩戴隐藏摄像头的人拍摄，记录了耶里1月6日到访杨志华店铺期间的另一场景。画面显示，耶里的团队成员从貌似商店员工的人手中接过装满物品的袋子。画面之外有人说道：“这是给指挥官的。”

Peru’s Congress is currently on summer break, complicating efforts to summon an extraordinary plenary session to impeach Mr. Jerí, though lawmakers from across the political spectrum have expressed support for doing so.

秘鲁国会目前正处于夏季休会期，这加大了召集特别全体会议弹劾耶里的难度，尽管来自各政治派别的立法者都已表示支持这样做。

Peru already has presidential elections scheduled for April. Part of Mr. Jerí’s defense has been to accuse his political opponents of releasing the videos to “alter the electoral process.” Before the scandal broke, Mr. Jerí enjoyed a relatively high approval rating of 51 percent in the latest polling.

秘鲁已安排在4月举行总统选举。耶里的自辩包括指责政治对手散布这些视频，意在“干扰选举进程”。在丑闻曝光之前，耶里在最新民调中的支持率相对较高，达到51%。

Many Peruvians have responded to the mushrooming scandal with jadedness.

许多秘鲁民众对这起持续发酵的丑闻反应冷淡。

“Our politicians are all corrupt and they sell themselves to the highest bidder,” said Jacinta Martínez, 45, a landscaper in Lima. “Today it’s the Chinese who are buying them, tomorrow it will be Peruvians or Venezuelans or Americans.”

“我们的政客都很腐败，谁出价最高就把自己卖给谁，”在利马从事园艺工作、45岁的哈辛塔·马丁内斯说道。“今天是中国人收买他们，明天可能就是秘鲁人、委内瑞拉人或者美国人。”

Peru’s relationship with China has grown increasingly close. More than a decade has passed since China became Peru’s biggest trading partner, and in 2024, Chinese companies completed construction of an enormous port north of Lima — part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. China is the main buyer of Peru’s largest export, copper. Chinese companies are heavily involved in Peruvian infrastructure and telecommunications, and Peruvians can visit China visa-free as tourists.

秘鲁与中国的关系日益紧密。十多年前，中国就已成为秘鲁最大的贸易伙伴；2024年，中国企业在利马以北建成了一座规模巨大的港口，这是北京“一带一路”倡议的一部分。中国是秘鲁最大出口产品铜的主要买家。中企深度参与秘鲁基础设施和电信建设，秘鲁公民可免签前往中国。

The United States has sought to counter Chinese influence in Peru, in large part through forging a closer military partnership. Mr. Jerí has tried to thread the needle by welcoming both Chinese and American investment.

美国一直试图削弱中国在秘鲁的影响力，其中很大一部分努力体现在打造更紧密的军事伙伴关系方面。耶里则一直尝试同时欢迎中美投资，以此在两国之间寻求平衡。

During Mr. Jerí’s brief time in office, President Trump notified Congress that he intended to make Peru a “Major Non-NATO Ally,” a designation that Colombia, Brazil and Argentina also share, and the State Department said Peru had asked to purchase $1.5 billion worth of U.S. equipment and services to support construction of a new naval base near Lima.

在耶里的短暂任期内间，特朗普总统已通知国会，他打算将秘鲁列为“重要非北约盟友”，哥伦比亚、巴西和阿根廷也已获得该地位。美国国务院还表示，秘鲁已提出购买价值15亿美元的美国装备和服务，用于支持在利马附近建设一座新的海军基地。

In December, the U.S. Senate approved Mr. Trump’s nomination of Bernie Navarro, a self-described America First champion who has vowed to “root out” growing Chinese influence, as the new ambassador to Peru.

去年12月，美国参议院批准了特朗普提名伯尼·纳瓦罗出任新一任驻秘鲁大使。纳瓦罗自称是“美国优先”的捍卫者，并誓言要“根除”不断扩大的中国影响力。

Some of Mr. Jerí’s political allies have said that they believe the geopolitical jockeying between the United States and China precipitated the scandal embroiling the president. In an interview with a Peruvian newspaper this week, Prime Minister Ernesto Alvarez said the videos may have been leaked to the media to damage Mr. Jerí for seeking stronger ties with Washington.

耶里的一些政治盟友表示，他们认为美中地缘政治博弈是引爆总统丑闻的导火索。部长会议主席埃内斯托·阿尔瓦雷斯本周在接受一家秘鲁报纸采访时称，这些视频泄露给媒体可能是为了打击寻求与华盛顿加强关系的耶里。

He suggested it could be China, saying that the Chinese were upset about the naval base. “We’ve stated transparently that Peru should be an ally of the United States,” he said.

他暗示这背后可能是中国，称中方对海军基地一事感到不满。“我们已明确表态，秘鲁应该成为美国的盟友，”他说。

The Chinese and American embassies in Lima did not respond to requests for comment, nor did Mr. Navarro, the incoming U.S. ambassador.

中国和美国驻利马大使馆均未回应置评请求，即将上任的美国大使纳瓦罗也未作回应。

Earlier this week, Cuarto Poder, the same outlet that published the video of Mr. Jerí in Mr. Yang’s shop, reported that another Chinese businessman, Ji Wu Xiaodong, who is under investigation for his role in a criminal organization involved in illegal logging, had visited the presidential palace three times since Mr. Jerí took office. Mr. Ji Wu had been ordered held under house arrest.

本周早些时候，此前曝光耶里在杨志华店铺视频的媒体《第四权力》报道称，另一名华商季武晓东（音）在耶里上任以来曾三次造访总统府。季武晓东因涉嫌参与一个从事非法伐木的犯罪组织而正接受调查，目前处于居家监禁的状态。

Mr. Jerí told lawmakers that Mr. Ji Wu was a friend of Mr. Yang’s and said he did not know Mr. Ji Wu well and that he barely spoke Spanish. Mr. Ji Wu is accredited by Peru’s foreign ministry as an official Chinese-Spanish translator.

耶里向议员表示，季武晓东是杨志华的朋友，但自己跟他并不熟悉，而且对方几乎不会说西班牙语。而根据秘鲁外交部记录，季武晓东具有官方认证的中西语翻译资质。

According to Peru’s energy regulator, Osinergmin, Mr. Yang’s hydroelectric company, Hidroeléctrica America, has made no progress on building the $24.4 million, 20 megawatt dam as of the end of last year. It is due for completion in March. The company could lose a $244,000 deposit it if does not fulfill the contract.

据秘鲁能源监管机构Osinergmin的记录，截至去年年底，杨志华旗下的水电公司美洲水电公司在建设这个造价2440万美元、装机容量20兆瓦的水坝项目上毫无进展。该项目原定于今年3月完工，若未能履行合同，该公司可能会损失24.4万美元的保证金。

In his testimony before lawmakers this week, Mr. Jerí mentioned two additional, unregistered meetings with Mr. Yang — two more December meals at Mr. Yang’s Xin Yan Restaurant.

耶里本周在国会作证时，还提到了另外两次未申报的会面——去年12月在杨志华的鑫焱食府用过两次餐。

Videos of those meetings have yet to emerge, but on a late night TV show on Wednesday, Beto Ortiz, a journalist for Willax claimed that he knew of 19 more videos of Mr. Jerí meeting with Mr. Yang, and teased details from the ones he’d seen.

这些会面的视频尚未曝光，但在周三深夜的一档电视节目中，Willax的记者贝托·奥尔蒂斯声称，他知道耶里与杨志华碰面的视频还有19段，并透露了自己已看过的部分内容。

For his part Mr. Jerí said he is eager to have any videos of him made public.

耶里则表示，他非常希望所有关于他的视频都能公之于众。

“Hopefully they’ll start airing them,” Mr. Jerí said at a news conference on Thursday afternoon, “so we can verify and get many more clues about who’s behind them and what the links are between them.”

“希望他们尽快公开这些视频，”耶里在周四下午的新闻发布会上表示。“这样我们就能核实并获取更多线索，查明幕后主使，以及他们之间到底存在怎样的关联。”

Alex Honnold, a rock climber who was the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary “Free Solo,” successfully climbed the 1,667-foot-tall skyscraper Taipei 101 in Taiwan on Sunday, without a rope.

周日，奥斯卡获奖纪录片《徒手攀岩》(Free Solo)的主角、攀岩运动员亚历克斯·霍诺德在台湾徒手攀上了高508米的台北101大楼。

Scaling a building that tall is not like climbing a mountain. Those in the club of just a dozen or so known skyscraper climbers worldwide say the activity comes with unique physical and mental demands.

攀爬如此高度的建筑与攀岩截然不同。全球仅有十几位知名的摩天大楼攀爬者，他们表示这项运动对人的身心有着独特的要求。

It is also a largely underground sport because it is usually illegal. Alain Robert, a Frenchman who has scaled some 200 buildings since the 1990s, mostly with his bare hands, said that he has been arrested more than 170 times.

这也是一项基本处于地下状态的运动，因为它在多数情况下都是违法的。法国人阿兰·罗贝尔自上世纪90年代以来徒手攀爬了约200座建筑，他透露自己因此被捕了170多次。

“You feel like you’re literally in a movie,” Mr. Robert said, with “cops that are trying to catch the bad guy climbing the building.”

罗贝尔说，“你会感觉自己仿佛置身电影之中，警察在追捕那个攀爬大楼的坏蛋。”

The obvious risks make it rare for someone to obtain permission to climb a tall building, as Mr. Honnold did. His climb on Sunday was broadcast live on Netflix.

这项运动的风险显而易见，因此极少有人能像霍诺德这样，获得攀爬高层建筑的官方许可。他此次的攀爬行动由Netflix进行了全球直播。

“I’ve never been willing to get arrested,” the 40-year-old said in a podcast recorded before the climb.

这位40岁的运动员在攀爬前录制的一档播客中表示：“我从不愿意因为攀爬而被捕。”

Unlike the serene natural landscape surrounding climbers on routes like El Capitan in Yosemite National Park, which Mr. Honnold scaled in 2017, skyscraper climbers must overcome urban noise, crowds and, occasionally, police officers determined to arrest them.

2017年，霍诺德曾徒手攀上约塞米蒂国家公园的酋长岩，那里有着静谧的自然景观；与此形成鲜明对比的是，摩天大楼攀爬者却要直面城市的喧嚣、人群的围观，有时还要躲避决意将他们逮捕的警察。

“You feel like King Kong in the city,” said Titouan Leduc, 24, a French climber who scaled Warsaw’s Varso Tower, the tallest skyscraper in the European Union, last year. He was briefly arrested after that.

24岁的法国攀爬者蒂图安·勒杜去年曾攀上欧盟最高建筑华沙的瓦尔索塔，他说：“在城市里攀爬时，你会觉得自己就像城市中的金刚。”事后他曾被短暂拘留。

Those who have climbed skyscrapers say their bodies face different demands compared with rock climbing.

有过摩天大楼攀爬经历的人表示，这项运动对身体的要求与攀岩截然不同。

According to Dan Goodwin, who in 1986 climbed the CN Tower in Toronto — then the tallest structure in the world — skyscraper climbing mainly comes down to repetitiveness versus variety.

丹·古德温曾在1986年攀上当时世界最高建筑——多伦多的加拿大国家电视塔，他表示，摩天大楼攀爬的核心特点在于动作的重复性，攀岩则讲究动作的多样性。

On a rock face, each move presents a new puzzle: climbers’ hands search for different holds — crimps, jugs, slopers — and they constantly adapt their bodies. But along the side of a building, climbers repeat the same few movements hundreds of times to pass over dozens of stories of windows, steel bars and concrete gaps.

在岩壁上攀爬时，每一个动作都是全新的挑战：攀爬者要摸索不同的抓点，比如折点、大把手点、斜面点，身体也需要不断做出调整。但在建筑外立面攀爬时，为了翻越数十层的窗户、钢筋和混凝土缝隙，攀爬者需要数百次重复同样的几个动作。

“You can do a pull-up and think it’s not all too bad, but try doing 20, 50, 100,” Mr. Goodwin said. “Doing the same kind of move over and over and over — it can really tax your muscles and fingers.”

“你做一个引体向上，可能觉得没什么，但试试做20个、50个、100个，”古德温说。“一遍又一遍地重复同一个动作，会让肌肉和手指承受巨大的负荷。”

Mr. Goodwin, 70, said that by the time he finished climbing the CN Tower, his right hand was covered in blisters and left shoulder felt as though it were on fire.

70岁的古德温回忆，当年攀上加拿大国家电视塔后，他的右手满是水泡，左肩更是疼得像着了火一样。

“I was terrified,” he said, recalling the day he reached the base of the tower’s observation deck, 1,100 feet above a crowd of onlookers and with no rope, harness or other safety equipment. “Every move had to be perfect.”

“我很害怕，”他回忆起抵达电视塔观景台底部的那一刻，那里距离地面约335米，下面挤满了围观人群，他身上没有绳索、安全带，也没有任何其他安全装备。“每一个动作都必须做到完美。”

Mr. Robert, 63, developed his own system for rating buildings based on how difficult they are to climb. A building’s grips mattered more than its height, he said.

现年63岁的罗贝尔为建筑攀爬制定了一套专属的难度评级体系。他表示，建筑的可抓握点比高度更关键。

He gave the Brooklyn Bridge a difficulty rating of two out of 10 after climbing it in 1994. He gave the same rating to the Eiffel Tower, which he scaled with his bare hands in 1996. “It’s really like a ladder,” he said of the Paris landmark.

1994年攀上布鲁克林大桥后，他将其难度评为10分制中的二分；1996年徒手攀上埃菲尔铁塔后，他也给出了同样的评分。谈及这座巴黎地标，他说：“爬它其实就像爬梯子一样。”

He was also the last person to climb Taipei 101, in 2004, then the tallest building in the world. He completed the climb just days after having surgery on his left elbow, in heavy rain and with a top rope, which he said the authorities had required.

2004年，他成为上一位攀登台北101大楼的人，当时这座大楼还是世界最高建筑，他在左手肘部刚做完手术后不久，就在大雨中完成了攀爬，过程中使用了顶绳保护装置，他称这是当地有关部门的要求。

Mr. Robert gave Taipei 101 a rating of six.

罗贝尔将台北101大楼的难度评为六分。

In contrast, the small gaps on the surface of the Sydney Opera House, which he climbed in 1997 and rated as a seven, allowed him to hold on only with his fingertips.

相比之下，他在1997年攀登的悉尼歌剧院表面仅有细小缝隙，只能用指尖抓握，为此他给该建筑评了七分。

In 1999, Mr. Robert scaled what he said was one of the most difficult buildings he had ever climbed, rating it a nine: the Sears Tower, now called the Willis Tower, in Chicago. He gave the Burj Khalifa in the United Arab Emirates, the world’s tallest building, the same grade after climbing it in 2011.

1999年，罗贝尔攀上了他声称爬过的最难建筑之一—— 芝加哥的西尔斯大厦（现名威利斯大厦），并将其难度评为九分；2011年攀上世界第一高楼阿联酋哈利法塔后，他也给出了同样的评分。

The most difficult building he ever encountered? A relatively humble 44-story office building west of Paris in 1998. He said the only way up the Tour Framatome, now called the Tour Areva, is by jamming one’s fingers into a vertical groove between glass panels. Halfway through that climb, he said, the crack unexpectedly became so narrow that his fingers could barely fit.

那他爬过的最难建筑是哪一座？答案是他在1998年攀上的一座看似普通的44层写字楼，位于巴黎西郊。这栋楼原名为法马通大厦、现名阿海珐大厦，唯一的攀爬方式就是将手指塞进玻璃幕墙间的垂直缝隙。罗贝尔说，爬到一半时，缝隙突然变得异常狭窄，他的手指几乎无法伸进去。

“It’s like your entire life is hanging at the tip of your finger,” he said. He rated that difficulty a 10.

“那一刻，感觉你的整个性命都悬在指尖，”他说。他将这座建筑的攀爬难度评为满分10分。

Some climbers said they were concerned that Mr. Honnold’s climb, carried live on Netflix, would encourage reckless, untrained attempts.

一些攀爬者表示，霍诺德此次由网飞直播的攀爬行动可能会助长未经训练的鲁莽尝试，这让他们深感担忧。

“My message to kids: Don’t do it,” Mr. Goodwin said. “Unless you’re a world-class climber like Alex Honnold and Alain Robert, unless you have that ability, it’s a suicide mission.”

“我想对孩子们说：不要这么做，”古德温说。“除非你是像亚历克斯·霍诺德和阿兰·罗贝尔这样的世界级攀爬者，除非你拥有同等的实力，否则这种尝试无异于自杀。”

For others, the danger keeps them going.

但对另一些人而言，正是这份危险给他们带来动力。

“The only way I felt alive was when I was risking my life,” Mr. Robert said, adding that he might try climbing another building in the coming weeks.

“只有在拿性命冒险时，我才觉得自己真正活着，”罗贝尔说。他还透露，未来几周可能会尝试攀爬另一座建筑。

When the Chinese internet giant ByteDance officially split TikTok into separate entities for America and the rest of the world on Thursday, the deal marked a final capitulation for the survival of its popular social media app in the United States after an arduous six-year fight.

上周四，中国互联网巨头字节跳动正式将TikTok拆分为美国本土和全球业务两个独立实体，这场历经六年艰难博弈后达成的交易标志着这款热门社交媒体应用为保住美国市场做出了最终妥协。

The outcome of a fractured TikTok underscores the difficult choice facing Chinese technology companies with global aspirations. In the United States, they must contend with shifting geopolitical fault lines, drawn-out legal battles and mistrust of any company with Chinese roots. Alternatively, they could chart a different international path — one with potentially less hassle but without access to the world’s largest economy.

TikTok的分拆结局，凸显了怀揣全球愿景的中国科技企业面临的艰难抉择：在美国市场，它们不得不应对不断变化的地缘政治裂痕、漫长的法律诉讼，以及美国各界对所有中国背景企业的不信任；而另一条国际化路径虽可能减少阻力，却意味着无缘进入全球最大的经济体。

Over the past six years, as TikTok became a point of contention between China and the United States, some Chinese tech companies thought they had found a blueprint to make themselves more palatable to American officials and investors.

过去六年间，随着TikTok成为中美博弈的焦点，部分中国科技企业曾认为找到了能让美国官方和投资者更容易接受的发展蓝图。

A handful of companies, including TikTok, moved their headquarters out of China to locations like Singapore. Others spent millions on marketing to foster familiarity among American consumers. Some firms blocked access to users in China, adding credence to the argument that they are not Chinese companies.

包括TikTok在内的少数企业将总部迁出中国，落户新加坡等地；还有一些企业斥资数以百万计的美元开展营销，力求加深美国消费者对品牌的认知；一些企业甚至屏蔽了中国用户的访问权限，以此强化自身非中国企业的说法。

Last month, the artificial intelligence start-up Manus seemed to have found a way to circumvent geopolitics when Meta announced that it had acquired the company for a reported $2 billion. Manus was founded by Chinese engineers and has affiliated offices in China, but moved its headquarters to Singapore last year. Its products are no longer accessible in China.

上个月，当Meta宣布以约20亿美元收购人工智能初创企业Manus时，该公司似乎找到了绕开地缘政治阻碍的办法。Manus由中国工程师创立，在中国设有办事处，但已于去年将总部迁至新加坡，其产品也已停止向中国地区提供服务。

Manus drew attention from Silicon Valley last March when it introduced an A.I. agent that could be directed to build websites and do other basic coding tasks with limited human intervention. By December, Manus said, it had surpassed $100 million in annual recurring revenue.

去年3月，Manus推出一款AI智能体，仅需少量人工干预，就能按指令搭建网站、完成其他基础编码工作，这一产品迅速吸引了硅谷的关注。该公司称，截至去年12月，其年度经常性收入已突破1亿美元。

Online in China, tech industry commentators and investors said Manus had cracked the code for raising cash from American investors, seemingly without much regulatory scrutiny. But only days later, the Chinese government said it was investigating whether Meta’s acquisition had violated the country’s laws on technology exports and outbound investment.

在中国网络上，科技行业评论人士和投资者认为，Manus似乎在未受太多监管审查的情况下，破解了吸引美国资本的密码。但就在收购消息公布数日后，中国政府宣布正就Meta的收购是否违反了中国技术出口和境外投资相关法律展开调查。

China has intensified its oversight of the technology industry, especially in key sectors. In 2020, China amended its rules on what companies can export to include a range of software technologies. This amendment gave the Chinese government the power to approve or reject any deal involving the licensing of TikTok’s technology.

中国已加强对科技行业的监管力度，尤其是在一些关键领域。2020年，中国修订了企业出口管理规定，将一系列软件技术纳入出口监管范畴，这一修订赋予中国政府批准或否决TikTok技术授权相关交易的权力。

Some in the tech industry have taken to calling the efforts to downplay Chinese roots “China shedding.” Despite the regulatory scrutiny, they say, the Manus acquisition shows other start-ups how it can be done.

科技行业内，一些人将这种淡化中国背景的做法称作“去中国化”。他们指出，尽管面临监管审查，但Manus的收购案例为其他初创企业提供了可借鉴的做法。

“Manus is the first successful exit of China shedding for a start-up,” said Kevin Xu, the U.S.-based founder of Interconnected Capital, a hedge fund that invests in artificial intelligence companies.

“Manus是初创企业通过脱离中国实现成功退出的首个案例，”总部位于美国的对冲基金Interconnected Capital的创始人徐凯文（音）表示，该基金专注于人工智能领域投资。

Chinese companies face an urgent need to find new markets. The collapse of the real estate market has left consumers reluctant to spend. Across industries, from food delivery to electric vehicles, Chinese start-ups compete intensely for increasingly smaller returns, a state of cutthroat competition that policymakers call “involution.”

中国企业正面临着寻找新市场的紧迫需求：国内房地产市场的崩盘导致消费者消费意愿不足，从外卖到电动汽车，各行业的中国初创企业为日益微薄的利润展开激烈竞争，这种白热化的竞争态势被政策制定者称为“内卷”。

Many Chinese entrepreneurs have concluded that “when you build a business outside China, you are able to have better margins and to sleep more easily,” said Jianggan Li, chief executive of Momentum Works, a consultancy in Singapore.

“在海外创业，不仅能获得更可观的利润，也能睡得更安稳，”新加坡咨询公司墨腾创投首席执行官李江干说，许多中国创业者都有这样的体会。

While Chinese start-ups contend with stiff competition at home, they face mounting scrutiny in the United States. In 2019, a U.S. government committee forced the Chinese company that owned the dating app Grindr to divest from the app over concerns that the Chinese government could gain access to sensitive data about Americans, including their locations and dating preferences.

中国初创企业在国内面临激烈竞争的同时，在美国市场遭遇的审查也日益严苛。2019年，因担心中国政府可能获取美国用户的位置、约会偏好等敏感数据，美国政府的一个委员会强制要求运营交友应用Grindr的中国企业剥离该应用的所有权。

These days, storing American users’ data in the country and closer oversight from regulators are expected for Chinese companies operating in the United States, said Wei Sun, a principal analyst in A.I. at Counterpoint Research in Beijing.

北京Counterpoint Research的人工智能首席分析师孙伟（音）表示，如今，在美国运营的中国企业需将美国用户的数据存储在当地，并接受监管机构更严格的监督，这已成为常态。

But the regulatory and political scrutiny is prompting some Chinese companies to reconsider doing business in the United States and turn to other large markets instead.

但严苛的监管和政治审查正促使部分中国企业重新考虑在美国的业务，转而投向其他大型市场。

Last May, Meituan, China’s largest food delivery company, said it would spend $1 billion to set up operations in Brazil.

去年5月，中国最大的外卖平台美团宣布，将斥资10亿美元在巴西布局业务。

Meituan is known for its no-holds-barred approach. It operated at a loss for years, offering shoppers steep discounts and undercutting competitors. Meituan deployed similar tactics in 2024 when it rolled out its food delivery service, Keeta, in Saudi Arabia, where it quickly became a dominant delivery platform in most major cities.

美团向来以无所顾忌的运营策略著称，曾连续数年亏损运营，通过向消费者提供大幅折扣、压低价格击败竞争对手。2024年美团在沙特阿拉伯推出外卖服务Keeta时，也沿用了这一策略，并迅速成为沙特多数主要城市的主要外卖平台。

Brazil is also one of the largest markets for the fast-fashion retailer Shein, which has built three warehouses near São Paulo.

巴西也是快时尚零售商希音的核心市场之一，该公司已在圣保罗周边建成三座仓库。

Shein was founded in China before moving its headquarters to Singapore in 2022. But last May, President Trump cut off a lifeline for companies like Shein and Temu when he closed a longstanding loophole that had allowed Chinese goods worth less than $800 to be mailed directly to shoppers in the United States without any tariffs.

希音始创于中国，2022年将总部迁至新加坡。但去年5月，特朗普总统封堵了一项长期存在的关税漏洞——此前，价值低于800美元的中国商品可直接邮寄至美国消费者手中，无需缴纳任何关税，特朗普这一举动切断了希音和Temu等企业的生命线。

U.S. lawmakers had also raised concerns about the supply chains and labor practices that underpin Shein’s and Temu’s business models.

此外，美国议员还对希音和Temu商业模式背后的供应链体系和劳工待遇问题提出了质疑。

Chinese electric car companies, some of the country’s fastest-growing start-ups, have been effectively locked out of the U.S. market after Washington imposed a 100 percent tariff. Last year, China’s BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world’s top seller of electric vehicles, but its vehicles are absent from the streets of New York and Detroit. Instead, BYD has targeted markets like Brazil and Thailand, where its lower-priced models sell for under $15,000.

电动汽车企业是中国发展最快的初创企业群体之一，但在美国对其加征100%关税后，这些企业实际上已被挡在美国市场门外。去年，中国比亚迪超越特斯拉成为全球销量冠军，但其车型却从未出现在纽约或底特律街头。比亚迪转而将巴西、泰国等市场作为主攻方向，其低配车型在当地售价低于1.5万美元。

For ByteDance, the split marked a full-circle moment. The company launched TikTok in 2016 after acquiring Musical.ly, a Chinese app that let users lip-sync and dance to create their own music videos. However, the founders of Musical.ly eschewed the Chinese market and its internet restrictions, instead targeting teenagers in the United States and Europe.

对字节跳动而言，此次分拆堪称一场轮回。2016年，字节跳动收购了中国应用Musical.ly，这款应用主打用户对口型唱歌和跳舞来创作自己的音乐视频，随后它推出了TikTok。而Musical.ly的创始团队当初刻意避开了中国市场及其互联网监管政策，将目标用户锁定为欧美地区的青少年。

TikTok has waged legal battles around the world as governments have grown alarmed by its ties to China and its wide influence, especially among young people. The app has been partly banned or blocked outright in at least 20 countries.

随着各国政府日益担忧TikTok的中国背景及其广泛的影响力——尤其是对青少年群体的影响，该应用在全球多地陷入法律诉讼，目前已有至少20个国家对其实施部分禁令或全面封杀。

Analysts said ByteDance’s arrangement to license TikTok’s technology in the United States presented a middle ground: neither a total ban nor a forced sale of the company itself.

分析人士表示，字节跳动通过技术授权方式保留TikTok美国业务的安排走出了一条中间道路：既未被全面封杀，企业本身也未被强制出售。

The deal “opens the door for more critical, strategic and advanced technologies to flow from China to the United States,” Mr. Xu said, citing potential opportunities for battery technology and rare-earth metals — segments dominated by Chinese companies.

徐凯文表示，这一交易“为中国更多关键、战略性的先进技术进入美国市场打开了大门”，并提及电池技术、稀土金属等中国企业占据主导地位的领域，或存在潜在机遇。

China’s top general, second only to Xi Jinping, the nation’s leader, in the military command, has been put under investigation and accused of “grave violations of discipline and the law,” the Ministry of National Defense said on Saturday, the most stunning escalation yet in Mr. Xi’s purge of the People’s Liberation Army elite.

中国国防部周六表示，中国军队中地位仅次于国家领导人习近平的最高将领已被立案调查，并被指控存在“严重违纪违法”行为。这是习近平清洗解放军高层行动中迄今为止最令人震惊的一次升级。

The general, Zhang Youxia, is a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the Communist Party body that controls China’s armed forces. Another member of the commission, Gen. Liu Zhenli, who leads the military’s Joint Staff Department, is also under investigation, the Defense Ministry said. Its announcement did not say what either general was alleged to have done wrong.

这名将领是中央军委副主席张又侠，中央军委是控制中国武装力量的最高领导机构。国防部还表示，军委另一名成员、负责领导联合参谋部的刘振立上将也正在接受调查。官方通报未具体说明两人涉嫌哪些不当行为。

General Zhang’s downfall — few if any Chinese officials placed publicly under investigation are later declared innocent — is the most drastic step so far in Mr. Xi’s yearslong campaign to root out what he has described as corruption and disloyalty in the military’s senior ranks. It is all the more astonishing because General Zhang seemed to be a confidant of Mr. Xi, who has known him for decades.

在习近平多年来清除军队高层其所谓腐败和不忠行为的运动中，张又侠的落马是迄今最激烈的一步（鲜有中国官员在被公开宣布接受调查后最终会被证明清白）。更令人震惊的是，张又侠似乎一直是习近平的亲信，两人相识已有数十年。

“This move is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese military and represents the total annihilation of the high command,” Christopher K. Johnson, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who follows Chinese elite politics, said of the investigation of General Zhang.

“这一举动在中国军事史上前所未有，等同于对最高统帅层的全面清洗，”长期关注中国高层政治的前美国中情局分析员克里斯托弗·K·约翰逊在谈到对张又侠的调查时说。

With the two generals effectively out, the Central Military Commission has just two members left: its chairman, Mr. Xi, and General Zhang Shengmin, who has overseen Mr. Xi’s military purges. Mr. Xi has now removed all but one of the six generals he appointed to the commission in 2022.

随着这两名将领实际上被撤职，中央军委只剩下两名成员：主席习近平以及负责监督习近平军队清洗行动的张升民将军。习近平在2022年任命的六名中央军委成员如今只剩下一名。

Mr. Johnson, the president of China Strategies Group, a consulting firm, said Mr. Xi seemed to have concluded that problems in the military ran so deep that he could not trust the top command to cure itself and must look to a new cohort of rising officers.

现任中国战略集团(China Strategies Group)总裁的约翰逊表示，习近平似乎已经认定，军队中的问题根深蒂固，无法指望最高指挥层自我纠错，只能依靠正在崛起的新一代军官。

He appears to have “decided he must cut very deep generationally to find a group not tainted,” Mr. Johnson said. “The purging of even a childhood friend in Zhang Youxia shows there now are no limits to Xi’s anti-graft zeal.”

他说，习近平显然已经“决定必须彻底清除目前这一代，才能找到一批没有被污染的人”。“就连张又侠这样的发小也被清洗，说明习近平的反腐决心如今已没有任何界限。”

Rumors that the general might be in trouble had spread for days, since official news reports left clues that he and General Liu had been absent from a Communist Party meeting. But General Zhang has disappeared from view before, and a senior official is usually out of sight for months before the party confirms that he is under investigation.

张又侠可能出事的传言已流传数日，因为官方新闻报道中留下了线索：他和刘振立缺席了一次中共会议。不过，张又侠过去也曾一度从公众视野中消失，而一名高级官员通常会“隐身”数月后，党内才会正式确认其正在接受调查。

The speed with which General Zhang’s ouster was announced seemed intended to staunch the potential damage for Mr. Xi, said Su Tzu-yun, an expert on the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, a body funded by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

台湾国防部资助的智库——台北国防安全研究院的解放军问题专家苏紫云表示，迅速宣布张又侠落马似乎是为了遏制此事可能对习近平造成的政治冲击。

“This could be a big blow to morale inside the P.L.A.,” Mr. Su said in an interview, referring to the removal of a seemingly invulnerable commander.

“这个可能是对PLA（译注：即解放军）的士气会是很大的打击，”苏紫云在接受采访时说，他指的是这样一位看似不可动摇的指挥官被撤职。

General Zhang and General Liu were also the P.L.A.’s two top commanders for practical operational tasks, and their removal will leave a gap in experience, said Shanshan Mei, a political scientist at RAND, a research organization, who studies China’s armed forces.

研究机构兰德公司的政治学者、研究中国军队的梅姗姗指出，张又侠和刘振立也是解放军在实际作战事务上的两名最高指挥官，他们被撤职将造成经验上的真空。

“There’s no one right now at the highest level who has operational experience or who is in charge of training and exercises,” Ms. Mei said. “This is going to cut very deep, and there’s more to come, possibly.”

梅姗姗说，“目前在最高层级没有人具备实战经验，也没有人负责训练和演习。这将造成非常严重的打击，而且这可能还只是开始。”

General Zhang, 75, had seemed to be cordoned off from Mr. Xi’s widening purges. The two men’s fathers, both veterans of Mao Zedong’s revolutionary wars, were personally acquainted, and Mr. Xi had kept General Zhang in office beyond the customary retirement age of about 70.

现年75岁的张又侠此前似乎一直被排除在习近平不断扩大的清洗行动之外。两人的父亲都是毛泽东革命战争时期的老兵，彼此相识，习近平还打破惯例让张又侠在约70岁的退休年龄后继续留任。

But Mr. Xi’s worries about the trustworthiness of his commanders seemed to finally outweigh whatever attachment he felt to the general, Mr. Su said. “I think this reflects Xi Jinping’s personal sense of insecurity, and that’s a major factor in his purges of the military,” he said.

但苏紫云认为，习近平对指挥官忠诚度的担忧最终还是压倒了他对张又侠的个人情感。“我认为这反映了习近平个人强烈的不安全感，而这正是他清洗军队的一个重要因素。”

Since 2023, waves of top commanders, officers and executives for arms manufacturers have been removed from office and placed under investigation — or, in some cases, have disappeared from view without explanation.

自2023年以来，一波又一波的高级指挥官、军官以及军工企业高管被撤职并接受调查——有些人甚至在没有任何解释的情况下从公众视野中消失。

The first purges in that wave focused on China’s Rocket Force, which operates most of its nuclear missiles and many of its conventional ones. Ensuing investigations took down admirals, regional military commanders and members of the Central Military Commission.

这一轮清洗最初集中在火箭军身上，该部队掌管中国大多数核导弹和许多常规导弹。随后，调查又波及海军上将、战区司令以及中央军委成员。

Many of the targeted officers had been promoted by Mr. Xi since he took power in 2012, vowing to cleanse the armed forces of endemic graft. But after a decade in charge, he seemed to have concluded that some of his own handpicked protégés had been infected by the military’s corruption, which historically has often involved taking bribes for contracts or promotions.

许多被针对的军官都是习近平自2012年上台后亲自提拔的，当时他誓言要清除军队中根深蒂固的腐败问题。但执政十年之后，他似乎已认定，自己亲手挑选的一些亲信也染上了军中腐败的痼疾——这种腐败在历史上往往表现为通过合同或晋升收受贿赂。

The investigations’ toll on the military was visible at a meeting last year of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, a council of top officials. Of the 44 uniformed officers appointed to the committee in 2022, 29 — roughly two-thirds — had been purged or were missing, according to calculations made by Neil Thomas, a researcher on Chinese politics at the Asia Society.

调查对军队造成的冲击在去年中共召开的一次中央委员会会议上已清晰可见。根据亚洲协会研究中国政治的学者尼尔·托马斯的统计，2022年进入该委员会的44名现役军官中，有29人——约三分之二——已被清洗或从公众视野中消失。

Mr. Xi seems to have calculated that in the longer term, his shake-up of the military will make it less corrupt, more loyal and more effective in pursuing his goals, like putting pressure on Taiwan, the island democracy that rejects China’s claims of sovereignty.

分析人士认为，习近平似乎有自己的盘算，认为从长远来看，这场对军队的整顿将使其更加廉洁、更忠诚，也更有能力执行他的目标，比如对拒绝中国主权主张的民主岛屿台湾施加压力。

But for now, and potentially for years, the disruptions caused by the purges could leave Mr. Xi less confident that his commanders are ready for combat, analysts have said.

但在当前以及未来可能数年内，这些清洗行动造成的动荡反而可能让习近平对其指挥官是否做好了作战准备更加缺乏信心。

“It’s a dilemma,” said Mr. Su, the Taiwan-based analyst. “He wants to first get rid of these so-called corrupt people, but for the P.L.A., if you clear out these high-level officers, that means a whole lot of experience is gone.”

苏紫云说，“（这）是一个两难，因为他要先把这些所谓贪腐的人清除掉，但是对解放军来讲，你把这些高层的人清理掉了，那么等于说整个经验就没有了。”

General Zhang was among the few Chinese commanders with extensive experience in battle. The son of a general, he gained prominence as a frontline officer during China’s last war, a border conflict with Vietnam that began in 1979 and lasted for years. He rose to become head of the General Armaments Department, which is in charge of procuring weapons, and Mr. Xi promoted him to the Central Military Commission in 2017.

张又侠是少数拥有丰富实战经验的中国将领之一。作为一名将军之子，他在中国最近一次战争——1979年爆发并持续多年的中越边境冲突中担任前线军官并崭露头角。他后来升任总装备部部长，负责武器采购事务，并于2017年被习近平提拔进入中央军委。

“For Zhang Youxia, having combat experience — and being one of the only left who has any — has to add to his luster, at least to Xi Jinping,” John Culver, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst specializing in the Chinese military, said in an interview before General Zhang’s dismissal was announced.

“对张又侠来说，拥有作战经验——而且几乎是仅存的几位拥有这种经验的人之一——至少在习近平眼中是一个加分项，”在张又侠被宣布接受调查前，曾长期研究中国军队的前中情局分析员约翰·卡尔弗在一次采访中说。

But analysts speculated that General Zhang’s time in the General Armaments Department — which, because it controls arms contracts, became known as a honey pot of corruption — may have planted the seeds of his downfall. Other generals who rose through that department have also been purged, including Li Shangfu, a former defense minister.

但分析人士推测，张又侠在总装备部任职的经历可能早已埋下他落马的伏笔，该部门由于掌控军火合同而被视为腐败的温床。其他同样出身总装备部的将领也已被清洗，包括前国防部长李尚福。

Mr. Xi may need years or more to nurture a new crop of — presumably — trustworthy officers, and he must also fill the depleted ranks of the Central Military Committee.

习近平或许需要多年时间来培育一批新的、被认为值得信任的军官，同时还必须填补中央军委人员的空缺。

“To rebuild these chains of command may take him five years or longer,” Mr. Su said. “The chances of an attack on Taiwan in the short term have been lowered.”

苏紫云说，“未来他要重建这些指挥链条可能还要五年以上，那短期内说要打台湾的可能性就更低一些了。”

The last Nazis on Greenland were captured in October 1944, when American soldiers raided a hidden German weather station on the island’s desolate west coast and took dozens of prisoners. Within a year, Germany would be defeated and World War II would be over.

格陵兰岛上最后一批纳粹分子于1944 年10月被抓获——当时美军突袭了该岛荒凉西海岸一处隐秘的德国气象站，俘获数十名战俘。不到一年后，德国战败，第二次世界大战宣告结束。

But 80 years of both tension and cooperation between Denmark and the United States over Greenland was just beginning — culminating in President Trump’s current obsession with acquiring the Arctic island.

但彼时，美国和丹麦围绕格陵兰岛长达80年的对峙与合作才刚刚拉开序幕，最终演变为特朗普总统当前对这座北极岛屿的执着追求。

While the story begins with World War II, it was shaped by the Cold War that followed, in which the United States transformed barren Greenland into a major military asset, populating it with air bases, towering radar sites and even a never-completed underground bunker complex meant to house nuclear missiles.

这段渊源虽始于二战，却在后续的冷战中被彻底塑造：美国将荒无人烟的格陵兰岛打造成重要的军事资产，在岛上修建空军基地、高耸的雷达站，甚至还有一座从未完工的地下掩体综合体，原本计划用于部署核导弹。

It was all possible under an agreement with Denmark that granted the United States nearly unlimited military freedom on the island, one that remains in force today.

这一切的实现皆基于美丹两国达成的一项协议，赋予美国在格陵兰岛近乎不受限制的军事行动自由，且至今依然有效。

“We did it before, we can do it again,” said Daniel Fried, a former senior State Department official who worked on Soviet issues in the 1980s.

“我们当年能做到，如今依然可以，”丹尼尔·弗里德说，他曾是美国国务院高级官员，上世纪80年代负责处理对苏相关事务。

Whether Mr. Trump understands this history has been a mystery as European leaders try to convince him to drop his insistence on owning the island. Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that a “framework” for a deal had been reached, but the details remained murky.

欧洲各国领导人正竭力劝说特朗普放弃夺岛的执念，而特朗普是否了解这段历史始终是个谜。他于周三称，双方已就相关协议达成“框架”，但具体细节仍含糊不清。

In an era before military air power, before Mr. Trump was even born, American military planners gave Greenland little thought. But when Germany invaded and occupied Denmark in 1940, they realized that the island, then a Danish colony sparsely populated by mainly Inuit people, was vulnerable to Nazi control.

在空军时代到来之前，也就是特朗普还没出生的时候，格陵兰岛在美国军事规划者眼中无足轻重。但1940年德国入侵并占领丹麦后，他们意识到，这座当时由丹麦殖民、主要由因纽特人散居的岛屿极易落入纳粹掌控。

With airfields perilously close to America’s east coast, important mineral reserves and an ideal location to track weather that shaped battle conditions in Europe, Greenland’s defense was considered essential to the United States. It was an idea that would persist for decades before fading briefly after the Cold War and returning with a vengeance in the Trump era.

格陵兰岛的机场距美国东海岸近在咫尺，岛上蕴藏着重要矿产资源，更是监测影响欧洲战场天气的理想地点，因此其防御被视为美国的核心要务。这一理念延续数十年，冷战结束后曾短暂淡化，却在特朗普时代卷土重来。

Denmark’s exiled king had welcomed the American force and approved a written agreement granting the broad military latitude on the island, as long as a threat existed, without giving up any Danish sovereignty. With Germany vanquished and the war over, however, his country was ready to bid the Americans farewell. “Danish public opinion was expecting a return to full control of Greenland,” explained a study of the matter by the Danish Institute of Public Affairs.

彼时流亡的丹麦国王对美军的进驻表示欢迎，还批准了一份书面协议：只要威胁尚存，美国可在格陵兰岛拥有广泛的军事行动权，但丹麦不会放弃对该岛的主权。然而，随着德国战败，战争结束，丹麦已准备好让美军撤离。丹麦公共事务研究所的相关研究指出：“丹麦公众舆论期待重新全面掌控格陵兰岛。”

Washington had other ideas. The advent of long-range bombers had created a new sense of vulnerability just as the Soviet Union was emerging as a new threat to the United States. Greenland happened to lie along the most direct flight path to the Eastern United States from Russia.

但美国另有打算。远程轰炸机的问世让美国产生了新的安全危机感，此时苏联正逐渐成为美国的新威胁。格陵兰岛恰好位于俄罗斯飞往美国东海岸最直接的航线上。

“Greenland’s 800,000 square miles make it the world’s largest island and stationary aircraft carrier,” Time magazine wrote in January 1947. It “would be invaluable, in either conventional or push-button war, as an advance radar outpost,” and a forward position for future rocket-launching sites.

1947年1月，《时代》周刊文章写道：“格陵兰岛面积达80万平方英里，是世界第一大岛，一艘不移动的航空母舰。”无论是常规战争还是核战争，它都是“价值无可估量的远程雷达前哨站”，也是未来火箭发射基地的前沿阵地。

The Americans had no intention of leaving.

美国人根本无意撤离。

The bad news was delivered in December 1946 by the U.S. secretary of state, James F. Byrnes. During a meeting at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, Mr. Byrnes explained to his Danish counterpart, Gustav Rasmussen, that Greenland had become “vital to the defense of the United States.”

1946年12月，美国国务卿詹姆斯·伯恩斯将这个坏消息告知了丹麦。在纽约华尔道夫阿斯托里亚酒店的一次会面中，伯恩斯向丹麦外交大臣古斯塔夫·拉斯穆森表示，格陵兰岛已成为“美国国防的关键所在”。

While the American military’s presence could be extended, Mr. Byrnes said, he had a better idea: Denmark should simply sell Greenland to America.

伯恩斯称，美军的驻留期限本可延长，但他有一个更好的提议：丹麦干脆将格陵兰岛卖给美国。

The idea “seemed to come as a shock” to Mr. Rasmussen, who accurately predicted that his government would reject the idea, according to another State Department memo. But unlike the current blowup, the matter was handled “quietly” by both sides, noted Heather Conley, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who specializes in the Arctic.

美国国务院的另一份备忘录显示，这一提议让拉斯穆森“很震惊”，他准确预判到本国政府会拒绝这一要求。美国企业研究所非常驻高级研究员、北极问题专家希瑟·康利指出，与如今的这场风波不同，当时美丹双方均对该问题采取了“低调”的方式。

The Truman administration did not push, partly for fear that Moscow would claim that the United States had stolen land from a European ally. As the Soviet threat grew more vivid in Europe, Denmark became more willing to let American troops stay in Greenland.

杜鲁门政府并未执意施压，部分原因是担心莫斯科指责美国从欧洲盟友手中强占土地。随着苏联在欧洲的威胁日益凸显，丹麦也愈发愿意让美军继续留驻格陵兰岛。

In 1951, the United States and Denmark reached an agreement “uniting their efforts for collective defense” under the auspices of the newly formed North Atlantic Treaty Organization. While stressing Denmark’s continued sovereignty over the island, the agreement granted the United States broad freedom to “construct, install, maintain and operate facilities and equipment” and to “station and house personnel,” along with other rights related to military activity. That included deepening harbors and even maintaining postal facilities.

1951年，在新成立的北大西洋公约组织的支持下，美丹两国达成协议，宣布“联合努力开展集体防御行动”。该协议一方面强调丹麦对格陵兰岛的主权依旧，另一方面赋予美国广泛权利，可在岛上“修建、安装、维护和运营各类设施与装备”、“驻军并安置人员”，以及行使与军事活动相关的其他权利，其中甚至包括加深港口、运营邮政设施等。

The agreement did not include an expiration date, and Denmark has never asserted one.

这份协议未设定期限，丹麦也从未主张过为其设定期限。

One of the agreement’s few limitations was to delineate specific “defense areas” within which the United States could operate.

协议仅设置了为数不多的限制，其中一项是划定美国可开展军事行动的特定“防御区域”。

With the deal in hand, and freshly alarmed by a Soviet-backed communist offensive in Korea, the U.S. military quickly went to work. In a secret crash project, military engineers working around the clock in 24-hour Arctic daylight built a major air base at Thule in northwest Greenland. Manned by thousands of American personnel, the base’s 10,000-foot runway would serve as a launching point for strategic bombers and spy planes.

这份协议敲定后，恰逢苏联支持的共产主义势力在朝鲜发起进攻，美国再次陷入安全恐慌，美军随即迅速展开行动。1951年，在北极昼夜24小时日照的环境下，军事工程师们开启了一项紧急秘密工程，夜以继日地在格陵兰岛西北部的图勒地区修建了一座大型空军基地。这座基地驻扎着数以千计的美军人员，长约三公里的跑道成为战略轰炸机和侦察机的起飞基地。

More than a dozen military bases and radar and weather monitoring stations eventually opened across the island. 

最终，美军在格陵兰岛各地建成了十余座军事基地，以及多个雷达和气象监测站。

At the peak of the United States’ military presence in Greenland during the Cold War, some 10,000 U.S. personnel were stationed on the island. But after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the cost of a large footprint on an Arctic island made little sense.

冷战时期，美军在格陵兰岛的军事存在达到顶峰，约有1万名美军人员驻扎于此。但1991年苏联解体后，在这片北极岛屿维持大规模军事存在变得得不偿失。

Most U.S. installations on Greenland were closed over the next decade, with U.S. activity consolidating at Thule, whose name was changed in 2023 to Pituffik in an acknowledgment of a former Inuit settlement there. It is now a U.S. Space Force base, staffed by about 150 people who manage early warning radar and satellite communications.

在随后的十年里，美军关闭了在格陵兰岛的大部分设施，所有军事活动整合至图勒基地——为纪念当地一处昔日的因纽特人定居点，该基地于2023年更名为皮图菲克基地。如今，这里成为美国太空军的基地，约有150名人员驻守，负责早期预警雷达和卫星通信系统的运转。

Mr. Trump argues that Greenland is once again vital to American security, and many national security experts agree. They point to growing Arctic competition with Russia and China over natural resources and shipping lanes as melting ice reshapes the region. Mr. Trump also says that Greenland is crucial to the ambitious “Golden Dome” missile defense system he hopes to build in the coming years.

特朗普称，格陵兰岛再次成为美国国家安全的核心所在，许多国家安全专家也对此表示认同。他们指出，随着冰川融化重塑北极地区格局，美国与俄、中两国在北极的资源和航道争夺日趋激烈。特朗普还表示，格陵兰岛对其计划在未来数年打造的宏大的“金穹”导弹防御系统而言，具有至关重要的意义。

When Mark Carney became Canada’s prime minister last year, he was known mostly as a technocratic central banker who had gone on to success in the world of global finance.

去年成为加拿大总理时，马克·卡尼在人们心目中主要是央行行长这样的技术官僚，后来在全球金融界也取得了成功。

But when Mr. Carney returned this week from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he was suddenly a global political star. The normally reserved audience at the annual gathering of billionaires, investors, chief executives and politicians rose in an exceptional standing ovation at the end of Mr. Carney’s rousing, 30-minute speech on Tuesday.

但本周从瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛返回时，卡尼突然成为全球政治明星。在这个亿万富翁、投资者、首席执行官和政治家们的年度聚会上，向来矜持的听众在周二卡尼激昂的30分钟演讲结束后，罕见地全体起立鼓掌。

Mr. Carney was praised for his candid assessment of what he called an irrevocable “rupture” to the global order caused by President Trump, and for urging other middle powers to join Canada in charting a distinct path away from the world’s superpowers.

卡尼坦率地评估了特朗普总统造成的全球秩序不可逆转的“决裂”，并敦促其他中等强国加入加拿大，共同开辟一条独立于超级大国的道路，得到了广泛赞誉。

And in sharp contrast to other world leaders who flatter Mr. Trump or keep their heads down for fear of provoking him, Mr. Carney speaks bluntly.

卡尼说话非常直白，这与其他对特朗普阿谀奉承、或因害怕激怒他而保持低调的世界领导人形成了鲜明对比。

On Thursday, less than a day after returning from Davos, Mr. Carney set out Canada’s direction in a speech in Quebec City, saying that his country “must be a beacon — an example to a world at sea.”

周四，卡尼从达沃斯回国后不到一天，就在魁北克市发表演讲，阐述加拿大的方向，他说他的国家“必须成为一座灯塔——为漂泊不定的世界树立榜样”。

“In a time of rising walls and thickening borders, we demonstrate how a country can be both open and secure, welcoming and strong, principled and powerful,” he said, speaking where his cabinet was meeting, in a fortress built by the British more than 200 years ago to fend off American invaders. “There are literally billions of people who aspire to what we have built. A pluralistic society that works. A public square that’s loud, diverse and free. An economy that delivers broadly shared prosperity. A democracy that chooses to protect the most vulnerable against the powerful.”

“在高墙林立、边界日益封闭的时代，我们展示了一个国家如何同时做到开放与安全、包容与强大、有原则且有力量，”他在英军两百多年前修建的要塞里说道——他的内阁正在这座最初为抵御美国入侵者而建的堡垒开会。“世界上有数十亿人向往我们所建立的一切：一个运转良好的多元社会；一个喧闹、多样且自由的公共空间；一个广泛分享繁荣的经济；一个选择保护最弱势群体免受强者侵害的民主制度。”

He continued: “Canada can’t solve all the world’s problems. But we can show that another way is possible. That the arc of history isn’t destined to be warped towards authoritarianism and exclusion. It can still bend towards progress and justice.”

他继续说道：“加拿大无法解决世界上所有的问题。但我们可以证明另一种道路是可能的。历史的弧线并非注定要扭曲成威权主义和排外主义。它仍然可以弯向进步与正义。”

Mr. Carney’s speech on Thursday, like the one in Davos on Tuesday, did not mention Mr. Trump by name. But the reference was clear.

卡尼周四的演讲——如同他周二在达沃斯的演讲一样——没有直接点名特朗普，但指向性非常明显。

The speech dealt largely with domestic issues, including a recent rekindling of support for separatism in Quebec, and appeared to be an effort to both reassure and energize Canadians who have been left angered, exhausted and fearful by Mr. Trump’s year in office.

这次演讲主要涉及国内议题，包括魁北克最近重新燃起的分离主义情绪，似乎既是为了安抚、也是为了激励那些因特朗普执政一年而感到愤怒、疲惫和恐惧的加拿大人。

“Every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry,” Mr. Carney said on Tuesday in Switzerland. “That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.”

“我们每天都被提醒，我们生活在一个大国竞争激烈的时代，”卡尼周二在瑞士说道，“基于规则的秩序正在消退。强者可以为所欲为，弱者只能承受他们必须承受的。”

Mr. Carney said that for their survival, nations should no longer “go along to get along” with Mr. Trump.

卡尼表示，为了自身生存，各国不应再对特朗普“逆来顺受以求平安”。

“The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

“中等强国必须联合行动，因为我们要么上桌吃饭，要么摆上桌被人吃。”

While Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump have a generally cordial relationship, the two speeches underscored the Canadian leader’s plan to further distance his country from Mr. Trump’s version of the United States, the largest market for Canada’s export-dependent economy and a nation with which it shares the world’s longest land border.

虽然与特朗普总体上保持着友好的关系，卡尼的这两场演讲凸显了这位加拿大领导人计划进一步将本国与特朗普版本的美国拉开距离——美国是加拿大出口依赖型经济的最大市场，两国共享世界上最长的陆地边界。

Although Canada is in a free trade agreement with the United States and Mexico, Mr. Trump has imposed a variety of tariffs that threaten key Canadian industries including autos, steel and aluminum.

尽管加拿大与美国和墨西哥签订了自由贸易协定，但特朗普已对包括汽车、钢铁和铝在内的加拿大关键产业施加了各种关税威胁。

Regardless of how Mr. Trump’s desire to take over Greenland, another neighbor of Canada’s, is resolved, the issue has stirred concern and anger among Canadians about his threats to make Canada the 51st state. Shortly before Mr. Carney spoke in Davos, Mr. Trump posted on social media an A.I. photograph that included a United States flag superimposed over a map of Canada.

不管特朗普想接管加拿大的另一个邻居格陵兰岛的愿望最终是何结果，这一问题已在加拿大人中激起担忧和愤怒——特朗普还曾威胁要把加拿大变成美国的第51个州。就在卡尼的达沃斯演讲前不久，特朗普在社交媒体上发布了一张AI生成的照片，图中美国国旗叠加在加拿大地图上。

In a rambling speech in Davos on Wednesday, Mr. Trump struck back at Mr. Carney’s words from the day before.

周三，特朗普在达沃斯发表了一场漫无边际的演讲，对卡尼前一天的话进行了反击。

“Canada gets a lot of freebies from us. By the way, they should be grateful also, but they’re not,” Mr. Trump said. “I watched your prime minister yesterday. He wasn’t so grateful — they should be grateful to us, Canada. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”

“加拿大从我们这里拿了很多免费的好处。顺便说一句，他们也应该感恩，但他们没有，”特朗普说。“我昨天看了你们总理的讲话。他一点也不感恩——他们应该感激我们，加拿大。加拿大是因为有了美国才存在的。记住这一点，马克，等下次你再发表言论的时候。”

The two men did not meet in Davos. On Thursday, Mr. Carney returned rhetorical fire.

两人在达沃斯并未会面。周四，卡尼以言辞回击。

“Canada and the United States have built a remarkable partnership in the economy, in security and in rich cultural exchange,” Mr. Carney said. “But Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”

“加拿大和美国在经济、安全以及丰富的文化交流方面建立了非凡的伙伴关系，”卡尼说。“但加拿大并不是因为有了美国才存在。加拿大之所以繁荣，是因为我们是加拿大人。”

TikTok said on Thursday that its Chinese owner, ByteDance, had struck a deal with a group of non-Chinese investors to create a new U.S. TikTok, concluding a six-year legal saga that saw the app banned by Congress, ensnared in politicking between global superpowers and forced into a 14-hour blackout in the United States.

TikTok周四表示，其中国母公司字节跳动已与一群非中国投资者达成协议，创建一个新的美国TikTok，从而结束一场长达六年的法律风波。该应用曾被国会禁止，在全球超级大国间的政治博弈中陷入困境，并在美国被迫经历持续14小时的下线。

Investors including the software giant Oracle; MGX, an Emirati investment firm; and Silver Lake, another investment firm will own more than 80 percent of the new venture. That list also includes the personal investment entity for Michael Dell, the tech billionaire behind Dell Technologies, and other firms, TikTok said. Adam Presser, TikTok’s former operations head, will be the chief executive for the U.S. TikTok.

投资者包括软件巨头甲骨文、阿联酋投资公司MGX，以及另一家投资公司银湖，它们将拥有新公司超过80%的股份。TikTok表示，投资者名单里还有戴尔科技创始人、科技亿万富翁迈克尔·戴尔的个人投资实体以及其他公司。前TikTok运营负责人亚当·普雷瑟将担任美国TikTok的首席执行官。

The deal is intended to loosen TikTok’s ties to China and address national security concerns that Beijing could use the app to surveil or manipulate its more than 200 million users in the United States.The changes enable “our U.S. users to continue to discover, create, and thrive as part of TikTok’s vibrant global community and experience,” said Shou Chew, TikTok’s chief executive, in an internal memo that called the move “great news.”

这项协议旨在切断TikTok与中国之间的联系，解决国家安全担忧，即北京可能利用该应用监视或操控其在美国超过2亿的用户。TikTok首席执行官周受资在一份内部备忘录中称这是“好消息”，表示这些变化将使“我们的美国用户继续作为TikTok充满活力的全球社区一部分，发现、创作并蓬勃发展”。

The agreement, which was hammered out over more than a year, resolves existential questions about TikTok’s future. The app — with its unceasing feed of lip syncs, political endorsements, conspiracy theories and skin care tutorials — would have had to leave the American market if it did not separate from ByteDance.

这项协议历时一年多敲定，解决了TikTok未来的生存问题。如果不与字节跳动分离，这款充斥着对口型唱歌、政治背书、阴谋论和护肤教程短视频的应用将被迫退出美国市场。

It was also the end of a legal odyssey. Since 2019, universities, several branches of the U.S. military, the vast majority of the House of Representatives and both President Trump and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. have tried to ban or block TikTok, with unanimous support from the Supreme Court. Influencers, mobilized by the app, lobbied politicians and mounted protests to save their feeds and follower counts. TikTok became embroiled in a trade war between the United States and China, as the nations engaged in a heated contest over technology and industrial supremacy.

这也是一段漫长法律纠纷的终点。自2019年以来，多所大学、美国军方多个部门、众议院绝大多数议员，以及特朗普总统和拜登总统都试图禁止或封锁TikTok，并获得最高法院一致支持。在该应用的动员下，网红们游说政客、发起抗议，以求保住他们的视频流和粉丝。随着中美两国在技术和产业霸权上展开激烈竞争，TikTok也卷入了中美贸易战。

But the drama dragged on for so long and with so little consequence that even some who once fought to save the app had stopped worrying about it.

但这场大戏拖得太久，且无实质进展，以至于一些曾经为拯救应用而努力的人都已不再担心。

Naomi Hearts, a 28-year-old content creator in Los Angeles who twice traveled to Washington as part of TikTok’s lobbying efforts, said she felt “detached” from the platform after years of upheaval.

28岁的洛杉矶内容创作者娜奥米·哈茨曾两次作为TikTok游说团队前往华盛顿。她表示，经过多年的动荡后，她对这个平台感到“疏离”。

“I feel like it’s going to be another day,” Ms. Hearts said in an interview this week, anticipating the deal’s completion.

“我感觉这就是普普通通的一天，”早已预料该协议会达成的哈茨在本周接受采访时说。

It was unclear how much, if anything, the deal would change for TikTok’s users in the United States. Since the outlines of the deal were released months ago, users have raised concerns about whether the new owners will overhaul the algorithm that personalizes their feeds. And experts have cautioned that the arrangement might fail to address the national security concerns that motivated the deal in the first place.

目前尚不清楚这项协议对美国TikTok用户会有多大实际改变。自几个月前协议大纲公布以来，用户们担心新的所有人是否会大改个性化推荐算法。专家也警告，这种安排可能无法彻底解决最初推动协议的国家安全担忧。

The driving force behind the deal is a federal law, passed in 2024 and upheld by the Supreme Court, that would have banned the app if it did not separate itself from ByteDance by early 2025. The app even went dark for 14 hours as the law’s deadline approached, sending some users into a tailspin. But Mr. Trump formally delayed the enforcement of the law several times after he took office again, as he pushed the company to reach a deal for new ownership.

推动协议的核心是2024年通过并获最高法院支持的联邦法律，该法规定若字节跳动不在2025年初分离TikTok，美国将禁止该应用。随着法律截止日期临近，该应用甚至在美国下线14小时，让一些用户陷入恐慌。但特朗普重新上任后多次正式推迟法律执行，推动公司达成新的所有权协议。

Under the new arrangement, Oracle, MGX and Silver Lake will each own 15 percent of TikTok’s U.S. operations. ByteDance will own just under 20 percent.

根据新安排，甲骨文、MGX和银湖各持有TikTok美国业务15%的股份。字节跳动仅持有不到20%。

The other investors include Mr. Dell’s office and a long list of investment firms, including affiliates of General Atlantic and Susquehanna, both of which had previously invested in ByteDance.

其他投资者包括戴尔的办公室，以及一长串投资公司，包括泛大西洋和海纳的附属机构，这些机构此前都投资过字节跳动。

The majority of the seven-member board for the new U.S. TikTok will be American, according to a December memo to TikTok employees. Mr. Chew has a seat on the board.

根据12月发给TikTok员工的备忘录，新美国TikTok的七人董事会多数为美国人。周受资也是董事会成员之一。

The new venture will moderate content in TikTok’s feed, deciding which posts to leave up and which to take down. It’s unclear what the value of the American version of TikTok will be. Vice President JD Vance said in September that a U.S. TikTok company would be valued at $14 billion. ByteDance, by contrast, has been valued at $480 billion in the private markets.

新公司将负责TikTok视频流的內容审核，决定哪些帖子保留、哪些删除。目前尚不清楚美国版TikTok的价值。副总统万斯9月表示，美国TikTok公司估值140亿美元。相比之下，字节跳动在私募市场估值达4800亿美元。

Mr. Trump signed an executive order in September that gave formal approval to the arrangement, a move required under the 2024 law.

特朗普9月签署行政令，正式批准这项安排，这是2024年法律要求的步骤。

The Chinese government has not publicly commented on TikTok’s announcement. For years, Beijing had been a major obstacle to finalizing a deal. When the United States first pushed to force a sale of TikTok, China amended its export control list to include technologies like algorithms and source codes, giving it the power to weigh in on any deal involving the app.

中国政府尚未公开评论TikTok的声明。多年来，北京一直是最终敲定协议的主要障碍。当美国首次推动强制出售TikTok时，中国修改出口管制清单，将算法和源代码等技术纳入其中，赋予其对任何涉及该应用的交易的否决权。

Last year, Trump officials said they had won Beijing’s support for a deal. China’s statements were more vague.

去年，特朗普政府官员表示已赢得北京对协议的支持。中国方面的表态则较为模糊。

Several of the new investors have ties to Mr. Trump, raising concerns for some TikTok users that the app could start showing more content aligned with the president’s views or the positions of the U.S. government.

几位新投资者与特朗普有联系，这让一些TikTok用户担忧应用可能开始推送更多符合总统观点或美国政府立场的內容。

Larry Ellison, Oracle’s billionaire founder, has a close relationship with Mr. Trump, and lobbied the president directly on behalf of his son David Ellison’s bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. MGX has done business with the Trump family’s crypto firm, World Liberty Financial.

甲骨文亿万富翁创始人拉里·埃里森与特朗普关系密切，曾直接游说总统支持其子戴维·埃里森收购华纳兄弟探索公司。MGX与特朗普家族的加密货币公司World Liberty Financial有业务往来。

Anupam Chander, a law and technology professor at Georgetown University, said that the deal allows for “more theoretical room for one side’s views to get a greater airing.”

乔治城大学法律与技术教授阿努帕姆·钱德表示，这项协议“理论上可以为一方观点获得更大曝光”。

“My worry all along is that we may have traded fears of foreign propaganda for the reality of domestic propaganda,” he added.

“我一直担心，我们可能用对外国宣传的恐惧，换来了国内宣传的现实，”他补充道。

There are also lingering concerns that ByteDance will still influence the app’s content. In addition to its stake, ByteDance will keep TikTok’s coveted algorithm, which it will license to the new U.S. entity.

仍有人担忧字节跳动还是可以影响应用内容。除了持股外，字节跳动将保留TikTok备受追捧的算法，并授权给新美国实体使用。

That arrangement may fall short of the 2024 law, which required the sale to end any “operational relationship” between ByteDance and TikTok in the United States, critics said.

批评者表示，这种安排可能不符合2024年法律，该法要求出售必须结束字节跳动与美国TikTok的任何“运营关系”。

“They may have saved TikTok,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the right-leaning Hudson Institute. “But the national security concerns are still going to continue.”

“他们可能救了TikTok，”右翼智库哈德逊研究所高级研究员迈克尔·索博利克说。“但国家安全担忧仍将持续。”

Thursday’s announcement is something of a mash up of two earlier proposals aimed at distancing TikTok from ByteDance.

周四的公告是两项早期提案的混合版，旨在让TikTok远离字节跳动。

The app’s troubles in the United States started almost at the same time as its stratospheric rise in popularity. It accelerated during the Covid pandemic, as the housebound masses turned to their phones to distract themselves with dance trends and memes.

几乎与其人气暴涨同一时期，TikTok在美国就有了麻烦。疫情期间，它加速流行，居家民众转向手机，通过舞蹈潮流和迷因分散注意力。

Soon after, Congress and the first Trump administration grew increasingly anxious that under Chinese law, ByteDance could be forced to provide personal information about Americans to Beijing’s military and intelligence apparatus.

不久后，国会和特朗普第一届政府越来越担心，根据中国法律，字节跳动可能被迫向北京军方和情报机构提供美国人的个人信息。

In 2020, Mr. Trump threatened to ban TikTok. He then unsuccessfully tried to force ByteDance to sell the app to a consortium that included Oracle and Walmart.

2020年，特朗普威胁禁止TikTok。随后他试图强制字节跳动将应用出售给包括甲骨文和沃尔玛的财团，但未成功。

TikTok spent years pushing an alternative to a sale. Under that proposal, which the company called Project Texas, Oracle would oversee the app’s American user data on servers in the United States. ByteDance would still produce the app’s code, but its work would be audited by Oracle.

TikTok多年来推动出售替代方案。公司称之为“得克萨斯计划”，由甲骨文在美国服务器上监管美国用户数据。字节跳动仍负责应用代码，但其工作要接受甲骨文审查。

Six years later, negotiators have settled on a consortium arrangement. Oracle is still a major player, and ByteDance is still involved, too.

六年后，谈判者最终敲定财团安排。甲骨文仍是主要参与者，字节跳动也继续涉入。

“We’ve gone round and round and ended up not too far from where we started,” said Lindsay Gorman, a former senior adviser in the Biden administration.

“我们绕来绕去，最终没离起点太远，”前拜登政府高级顾问林赛·戈尔曼说。

For days, President Trump insisted that he would accept nothing less than full ownership of Greenland. He dismissed concerns that his demands were risking the disintegration of the primary Western military alliance, deriding it as impotent anyway without the United States. And he threatened economic war on anyone who tried to stop him.

几日来，特朗普总统一直坚称，完全拥有格陵兰是最起码的条件。人们担心这一主张可能导致西方主要军事联盟的解体，对此他表达了不屑，嘲笑这个联盟如果没有美国本来也就是个空架子。他还威胁对任何试图阻止他的人发动经济战。

Then he took it all back.

然后他就收回了所有这些言论。

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump’s dizzying approach to foreign policy was on full display in the thin air of the Swiss Alps. Just hours after using a keynote speech in Davos, Switzerland, to insult European leaders and demand control of Greenland, he declared himself satisfied with a framework of a deal on the Danish territory that was so vague he could not say whether he would actually own the island.

周三，在瑞士阿尔卑斯山稀薄的空气中，特朗普充分展现了他那令人眩晕的外交风格。他在达沃斯世界经济论坛的主旨演讲中侮辱欧洲领导人并要求控制格陵兰岛，仅数小时后，他就宣布就这片丹麦领土达成了一个如此模糊的协议框架，以至于他无法明确自己是否真的会拥有该岛。

His threats of tariffs against Greenland’s defenders quickly vanished. After questioning the value of NATO, he declared that its leader, Mark Rutte — with whom he negotiated over Greenland — was “doing a fantastic job.”

他对格陵兰岛捍卫者施加关税的威胁迅速消失。在质疑北约价值后，他宣称北约领导人马克·吕特——与他就格陵兰岛进行谈判的人——“干得非常出色”。

“We’re getting everything we want,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with Fox Business from Davos on Thursday, before adding only a couple breaths later that the deal was still being negotiated.

“我们正在得到我们想要的一切，”特朗普周四在达沃斯接受福克斯商业频道采访时说，转眼他又补充说协议仍在谈判中。

The volatility in Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is a sign of just how emboldened he feels a year into his second term. He transformed a forum that epitomizes the Western establishment and the rules-based order it created into a stage for his unconstrained power to overturn the values it stands for, if he so chooses.

从特朗普在处理外交问题上的反复无常，可以看到他在第二任期一年后感到更加有恃无恐。他将这个象征西方建制派及其所创造的基于规则秩序的论坛转变为展示他不受约束的权力的舞台，如果他愿意，就可以颠覆其所代表的价值观。

He has long spoken of his unpredictability as one of his strengths, saying there is a method to the madness that helps him win deals in ways that the tired routines of traditional diplomacy do not. His allies point to Gaza, Venezuela, Iran, Panama and other places — and to trade concessions by nations around the globe — as evidence that his techniques pay dividends.

他长期以来将自己的不可预测性视为优势之一，称这是一种手法，能以老一套的传统外交无法做到的方式赢得交易。他的盟友说，加沙、委内瑞拉、伊朗、巴拿马等地——以及全球各国在贸易上的让步——可以证明他这一手法的成效。

But his whipsaw approach has also led Europeans to question the reliability of the United States and whether the world has moved on from post-World War II structures.

但他的反复无常也让欧洲人质疑美国的可靠性，以及世界是否已抛弃二战后的架构。

“Everybody’s trying to figure out, you know, what is it that — what does the president really want?” Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, said when asked what European leaders had wanted to know from her in Davos. “What’s his intentions with Greenland; what are his intentions with NATO?”

“每个人都在试图弄清楚的，就是总统真正想要什么？”在被问及欧洲领导人在达沃斯想从她那里了解什么时，阿拉斯加州共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基说。“他对格陵兰岛的意图是什么；他对北约的意图是什么？”

His sudden announcement on Wednesday that he would not follow through on a threat to impose tariffs on countries that opposed his plans to take over Greenland sent heads spinning. But it also felt familiar — he has canceled, suspended or reduced tariffs against dozens of countries, in many cases after winning concessions that were less than he had demanded.

他周三突然宣布，之前向反对其接管格陵兰岛计划的国家加征关税的威胁不会实施，这让人们大感困惑，但同时也觉得似曾相识——他已取消、暂停或降低对数十个国家的关税，而且很多时候他得到的让步并没有达到他的最低要求。

Mr. Trump’s aides often argue that his use of tariffs is an effective negotiating tactic. After his meeting with Mr. Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, on Wednesday night, Mr. Trump celebrated the framework on Greenland “as a good deal for everybody.”

特朗普的助手经常辩称，他使用关税是一种有效的谈判策略。周三晚与北约秘书长吕特会晤后，特朗普赞美格陵兰岛的框架“对每个人都是好交易”。

But his announcement also followed a pattern in which he claims victory in a negotiation before major details have been settled. When asked if the framework would include U.S. ownership of Greenland, Mr. Trump paused. “It’s a long-term deal,” he added, without providing specifics.

但他的宣布也遵循一种模式：在主要细节尚未敲定前就宣称谈判胜利。当被问及框架是否包括美国拥有格陵兰岛时，特朗普停顿了一下。“这是一个长期协议，”他补充说，没有提供具体细节。

A senior Danish official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said, “There have been no direct discussions between Denmark and the U.S. about the possibility of granting the U.S. sovereign parcels of land.”

一位因涉敏感外交而要求匿名的丹麦高级官员表示：“丹麦和美国之间尚未就授予美国主权土地的可能性进行直接讨论。”

With Mr. Trump riding high after the dramatic U.S. military raid this month that seized Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan leader, many Davos attendees knew there could be sparks from the president’s speech on Wednesday.

在本月美国军队戏剧性突袭抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗后，特朗普风头正劲，许多达沃斯与会者知道周三总统的演讲可能引起轰动。

The vague threats and insults that followed were still on many minds on Thursday.

特朗普随后发出的含糊威胁与侮辱性言论到了周四仍萦绕在许多人脑海。

Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, stepped onto the same stage where Mr. Trump had a day before questioned the value of NATO and had framed Greenland as a debt that needed to be paid to the United States.

在特朗普质疑北约价值并将格陵兰岛称为拖欠美国的债务一天后，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨登上了同一个舞台。

Mr. Merz used his speech to note how the United States was “radically reshaping its foreign and security policy.” He pointed to the dangers of the Trump administration’s might-makes-right approach, unburdened by many postwar Western values.

默茨在演讲中指出，美国正在“彻底重塑其外交和安全政策”。他指出了特朗普政府“强权即公理”方式的危险，这种方式不再受许多战后西方价值观的制约。

“The United States’ global pole position is being challenged,” Mr. Merz said. “We have entered a time of great-power politics. As we forge ahead, we must never forget one thing: A world where only power counts is a dangerous place — first for small states, then for the middle powers and, ultimately, for the great ones.”

“美国的全球头号地位正在受到挑战，”默茨说。“我们已进入大国政治时代。接下来，我们绝不能忘记一件事：一个只讲实力的世界是危险的——首先对小国，然后对中等强国，最终对大国，都是如此。”

He then implicitly chided Mr. Trump for his demeaning treatment of European allies.

他随后含蓄地批评特朗普对欧洲盟友的轻慢对待。

“Democracies do not have subordinates,” Mr. Merz said. “They have allies, partners and trusted friends.”

“民主国家没有下属，”默茨说。“它们有盟友、伙伴和值得信赖的朋友。”

The German leader’s comments echoed those of Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, who said on Tuesday that a world order dependent on superpowers like the United States was coming to an end. In a speech widely discussed by Davos attendees, he called the phase a “rupture.”

德国领导人的评论呼应了加拿大总理卡尼周二的说法，后者表示依赖像美国这样的超级大国的世界秩序正在终结。在达沃斯与会者广泛讨论的演讲中，他将这一阶段称为“决裂”。

Mr. Trump responded by saying that Canada should be “grateful to us.”

特朗普回应称，加拿大应该“感激我们”。

The president’s unpredictability largely dominated a summit that in the past had amounted to a brainstorming session among financial and political elites. Attendees rearranged their meetings in order to see Mr. Trump speak. In years past, participants had been able to show up at the main auditorium only a few minutes before keynote addresses by presidents and prime ministers and find a seat.

总统的不可预测性主导了这次峰会，过去，这里只是金融和政治精英的头脑风暴会议。与会者为了观看特朗普的演讲，需要重新安排自己的会议日程。往年，参与者只需在总统或总理主旨演讲前几分钟抵达主礼堂就能找到座位。

This year, a full 90 minutes before the main event, hundreds of people jammed the entire ground floor of the enormous convention center.

今年，主活动开始前整整90分钟，举行会议中心的底层就已经挤了数百人。

“No pushing!” staff members said with increasing intensity as people shoved and maneuvered.

“不要推搡！”随着人们推来挤去争夺位置，工作人员的语气越来越紧张。

The presence of the president and his delegation brought tension to a gathering that usually features like-minded businessmen. When Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s commerce secretary, delivered remarks at a dinner earlier in the week, he was heckled by former Vice President Al Gore, a prominent climate activist.

总统及其代表团的出现给这个通常由志同道合的商界人士参加的聚会带来了紧张气氛。本周早些时候，特朗普的商务部长卢特尼克在晚宴上发表讲话时，被著名气候活动家、前副总统戈尔喝倒彩。

“It’s no secret that I think this administration’s energy policy is insane,” Mr. Gore said in a statement. “And at the end of his speech I reacted with how I felt, and so did several others.”

“众所周知，我认为本届政府的能源政策是疯狂的，”戈尔在声明中说。“在他演讲结束时，我表达了我的感受，其他几个人也是如此。”

“Thankfully, we didn’t come to Davos for Al Gore’s praise,” Mr. Lutnick said on Thursday on social media.

“谢天谢地，我们来达沃斯不是为了阿尔·戈尔的赞美，”卢特尼克周四在社交媒体上说。

In Mr. Trump’s volatility, there is also the chance that those on the receiving end will emerge better than they had expected.

特朗普多变的特质，也可能令接收方感觉比预期的要好。

Some Europeans told current and former U.S. officials at Davos that they were leaving the event feeling better than when they had entered, after Mr. Trump lifted his imminent threat of tariffs.

一些欧洲人在达沃斯告诉现任和前任美国官员，在特朗普解除即将到来的关税威胁后，他们离开峰会时感觉比抵达时更好。

But before leaving on Thursday, Mr. Trump again raised the possibility of pivoting.

但在周四离开前，特朗普再次提出转变方向的可能性。

He said that European nations that had sold off U.S. bonds could face his wrath.

他说，他不会放过那些出售美国国债的欧洲国家。

“If they do, they do, but you know, if that would happen, there would be a big retaliation on our part,” Mr. Trump said. “And we have all the cards.”

“如果他们这么做，那就做，但你知道，如果发生这种情况，我们将进行大规模报复，”特朗普说。“我们手里有的是牌。”

President Trump pounces on weakness, but retreats from strength. That’s one reason for Europe’s present troubles: For too long it was weak both toward President Vladimir Putin of Russia in the East and toward the new menace arising in the West.

特朗普总统见到弱者会痛打，面对强者则退缩。这正是欧洲当前困境的一个原因：长期以来，它在东方对俄罗斯总统普京表现出软弱，在西方对新生的威胁也同样软弱。

That’s certainly Trump’s perception. “I think they’re weak,” Trump said last month of European leaders, and he had a point. They fawned over him and meekly surrendered as he steamrolled them with tariffs.

这当然是特朗普的认知。上个月他在谈到欧洲领导人时说：“我觉得他们很弱。”他说的有道理。他们对他阿谀奉承，在他用关税碾压他们时乖乖就范。

Trump was preying upon that weakness as he threatened to seize Greenland and effectively destroy NATO, while warning of a new trade war if Europe resisted. In Davos on Wednesday, perhaps reacting to European pushback, he backed off somewhat: “I don’t have to use force” to acquire Greenland, he said. “I won’t use force.” Later in the day he withdrew, at least for now, the threat to impose new tariffs on Europe over the Greenland dispute.

特朗普正是利用这种弱点，威胁要夺取格陵兰岛，实质上摧毁北约，并警告如果欧洲抵抗，将发动新一轮贸易战。周三在达沃斯，或许是对欧洲反击的反应，他有所退让：“我不需要使用武力”来获取格陵兰岛，他说。“我不会使用武力。”当天晚些时候，他至少暂时撤回了因格陵兰岛争端而对欧洲施加新关税的威胁。

Earlier, he had posted a map showing Greenland, Canada and Venezuela all as part of the United States.

此前，他曾发布一张地图，将格陵兰岛、加拿大和委内瑞拉全部标为美国的一部分。

It has come to this: Canadian military planners reportedly are gaming how they might repel an American invasion with guerrilla tactics similar to those used by Afghan fighters.

事情已经发展到这个地步：据报道，加拿大军事规划者正在模拟如何用类似于阿富汗战士的游击战术击退美国入侵。

Fortunately, the shock of Trump’s Greenland demands may finally be leading world leaders to awaken to the American threat. (How weird even to type that!)

幸运的是，特朗普的格陵兰岛主张引起的震惊或许终于让世界领导人认识到来自美国的威胁。（这句话写出来都觉得怪怪的！）

“Until now, we tried to appease the new president in the White House,” Prime Minister Bart De Wever of Belgium said Tuesday. “We were very lenient, also with the tariffs, we were lenient, hoping to get his support for the Ukraine war.”

“到目前为止我们都是在安抚白宫的新总统，”比利时首相巴特·德韦弗周二说。“我们毫不计较，在关税问题上也没计较，只是希望换取他对乌克兰战争的支持。”

“But now so many red lines are being crossed,” he added. “Being a happy vassal is one thing, being a miserable slave is something else.”

“但现在太多红线被跨越，”他补充道。“做个心满意足的附庸是一回事，做个悲惨的奴隶是另一回事。”

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, made a similar point on social media: “Appeasement is always a sign of weakness,” he wrote. “Europe cannot afford to be weak — neither against its enemies, nor ally. Appeasement means no results, only humiliation.”

波兰首相唐纳德·图斯克在社交媒体上表达了类似观点：“绥靖永远是一种软弱的表现，”他写道。“欧洲不能在敌人面前软弱，也不能在盟友面前软弱。绥靖意味着毫无结果，只有屈辱。”

President Emmanuel Macron of France called Trump’s latest tariff threats “unacceptable.” He added, in a statement that notably equated the menace from Trump to that of Putin: “No intimidation or threat will influence us — neither in Ukraine, nor in Greenland.”

法国总统马克龙称特朗普最新的关税威胁“不可接受”。他在声明中特别将特朗普的威胁与普京相提并论：“没有任何恐吓或威胁会影响我们——无论在乌克兰，还是在格陵兰岛。”

The dangers of appeasement should, of course, have been fully absorbed by Europeans in the 1930s. As Winston Churchill warned Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain after the Munich agreement with Hitler in 1938: “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.”

当然，绥靖的危险应该是早在1930年代就被欧洲人彻底吸取的教训。正如丘吉尔在1938年慕尼黑协定后对张伯伦首相发出的警告：“你面临战争与耻辱的选择。你选择了耻辱，你将得到战争。”

President Richard Nixon and other conservative Americans likewise counseled the importance of standing up to Communists by quoting a supposed instruction by Lenin: “Probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”

尼克松总统和其他保守派美国人同样引用据称是列宁的指示，强调对抗共产主义的重要性：“用刺刀试探。如果碰到软泥，继续前进；如果碰到钢铁，就撤退。”

Leaders who pushed back at Trump did better than the Europeans. One is China’s president, Xi Jinping, who retaliated aggressively against Trump’s tariffs by curbing exports of rare earth minerals — forcing Trump to back off. Indeed, Trump has since then been unusually conciliatory toward Beijing, allowing sales of advanced chips and quietly accepting China’s bullying of Japan and Taiwan.

那些对特朗普强硬回击的领导人得到了比欧洲人更好的结果。其中之一是中国国家主席习近平，他对特朗普的关税采取了强硬报复，限制稀土矿物出口——迫使特朗普退让。事实上，此后特朗普对北京的态度异常温和，允许先进芯片销售，并悄然接受中国对日本和台湾的霸凌。

The other is Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney. His predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had been conciliatory, but the result was mockery from Trump and calls for Canada to become America’s 51st state. Carney from the outset was polite but resistant, and Trump has been somewhat more respectful toward Canada since, even as Ottawa has pursued new partnerships elsewhere.

另一位是加拿大总理卡尼。他的前任特鲁多一直采取绥靖态度，结果换来特朗普的嘲讽和将加拿大变为美国第51州的要求。卡尼从一开始就礼貌但坚决抵抗，此后特朗普对加拿大的态度多少更为尊重，即便渥太华正在其他地方寻求新伙伴关系。

Just last week, Carney reached a landmark trade deal with China that laid the groundwork for much closer economic ties. Some Americans are angry, but Carney said bluntly that China is now a “more predictable” trade partner than the United States. And Trump, instead of erupting with venom, calmly accepted the Canada-China deal.

就在上周，卡尼与中国达成了一项具有里程碑意义的贸易协议，为更紧密的经济联系奠定基础。有些美国人感到愤怒，但卡尼直言不讳地说，中国现在是比美国“更可预测”的贸易伙伴。而特朗普没有大发雷霆，而是平静地接受了加中协议。

“Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” Carney said in a quite brilliant speech in Davos on Tuesday. He did not shake his fist or indulge in insults, but he indicated that the United States was no longer trustworthy and that Canada would find its own way forward.

“中等强国必须联合行动，因为我们要么上桌吃饭，要么摆上桌被人吃，”卡尼周二在达沃斯发表了一场相当精彩的演讲。他没有挥拳或侮辱，而是明确表示美国已不再可信，加拿大将找到自己的前进道路。

“When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself,” he said, describing this as a “rupture” with the past. “But let’s be cleareyed about where this leads. A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable.”

“当规则不再保护你时，你必须保护自己，”他说，将此描述为与过去的“决裂”。“但让我们清醒地看到这将通向何方。一个堡垒林立的世界将更贫穷、更脆弱、更不可持续。”

He’s right, and that is indeed the world that Trump is leading us all into. It’s a tragedy for Americans as well as our former allies.

他说得对，这正是特朗普把我们所有人带入的世界。这对美国人以及我们昔日的盟友来说都是一场悲剧。

That’s why it’s important that Europeans respond to new Trump tariffs, if he revives them, with retaliatory tariffs and their “bazooka” sanctions on American service companies. Indeed, it seems probable that Trump dialed back threats of force and of new tariffs because of the hostile reaction, including from the stock market.

正因如此，如果特朗普重启新关税，欧洲人必须以报复性关税和对美国服务企业的“火箭筒”制裁来回应。事实上，特朗普之所以收回武力和新关税的威胁，可能正是因为包括股市在内的敌对反应。

I reached out to Lord Patten, one of the European figures I most respect — a former senior figure in Britain’s Conservative Party, then governor of Hong Kong and later Europe’s foreign policy chief and chancellor of Oxford University. Patten returned my call just as a particularly erratic Trump was telling a press conference that America had never been more respected, and he could hear Trump’s voice in the background.

我联系了彭定康勋爵(Lord Patten)——我最尊敬的欧洲要人之一，他曾是英国保守党高层、香港总督、欧洲外交政策负责人以及牛津大学校长。在他回电时，正好赶上特朗普在新闻发布会上使用比平常还颠三倒四的方式，说着美国从未如此受尊重，我能在背景中听到特朗普的声音。

“You’re listening to those rambling mendacities,” he said, “of the demented leader of the free world.” Those are the words of a temperate British conservative who has been an outspoken fan of America throughout his career, yet who is today aghast at the sight of the United States destroying its soft power worldwide. Patten hopes European leaders will be willing to stand up to Trump because, “sooner or later, he has to be stopped.”

“你在听那个疯癫的自由世界领袖胡言乱语的谎言，”他说。这是一位温和的英国保守派的话，他一生都是美国的公开粉丝，如今却对美国在全球摧毁软实力的景象感到震惊。彭定康希望欧洲领导人能拿出反抗特朗普的意志，因为“迟早得阻止他”。

The paradox is that Trump is coercing Greenland on the basis of national security considerations and concerns about Russia and China. Yet what Putin covets far more than Greenland is the destruction of NATO, which Trump may now deliver. Russian newspapers and commentators are chortling.

矛盾的是，特朗普以国家安全考虑和对俄罗斯、中国的担忧为由胁迫格陵兰岛。然而，普京真正觊觎的远超格陵兰岛，而是摧毁北约，特朗普现在可能亲手帮他实现这个目标。俄罗斯报纸和评论员正在窃喜。

“Trans-Atlantic unity is over,” declared Kirill Dmitriev, a Putin associate. And all this is distracting global attention from Russia’s barbaric bombing of Ukraine and the need to support Ukrainians. As Patten told me, “Putin is the really big winner.”

“跨大西洋团结结束了，”普京的亲信基里尔·德米特里耶夫宣称。这一切正转移全球视线，让人们忽略俄罗斯对乌克兰的野蛮轰炸以及援助乌克兰的迫切需要。正如彭定康告诉我：“普京才是真正的大赢家。”

Indeed, if Trump were systematically trying to shore up the Kremlin and undermine the United States position in the world, he could hardly do better than he has over the last year. “China and Russia must be having a field day,” observed Kaja Kallas, the European Union foreign affairs chief.

的确，如果特朗普是在系统性地努力支持克里姆林宫并削弱美国在世界的地位，他过去一年的成绩已经好得不能再好。“中国和俄罗斯一定乐不可支，”欧盟外交事务负责人卡娅·卡拉斯评论道。

Today the presidents of Russia and the United States are both working to undermine NATO and the entire American-created system that since 1945 has greatly benefited all of us.

如今，俄罗斯总统和美国总统都在致力于削弱北约，以及美国自1945年以来创建的整个惠及我们所有人的体系。

It pains me as an American to urge leaders to defy my own country, and perhaps this seems disloyal. But it’s not. Seizing Greenland won’t benefit Americans any more than occupying Iraq did; we don’t want our children patrolling Nuuk or Toronto any more than we wanted them in Falluja or Kandahar.

作为美国人，敦促各国领导人反抗我自己的国家让我感到痛苦，或许也显得不忠。但并非如此。夺取格陵兰岛不会比占领伊拉克更能惠及美国人；我们不希望我们的孩子在努克或多伦多巡逻，正如我们当年不希望他们在费卢杰或坎大哈。

“Our friends and allies must stop indulging, enabling, and submitting to America’s madman president,” urged Larry Diamond, a democracy scholar at Stanford University. “Only forthright resistance and tough love will get us out of our downward spiral.”

“我们的朋友和盟友必须停止纵容、助长并屈从于美国的疯子总统，”斯坦福大学民主学者拉里·戴蒙德呼吁。“只有直截了当的抵抗和严厉的爱才能让我们摆脱恶性循环的趋势。”

So, please, world leaders: Don’t appease America.

所以，世界各国的领导人们：请不要绥靖美国。

As President Trump threatened to upend some of the central pillars of the Western order on Wednesday, during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, some in the crowd of elites sat speechless. Others groaned. A few gasped.

周三，在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上，美国总统特朗普威胁要颠覆西方秩序的一些核心支柱时，会场上的精英们有些人坐在那里哑口无言。有些人发出叹息。还有人倒抽一口凉气。

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish president and a key power broker in Europe, stood up ashen-faced at the end of the speech that took aim at people like him: the leaders of the Western political and economic elite. As others made for the exits, Mr. Stubb approached Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina — seeking to learn more, Mr. Graham later said, about Mr. Trump and the United States’ position.

关键的欧洲权力中间人、芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布在演讲结束后脸色苍白地站了起来。这场演讲针对的就是像他这样的人：西方政治领袖和经济精英们。当人们纷纷走向出口时，斯图布走向了南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆，后者晚些时候表示，斯图布是想了解更多关于特朗普和美国立场的细节。

“Everybody in Europe is concerned,” Mr. Graham, an ally of Mr. Trump, said dismissively after speaking to Mr. Stubb. “They’re concerned when they get up and when they go to bed.”

“欧洲每个人都很担心，”作为特朗普盟友的格雷厄姆在与斯图布交谈后轻蔑地说。“他们起床时担心，上床睡觉时也担心。”

The reaction from Mr. Stubb, who declined to comment, embodied a broader sense of shock across the conference, a talking shop for political and economic leaders. For decades, like-minded politicians, businesspeople, investors and celebrities have gathered in Davos to discuss a shared economic and political future. But for more than an hour on Wednesday in one of the main speaking halls, Mr. Trump transformed the forum into the setting of a dramatic rupture between the West’s leading player and its increasingly distant allies.

斯图布拒绝置评，但他的反应体现了整个会议普遍的震惊感。这场会议是政治和经济领袖们的论坛。几十年来，志同道合的政治家、企业人士、投资者和名人齐聚达沃斯，讨论共同的经济和政治未来。但周三的，在一个主要演讲厅里，特朗普用一个多小时将这个论坛变成了西方主导力量与其日益疏远的盟友之间戏剧性决裂的舞台。

After mocking European leaders for days, Mr. Trump flew thousands of miles to this snowy mountainside to launch into a verbal assault against the Western alliance, the values of its leaders and societies, and the framework of world trade.

连续几天嘲讽欧洲领导人后，特朗普飞越数千公里来到这个白雪覆盖的山坡，对西方联盟、其领导人和社会的价值观以及世界贸易框架发起言语攻击。

By the end of the day Mr. Trump had rescinded some of his worst threats, saying that he had reached a tentative framework with NATO over the future of Greenland, which he wants to buy from Denmark, and withdrawn threats to impose new tariffs on allies that opposed U.S. ownership of Greenland.

当日结束时特朗普收回了一些最严重的威胁。他说，他已与北约就格陵兰岛的未来达成初步框架协议（他希望向丹麦购买该岛），并撤回了向反对美国拥有格陵兰岛的盟友征收新关税的威胁。

While some European leaders expressed a glimmer of hope over the moves, they did little to salve the deep fear among Davos’s browbeaten guests that the United States could no longer be relied on as an ally. Earlier in the day the group had weathered insult after insult from Mr. Trump about their approach to trade, the environment and immigration.

这些举动让一些欧洲领导人表现出些许希望，但并未缓解达沃斯那些备受打击的与会者内心深处的恐惧：美国不再是可靠的盟友。当天早些时候，这个群体已经连续遭受了特朗普在贸易、环境和移民问题上对他们的侮辱。

Scattered chuckling fell to an anxious silence before turning into audible gasps as Mr. Trump used his speech to once again demand ownership of Greenland, lash out against NATO and vaguely threaten economic warfare if the European leaders did not acquiesce to his demands.

随着特朗普在演讲中再次要求拥有格陵兰岛、抨击北约，并模糊地威胁如果欧洲领导人不同意他的要求将发动经济战，零星的轻笑转为焦虑的沉默，最终变成清晰可闻的惊恐。

European leaders sat stunned as Mr. Trump insulted their governments and questioned their reliability as allies. Others grimaced as Mr. Trump claimed the European nations and Canada owed the United States a debt. Some even scrambled after the speech to find and question current and former U.S. officials about the president’s thinking and the future of the United States as a trustworthy partner.

欧洲领导人们震惊地看着特朗普侮辱他们的政府，质疑他们作为盟友的可靠性。有些人则在特朗普声称欧洲国家和加拿大欠美国一笔债时脸部扭曲。有人甚至在演讲结束后匆忙寻找现任和前任美国官员，询问总统的想法以及美国作为可靠伙伴的未来。

Phil Gordon, a former national security adviser for Kamala Harris who attended the speech, said foreign officials approached him during the summit asking if Mr. Trump’s position was now “permanent.”

曾任贺锦丽国家安全顾问的菲尔·戈登出席了该活动，他表示外国官员在峰会中来问他，特朗普的立场是否已经“固化”。

“Is this America?” Mr. Gordon said European officials asked him on Wednesday. “And is the post-World War II era definitively over — or is there any hope it comes back?”

“这是美国吗？”戈登说欧洲官员周三这样问他。“二战后的时代是否彻底结束了——还是说尚有希望回归？”

But there was also a growing acceptance that a new world order is now emerging, right under their noses at a conference that for years was so emblematic of the old frameworks.

但与此同时，也出现了越来越明显的接受：一个新世界秩序正在与会者们眼皮底下浮现，而这个会议多年来一直是旧框架的象征。

“They accept that under Trump this is a new world,” said Mr. Gordon. “No one can deny that and even the Europeans who have been in denial now accept.”

“他们接受在特朗普领导下已然是一个新世界，”戈登说。“没人能否认这一点，甚至那些一直否认的欧洲人现在也接受了。”

In his speech, Mr. Trump crystallized an idea central to that new world — a searing disregard for the post-World War II world order.

在演讲中，特朗普阐明了这个新世界观的一个核心理念——对二战后世界秩序的彻底漠视。

Mr. Trump suggested the European allies owed him Greenland. He said that without the United States’ efforts in World War II, “you’d all be speaking German and a little Japanese perhaps,” prompting moans from the crowd. And while he said he would not use force to obtain Greenland — prompting some to breathe a sigh of relief — he did continued to frame Greenland as a debt that needed to be paid.

特朗普暗示格陵兰岛本就是欧洲盟友欠他的。他说，如果没有美国在二战中的努力，“你们所有人现在都说德语，或许还会点日语”，此言令台下一些人表现出不满。虽然他说不会使用武力获取格陵兰岛——这让一些人松了口气——但他继续将格陵兰岛框定为需要偿还的债务。

“You can say yes and we will be very appreciative or you can say no and we will remember,” Mr. Trump said.

“你们可以说‘是’，我们会非常感激；或者说‘不’，我们也会记住，”特朗普说。

Mr. Trump took particular aim at Switzerland, the country hosting the summit, stunning some Swiss officials. “They’re only good because of us,” Mr. Trump said of the Swiss as he celebrated his sweeping tariffs.

特朗普特别针对主办峰会的瑞士发起抨击，这让一些瑞士官员震惊。“他们之所以好，全靠我们，”特朗普在庆祝自己全面关税时这样说瑞士人。

“I was really astonished,” said Elisabeth Schneider-Schneiter, a member of the Swiss Parliament. “We are the hosts, we are the guarantee for his security from the airport to Davos, with public tax money spent, and I was convinced that we had resolved the trade issue.”

“我真的很震惊，”瑞士议会议员伊丽莎白·施奈德-施奈特说。“我们是东道主，我们用公共税款保障他从机场到达沃斯的安全，我本以为我们已经解决了贸易问题。”

Whether the attendees liked his speech or not — and many seemed to loathe it — Mr. Trump’s appearance was the talk of the conference.

不管与会者是否喜欢他的演讲——很多人似乎不喜欢——特朗普的出现仍是会议的热门话题。

Outside the hall where Mr. Trump spoke, companies held watch parties to view his speech. Attendees tried to rearrange meetings in order not to miss it. On the promenade, people live streamed his remarks while walking, before others later recounted the bombshells in the speech. “Are we even important?” one asked.

在演讲的大厅外，多家企业组织了观看会。与会者试图重新安排会议，以免错过这场讲话。在步行街上，人们边走边看讲话的直播，后来又有一些人在复述演讲中的重磅内容。“我们还重要吗？”有人问道。

Yet others spoke of a disaster averted, particularly after Mr. Trump said he was not interested in using force to acquire Greenland. Senator Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware, said he later encountered some European officials who told him “it could’ve been worse.”

然而，也有人谈到一场灾难得以避免，特别是特朗普表示他无意使用武力获取格陵兰岛后。特拉华州民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯表示，他后来遇到一些欧洲官员，他们告诉他，“本可能更糟糕。”

“It’s remarkable when we’ve gotten to a place where we’re saying it could’ve been worse because an American president took off the table the use of force against a NATO ally,” Mr. Coons said.

“当我们到了这样一个地步——因为一位美国总统取消了对北约盟友使用武力的选项——我们却说‘本可能更糟糕’，这真是不可思议，”库恩斯说。

Here and there, you could find warm support for the president.

时不时还能看到对总统的热烈支持。

After his speech, Mr. Trump spoke at a reception for business executives, financial chiefs and cryptocurrency leaders.

演讲后，特朗普在为商业高管、金融主管和加密货币领袖举办的招待会上讲话。

“We got great reviews,” Mr. Trump told the crowd. “I can’t believe it, but we got good reviews of that speech. Usually they say he’s a horrible dictator type person, but sometimes you need a dictator.”

“我们获得了极好的评价，”特朗普对人群说。“我简直不敢相信，但那场演讲获得了好评。通常他们说我是个可怕的独裁者类型的人，但有时你需要一个独裁者。”

Minutes later, as Mr. Trump finished speaking, he was met with loud applause.

几分钟后，特朗普结束讲话时，获得了响亮的掌声。

And once Mr. Trump revoked some of his biggest threats on Wednesday evening, the mood across the conference edged closer to relief.

特朗普在周三晚上撤销了一些最大威胁后，整个会议的气氛就趋向于宽慰。

After Mr. Trump’s decision to pull back on tariffs, some attendees texted their peers a single word: “Taco!”

在特朗普决定撤回关税后，一些与会者给同行发短信，只有一个词：“Taco！”

The term is short for Trump Always Chickens Out, a tongue-in-cheek quip adopted by some critics to describe Mr. Trump’s tendency to threaten sweeping tariffs, only to pull them back.

这个词是“Trump Always Chickens Out”（特朗普总是临阵退缩）的缩写，一些批评者用这个俏皮说法描述特朗普倾向于威胁全面关税、最终却撤回的习惯。

“They’ve lived through so many cycles of this,” Mr. Gordon said. “You live to fight another day.”

“他们已经经历过这么多轮这样的循环，”戈登说。“活下来，就能再战一天。”

In a long, rambling address that was by turns bombastic, aggrieved and self-congratulatory, President Trump pronounced last rites on American leadership of the liberal democratic order forged by the United States and its allies after World War II.

特朗普总统发表了一篇冗长杂乱的演讲，内容时而华丽浮夸，时而愤愤不平，时而自我标榜，宣告了美国在二战后由其与盟友共同建立的自由民主秩序中的领导地位彻底终结。

Mr. Trump used a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday — a pilgrimage site for adherents of globalization — to assert that the United States was done offering its markets and its military protection to European allies he derided as freeloaders. And he vowed to advance his trade war. He characterized tariffs as the price of admission to a land of 300 million consumers.

周三，特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛这个全球化拥趸心中的圣地发表主旨演讲时宣称，美国不会再向那些被他嘲讽为搭便车者的欧洲盟友们开放市场、提供军事保护，并誓言要推进贸易战。他将关税形容为进入美国这个拥有3亿消费者市场的入场费。

“The United States is keeping the whole world afloat,” Mr. Trump said. “Everybody took advantage of the United States.”

“是美国在支撑着整个世界运转，” 特朗普说。“所有人都在占美国的便宜。”

By evening, Mr. Trump had flip-flopped on Greenland. He said in a social media post that he would no longer use tariffs to try to wrest control of the Danish territory, at least while discussions between his top aides and Europeans carried forth. The announcement spared the sovereignty of the island, but there was no taking back the significance of Mr. Trump’s attack on the global economic order just hours earlier.

当晚，特朗普在格陵兰岛问题上突然改口。他在社交媒体发文称，至少在其高级助手与欧洲方面的谈判持续期间，不会再以关税为手段夺取这块丹麦领地的控制权。这一声明保住了格陵兰岛的主权，但他数小时前猛烈抨击全球经济秩序造成的影响已无可挽回。

The American president appeared in the same auditorium where, nine years earlier, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, gave a speech claiming credentials as a champion of international cooperation. Mr. Xi captivated the village of Davos with his endorsement of what he described as “economic globalization.” His 2017 address, delivered days before Mr. Trump was inaugurated for his first term, resonated as a clear yet futile effort to stave off the trade war that soon unfolded.

九年前，就在特朗普发表演讲的会场，中国国家主席习近平用一场演讲彰显了中国拥护国际合作的立场。当时，习近平主席对“经济全球化”的支持赢得了达沃斯各界的认可。2017年的那一次演讲发表于特朗普首次就职前数日，虽清晰传递了中国立场，却未能阻止随后贸易战的爆发，终究徒劳无功。

“Pursuing protectionism is just like locking oneself in a dark room,” Mr. Xi said that day. “While wind and rain may be kept outside, that dark room will also block light and air. No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war.”

“搞保护主义如同把自己关进黑屋子，”习近平当日这样说。“看似躲过了风吹雨打，但也隔绝了阳光和空气。打贸易战的结果只能是两败俱伤。”

Then as now, deep skepticism greeted China’s bid for recognition as a responsible superpower in contrast to Mr. Trump’s vision of “America First.” China’s government has long subsidized the making of factory goods that have threatened jobs from Indiana to Indonesia. China’s surveillance state has jailed dissidents, labor organizers and journalists. Its military has menaced the self-governing island of Taiwan and neighbors in Southeast Asia. Not even its greatest allies would describe China as a paragon of fair dealing.

中国试图将自己塑造为一个负责任的超级大国——与之形成鲜明对比的是特朗普的“美国优先”理念，但无论过去还是现在，这一努力始终面临外界的深度质疑。中国政府长期为工业品生产提供补贴，威胁着从印第安纳州到印度尼西亚的就业岗位；中国的监控体系监禁异见人士、劳工组织者与记者；中国军队对自治岛屿台湾及东南亚邻国构成军事威胁。即便是中国最亲密的盟友，也不会将中国描述为公平交易的典范。

Yet in the near decade since, the sense has only been enhanced that China is — at least rhetorically — invested in economic values that Mr. Trump has renounced: engagement in multilateral institutions to advance its causes, faith in the wealth-enhancing powers of global trade and recognition that no country is large enough or powerful enough to go it alone.

然而在近十年后的今天，一种感受愈发强烈：至少在言辞层面，中国仍坚守着特朗普已然摒弃的经济理念——通过参与多边机构推动自身发展，坚信全球贸易具备创造财富的力量，并承认没有任何国家强大到足以独善其身。

Mr. Trump used his 90-minute turn before the global elite to underscore that contrast, even as fundamental doubts remain about the desirability of a world increasingly influenced by Beijing.

特朗普向全球精英发表了长达90分钟的演讲，正凸显了这一鲜明反差，尽管外界对于一个受中国影响日益加深的世界是否值得期待仍抱有根本性的质疑。

“China definitely wants to assume the mantle of being the adult in the room, while the United States continues capriciously showing hostility,” said Eswar Prasad, an international trade expert at Cornell University. “The question is whether the rest of the world is willing to accede. I don’t think the world is ready to carry full on into the embrace of China.”

康奈尔大学国际贸易专家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示：“中国显然渴望塑造成年人的形象，而美国依旧任性地表现出敌意。问题的关键在于，世界其他国家是否愿意认可这一点。我认为，国际社会尚未准备好完全拥抱中国。”

Europe and China are, in some ways, natural allies in an era when the United States has opted for nationalist brio. Both remain officially committed to the concept of rules-based international trade, even as China is frequently accused of breaching the details. Both affirm the scientific reality of climate change, while mobilizing investment and know-how to combat it.

在美国奉行民族主义强硬政策的当下，欧洲与中国在某些方面是天然的盟友。尽管中国常被指控违反具体规则，双方仍在官方层面坚守基于规则的国际贸易理念；双方均认可气候变化的科学事实，也在调动投资与技术力量应对这一问题。

China is the global leader in clean energy technology, designing and manufacturing solar cells, wind turbines, electric vehicles and batteries. Europe, despite recent step backs, has set ambitious targets to diminish carbon emissions — a fact that Mr. Trump singled out for derision during his speech, while thumping his chest for the American return to fossil fuels.

中国已是清洁能源技术领域的全球领导者，在太阳能电池、风力发电机、电动汽车及电池的设计与制造方面均处于领先地位。欧洲尽管近期在清洁能源发展上有所倒退，仍制定了雄心勃勃的碳排放削减目标——特朗普在演讲中却对此大加嘲讽，还大肆吹捧美国重新倚重化石燃料的做法。

“The United States avoided the catastrophic energy collapse which befell every European nation that pursued the green new scam, perhaps the greatest hoax in history,” Mr. Trump said.

特朗普称：“美国成功规避了灾难性能源崩溃——所有推行绿色新政骗局的欧洲国家都遭遇了这场灾难，这或许是史上最大的骗局。”

He suggested that Chinese manufacturers were laughing while selling their wind turbines to European buyers. “They sell them to stupid people,” Mr. Trump said. “Mostly, China goes with the coal.”

他还声称，中国制造商一边向欧洲出售风力发电机，一边在嘲笑。“他们把这些东西卖给一群蠢货，”特朗普说。“而中国自己，主要还是靠烧煤。”

In truth, the Chinese government has invested aggressively in a world-leading expansion of renewable energy while diminishing its still substantial reliance on coal.

但事实是，中国政府在大力投资全球领先的可再生能源扩张项目的同时，也在逐步降低对煤炭的依赖——尽管目前它对煤炭仍存在相当程度的依赖。

Given that Europe’s largest economies — especially Germany — contain large-scale auto industries, and given that China has become the dominant source of electric vehicles and batteries, the two economic powers are likely to remain major industrial rivals.

欧洲的几大经济体——尤其是德国——都拥有规模庞大的汽车产业，而中国已成为电动汽车和电池领域的主导供应方，因此这两个经济大国仍将是重要的工业竞争对手。

The biggest wedge between them is Ukraine, said Adam Tooze, an economic historian at Columbia University and author of Chartbook, a popular newsletter. China’s steadfast refusal to condemn Russian aggression is a nonstarter in Europe, where Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s president, is feared and reviled.

哥伦比亚大学经济史学家、热门时事通讯“图表集”(Chartbook)作者亚当·图兹表示，乌克兰问题是横亘在欧中之间最大的分歧。中国始终拒绝谴责俄罗斯的侵略行为，这一点在欧洲完全无法被接受——在欧洲，俄罗斯总统普京为人忌惮，也遭人唾骂。

“The Europeans would stand alongside China but for Ukraine,” Dr. Tooze said. He called Russia’s war a barrier to what might otherwise be a natural form of “Eurasian multilateralism.”

图兹称：“若非俄乌冲突，欧洲本会与中国并肩而立。”他将俄罗斯发起的这场战争称作阻碍欧亚大陆形成天然“欧亚多边主义”的壁垒。

Mr. Trump’s arrival was highly anticipated in Davos, and across Europe, given his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, a fellow member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

由于特朗普曾威胁从北约成员丹麦手中夺取格陵兰岛，他的到访在达沃斯乃至整个欧洲都备受关注。

The mere possibility of a conflict between the United States and Denmark has threatened the credibility of NATO. In his speech, he repeated his laments that the North Atlantic alliance has functioned as a kind of American-furnished security charity.

美丹两国爆发冲突的潜在可能已让北约的公信力遭受冲击。特朗普在演讲中再次抱怨，声称这个北大西洋同盟不过是美国单方面提供安全保障的慈善之举。

“What I’m asking for is a piece of ice, cold and poorly located, that can play a vital role in world peace and world protection,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a very small ask compared to what we have given them for many, many decades.”

特朗普称：“我想要的，不过是一块冰天雪地的偏僻地方，它却能为世界和平与安全发挥关键作用。相比几十年来我们为他们付出的一切，这个要求实在很小。”

A day before Mr. Trump’s address, his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, declared during a panel discussion in Davos that the world trading system — constructed largely on American designs — was part of history.

特朗普发表演讲的前一天，其商务部长卢特尼克在达沃斯的一场专题研讨会上宣称，主要由美国主导设计的全球贸易体系如今已然成为历史。

“Globalization has failed the West and the United States of America,” Mr. Lutnick said.

卢特尼克称：“全球化辜负了西方和美利坚合众国。”

Also on Tuesday, Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, provided a counterweight to the worldview espoused by the Trump administration. He lamented the “rupture” of the world order and marked “the beginning of a brutal reality where the geopolitics of the great powers is not subject to any constraints.”

同样在周二，加拿大总理卡尼对特朗普政府的世界观提出反驳。他为世界秩序的“断裂”深感痛惜，并指出，“大国地缘政治不受任何约束的残酷现实已然开启”。

Mr. Trump offered a reminder of his willingness to impose tariffs on friends and enemies alike.

特朗普也再度表明，他不惜对盟友和对手一视同仁地加征关税。

In what appeared to be an off-the-cuff departure from his scripted remarks, the president recounted the story of how, last year, he decided to impose steep tariffs on imports from Switzerland.

在演讲中，他似乎脱离了事先拟定的讲稿，即兴讲述了去年决定对瑞士进口商品征收高额关税的始末。

Initially, he opted for 30 percent levies in an effort to close an American trade deficit with Switzerland, he said.

他称，为扭转美国对瑞士的贸易逆差，自己最初拟定的关税税率为30%。

Then he spoke with the country’s president, Karin Keller-Sutter. “A woman,” Mr. Trump said. “And she was very repetitive. She said: ‘No, no, no, you cannot do that, 30 percent. You cannot do that. We are a small, small country.’”

随后他与瑞士总统卡琳·凯勒-苏特通了电话。“一个女人，”特朗普说。“她翻来覆去就一句话，不停说：‘不行，不行，不行，你不能这么做，30%。你不能这么做。我们只是个小国，小国。’”

The call prompted Mr. Trump to increase the tariffs to 39 percent.

这通电话反倒让特朗普把关税税率提至了39%。

“She just rubbed me the wrong way, I’ll be honest with you,” Mr. Trump said, adding later, “She was so aggressive.”

“说实话，她这态度让我不爽，”特朗普坦言，随后又说。“她太咄咄逼人了。”

Then he got a visit from Rolex, the Swiss watchmaker. And then he agreed to reduce the tariffs to 15 percent.

之后，瑞士钟表商劳力士方面派人前来接洽，特朗普便同意将关税下调至15%。

“We brought it down to a lower level,” Mr. Trump said. “Doesn’t mean it’s not going up.”

“我们把税率压到了较低水平，”特朗普说。“但这并不意味着不会再涨。”

What a difference a year makes.

一年之隔，天翻地覆。

Last January, as Donald Trump stormed back into the White House, spoiling for a trade war and backed by an army of credentialed China hawks, it seemed a pretty safe bet that his return would mean an escalation of America’s great power rivalry with Beijing, what foreign-policy people had long since taken to calling, loosely, the New Cold War.

去年1月，特朗普强势重返白宫，蓄势打响贸易战，身后还有一众自身对华强硬派撑腰。彼时，外界几乎笃定，他的回归必将让美国与中国这两个大国的对抗再度升级——这场对抗，早已被外交政策人士笼统地称作“新冷战”。

In 2026, the country is in a remarkably different place geopolitically. China may loom in the background, but in the foreground we’ve had an unlawful military operation in Venezuela, an explicit play to take over Greenland and bully Europe, and threats against hostile governments in Cuba and Iran. A year of hostility toward Canada has driven that country into China’s arms — our brotherly neighbor and most loyal ally breaking formation with us and striking an electric vehicle trade deal that looks like such a departure, it’s been described as “making China great again.”

而2026年，美国的地缘政治处境已然天差地别。中国或许仍隐于幕后，但台前的美国，一边在委内瑞拉开展非法军事行动，一边公然企图接管格陵兰岛、威逼欧洲，还对古巴、伊朗等敌对国家发出威胁。对加拿大长达一年的敌对态度更是将这个邻国推向了中国的怀抱——这位曾与我们情同手足、最忠诚的盟友竟与美国分道扬镳，还与中国签署了堪称“让中国再次伟大”的电动汽车贸易协定。

Some of these actions may be motivated by great power rivalry. In others, perhaps, history is intervening and scrambling grand plans, and in still others we may be seeing the consequences of sheer diplomatic incompetence and shortsighted bluster. But another possibility is in the mix, too: that we are entering a new phase of a new cold war, one in which other global priorities have displaced a bipartisan Beltway obsession after more than a decade of steadily escalating conflict with the world’s other leading power.

这些举动，有些或许是出于大国对抗的考量；有些，或许是历史的介入打乱了宏伟规划；还有些，可能只是纯粹的外交失能与短视的虚张声势所致。但另一种可能性也同样存在：我们正步入新冷战的全新阶段，在与世界另一大国长达十余年的对抗持续升级后，其他全球优先事项已取代华盛顿两党对这一对抗的执念。

After first making an aggressive show on tariffs, the Trump administration has quickly retreated from the trade war, such that tariffs on China are now lower than those the U.S. imposed, for some reason, on India. The administration has also loosened artificial intelligence chip export restrictions that were imposed, nominally, on national security grounds. The National Security Strategy that inspired all the talk of a “Donroe Doctrine” relegated China to a secondary priority, devoting much more time to the homeland, the border and the culture wars of Western Europe.

特朗普政府起初强硬祭出关税大棒，却很快从贸易战中退缩，以至于如今美国对中国的关税竟低于美国莫名加征给印度的关税。政府还放宽了此前以国家安全为名设立的人工智能芯片出口限制。那份曾让“唐罗主义”成为热议话题的《国家安全战略》报告将中国降为次要议题，反而更多聚焦本土安全、边境问题以及西欧的文化战争。

If you’d like, you can divine a China logic behind the operation in Venezuela and the pursuit of Greenland. But when asked whether America’s unilateral action meant that China should feel empowered to move on Taiwan, Trump said casually that it was up to President Xi Jinping to decide. He struck a similar note when asked about the decision to open Canada to Chinese electric vehicles by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who this week delivered a stemwinder of a speech at Davos declaring the American-led rules-based liberal order — which he acknowledged was always partly a self-serving fiction — was dead. The speech earned a standing ovation. And when asked about Carney’s deal with Xi, Trump said it was a “good thing” that America’s nearest ally had instead made a deal with our longtime adversary. In fact, Trump added, “that’s what he should be doing.”

若你愿意，可以从委内瑞拉军事行动和争夺格陵兰岛的行为中找寻背后针对中国的逻辑。但当被问及美国的单边行动是否会赋权中国采取行动解决台湾问题时，特朗普却轻描淡写地表示，这取决于习近平主席的决定。加拿大总理卡尼本周在达沃斯发表了慷慨激昂的演讲，宣称由美国主导、基于规则的自由国际秩序已然崩塌——他也坦言，这一秩序向来部分带有自利的虚假色彩——演讲赢得了全场起立鼓掌，当被问及卡尼批准中国电动汽车进入加拿大市场的决定时，特朗普也持类似论调。当被问及卡尼与习近平的协议时，特朗普称，美国最亲密的盟友转与长期对手达成协议是“好事”，还说：“这正是他该做的。”

Is this détente? Time will tell, but for now at least it marks a cool-down. And the story is bigger than our capricious president and his eternal desire to mesmerize us with surprise shows of smash-and-grab power. Over the last year, among foreign policy thinkers well outside of Trump’s orbit, there has been what the China commentators Jeremy Goldkorn and Kaiser Kuo identified as a “vibe shift,” with an intuitive rivalry with the world’s other great power giving way to a complicated tangle of attitudes held together by simple awe. For a long time, American thinking about China was driven by hawks who insisted that the rival must be defeated, however defeat was defined. That perspective is still common; in fact, just last week, the China scholar Leland Miller, who recently served on Congress’s U.S.-China commission, described the possibility that the Chinese would cure cancer as a “nightmare scenario.” But what had been a broad consensus has fractured, with many more policy wonks beginning to ask instead whether we might ever catch up, and contemplating the possibility that, while the future is enormously uncertain, the answer may well be no.

这算是和解吗？答案尚待时间检验，但至少目前它标志着局势降温。而这一转变的背后，远不止我们这位反复无常的总统，以及他总想用巧取豪夺的强权戏码博取关注的执念。过去一年，在特朗普阵营之外的外交政策研究者中，出现了中国问题评论员金玉米(Jeremy Goldkorn)与郭怡广(Kaiser Kuo)所言的“氛围转向”：昔日对另一个世界大国的本能对抗，正让位于一种由纯粹敬畏维系的复杂心态纠葛。长期以来，美国的对华认知被强硬派主导，他们坚称必须击败这个对手，无论“击败”的定义为何。如今这一观点仍十分普遍，事实上，就在上周，刚在美国国会美中经济与安全审查委员会任职的中国问题学者利兰·米勒甚至将中国可能攻克癌症的前景形容为“噩梦场景”。但曾经的广泛共识已然破裂，越来越多的政策专家开始反思：我们是否还有机会迎头赶上？他们也开始正视一种可能性——尽管未来充满未知，但答案很可能是否定的。

You may already know the broad outlines on green tech: China is now installing roughly two-thirds of the world’s new wind and solar capacity each year, manufacturing inputs to the green transition at such scale and driving down the cost of such components so quickly that the developing world is now rushing to buy them at breathtaking speed. China manufactures 60 percent of the world’s wind turbines and in 2024 installed nearly 20 times as much wind power as the world’s second largest installer; it commands more than 70 percent of global production for E.V.s; and, despite relatively good news in the battery sector for the United States, China produces approximately 90 percent of that global market, too. If you measure the progress of civilization by its electricity production, then China is racing well ahead of the rest of the world.

你或许早已了解绿色科技领域的整体态势：如今中国每年新增的风电、光伏装机容量约占全球总量的三分之二；它对绿色转型所需的制造投入规模如此之大，且相关组件成本下降如此之快，使得发展中国家正以惊人的速度争相采购。中国的风力发电机产量占全球60%，2024年风电装机量接近全球第二的20倍；电动汽车全球产能占比超70%；即便美国在电池领域传来相对积极的消息，中国仍占据着全球约90%的电池市场份额。若以发电量衡量人类文明的发展进程，那么中国正遥遥领先于世界其他地区。

American hawks, eying the future of warfare, often complain about the disparity in drone manufacturing, with China producing about 70 percent of the world’s commercial drones and, according to American defense analysts, superior military versions as well. (The Times’s recent editorial series Overmatched is a very good showcase of these anxieties.) The gap in robotics is another sore spot, with China installing almost nine times as many robots as the United States did in 2024. China has much less military experience than America does, as critics of American military adventuring like to point out. But just last year the United States failed to achieve real victory against the Houthis (though the defeat was often downplayed), and periodically, we hear about military planning exercises, which suggest that the Pentagon cannot find a way, even in a war game, to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan.

着眼于未来战争形态的美国强硬派常对美中无人机制造的差距表示忧虑——中国的商用无人机产量占全球约70%，美国防务分析人士称，中国的军用无人机性能也更胜一筹（《纽约时报》近期推出的《实力悬殊》系列社论，便充分展现了这种焦虑。）机器人领域的差距同样是痛点，2024年中国的工业机器人装机量几乎是美国的九倍。正如批评美国军事冒险主义的人士所言，中国的军事经验远不如美国丰富。但就在去年，美国对胡塞武装的军事行动未能取得真正胜利（尽管这场失利常被轻描淡写）；而我们时常听闻，五角大楼的兵棋推演显示，即便是在模拟场景中，美军也找不到在台海冲突中取胜的办法。

Every China watcher has a favorite talking point. A year ago you heard economic patriots emphasizing the American advantage in A.I., but China seems to have effortlessly almost eliminated it: Last fall, Jensen Huang of the American chip powerhouse Nvidia said that China was poised to win the A.I. race, before softening his official position. Chinese companies ran nearly one third of all clinical trials in 2024, up from 5 percent just a decade ago, and the total value of drugs licensed globally from China has grown 15-fold in just the last five years.

每位中国问题观察家都有自己热衷的观点。一年前，经济爱国者还在强调美国在人工智能领域的优势，但如今中国似乎已轻松抹平了差距：去年秋天，美国芯片巨头英伟达的黄仁勋曾直言，中国注定会赢得人工智能竞赛，随后才淡化了自己的正式表态。2024年，中国企业开展的临床试验占全球总量的近三分之一，而十年前这一比例仅为5%；过去五年，中国药企向全球授权的药品总价值增长了15倍。

There are those who fret over China’s massive research and R&D spending, and its new appeal for international researchers and its rapidly growing share of top scientific publications. A certain kind of hardware geek likes to highlight the Chinese advantage in shipbuilding: By tonnage, more commercial vessels were built by China’s state-owned Shipbuilding Corporation in 2024 than the United States has managed to construct in total in the 80 years since the end of World War II.

有人为中国巨额的研发投入、对国际科研人才的全新吸引力，以及在顶级科学期刊发表论文占比的快速提升而忧心。不少硬件极客则格外关注中国在造船领域的优势：按吨位计算，2024年中国国有船舶集团建造的商用船舶总量已超过美国自二战结束80年来建造的总和。

And then there is the country’s astonishing pace of urbanization, with the number of people in Chinese cities more than doubling — from 450 million to over 900 million — just since 2000. If you worry over our housing crisis, and especially if you blame the slowdown in American construction for it, you may be startled to hear that more than two-thirds of all Chinese housing has been built since the turn of the millennium — and that more than 90 percent of Chinese own their own homes.

此外，中国的城市化进程也堪称惊人：2000年至今，中国城镇人口从4.5亿激增至9亿以上，翻了一倍多。如果你为美国的住房危机感到焦虑，尤其将其归咎于美国建筑行业发展放缓，那么听到下面的数据或许会深感震惊：中国超三分之二的住房都是2000年之后建成的，且中国的住房自有率超90%。

Maybe the built environment offers the most obvious contrast: all those high-speed rail lines, miles-long bridges and elevated roadways snaking through skyscraper cities. And a kind of latent China envy has animated much of the liberal reform movement known as “abundance.” The law professor David Schleicher has been a central figure in the academic wing of that intellectual coalition; when he was asked what kinds of infrastructure projects might excite enough American popular enthusiasm to justify federal exemptions from the country’s restrictive regulatory and bureaucratic culture, he answered, “Think of whatever China’s doing, and then imagine it on an American scale: a giant new subway system, a new big highway, a big transmission system, big pipelines.”

或许建成环境提供了最鲜明的对比：那些高铁线路、绵延数公里的大桥、高架道路在摩天大楼林立的城市中蜿蜒穿行。而某种潜藏的羡慕中国的情绪也推动了名为“丰裕派”的自由派改革运动。法学教授戴维·施莱歇尔是这场思潮的学术阵营核心人物，当被问及哪些基建项目能唤起美国民众足够的热情，让联邦政府得到正当理由去突破严苛的监管与官僚体系文化时，他答道：“想想中国在做的任何事，然后想象将其搬到美国的规模：大型新地铁系统、大型高速公路、大型输电网络、大型管道。”

The economic historian Adam Tooze likes to talk about the coming of a second China shock, an inverse of the first, this time with Westerners begging to be integrated into Chinese supply chains. But we may already be living through a different kind of shock, a decade long, in which American wonks and policymakers hardly know what sense to make of a rival power rising so suddenly. And seeming to humiliate the American imperium along the way.

经济史学家亚当·图兹经常谈及第二次中国冲击的到来——与第一次冲击形成鲜明反差，这一次是西方迫切希望融入中国的供应链。但我们或许正经历着另一种冲击：长达十年的迷茫期，美国政策制定者们对崛起如此迅猛的竞争对手束手无策，更目睹其在崛起过程中不断羞辱美国霸权。

In certain ways, this shock blinds us to the shortcomings of any “Chinese century” thesis. And however futuristic the cityscapes of the Pearl River Delta look, those shortcomings are many. Ironically, the American vibe shift on China is that it has taken hold just as the Chinese future has begun to look more uncertain, too.

在某些方面，这场冲击也让我们忽视了“中国世纪”论调的种种缺陷。即便珠江三角洲的城市天际线看似充满未来感，中国发展背后的问题也数不胜数。颇具讽刺意味的是，就在美国对华心态发生转变之际，中国的未来也开始充满变数。

In the big picture, China’s population is already shrinking, with recently released data showing truly shocking declines in the birthrate and some longer-term projections suggesting that by the end of the century it may not even be much larger than that of America. As the economics commentator Noah Smith suggested in response, China may have already peaked — not just for population but for “the robots, the electric cars, the bullet trains, the air taxis, the buildings covered in LEDs, the bubble tea chains and the fast fashion and the pay-with-your-face apps and Xi Jinping’s stupid book in every office.”

从宏观角度来看，中国人口已呈萎缩态势，近期公布的数据显示，生育率降幅触目惊心，一些长期预测甚至指出，本世纪末中国人口规模甚至可能仅略高于美国。经济评论员诺亚·史密斯就此声称，中国或许已经迎来了发展峰值——不仅是在人口方面，更体现在“机器人、电动汽车、高铁、空中出租车、满是LED屏的建筑、珍珠奶茶连锁店、快时尚、刷脸支付应用，以及每个办公室都摆着习近平那本愚蠢书籍”的繁荣景象上。

The Chinese economy may still be growing faster than the American one, and though nominal U.S. gross domestic product is higher, certain adjustments can make China’s economy rate out as larger. But China is growing much more slowly than it used to, even according to official data, with less official estimates looking considerably bleaker, and many structural problems obvious to observers both domestic and foreign. Progress in high-tech industries has not produced windfall profits but something like the opposite, with competition producing bankruptcies alongside innovation and shrinking margins even for surviving firms. The youth unemployment rate is terrifically high, and young Chinese adults do not seem to be ecstatic future-forward hustlers, exactly. Instead, they’re exhibiting the same Gen Z patterns familiar in the United States and across Western Europe: exhaustion, nostalgia, frustration and despair.

中国经济增速或许仍高于美国，尽管美国的名义国内生产总值更高，但经特定口径调整后，中国经济总量可能更大。但即便是根据官方数据，中国的增速也远不如从前，不那么官方的预估则更为惨淡，诸多结构性问题对国内外观察者而言都显而易见。高科技产业的发展并未带来暴利，反而呈现相反态势：市场竞争在催生创新的同时，也引发了企业破产潮，即便是存活下来的企业，利润空间也在不断萎缩。中国的青年失业率居高不下，中国年轻一代似乎并非充满激情的未来开拓者，反而呈现出与美国及西欧Z世代相似的状态：身心俱疲、沉溺怀旧、满心沮丧、陷入绝望。

And there are some intuitive explanations for the spectacular scale of Chinese infrastructure buildout that do not credit some unique Chinese advantage, cultural or otherwise. About 15 years ago China reached roughly the per capita G.D.P. threshold that the United States hit in the 1960s, during the buildout of the interstate highway system, when American know-how and state capacity made its imperious engineering the envy of the world.

对于中国基建的大规模落地，其实有一些直观的解释，无需归因于中国在文化或其他方面的独特优势。大约15年前，中国的人均国内生产总值达到了美国上世纪60年代的水平——那个时候，美国正大力建设州际高速公路系统，美国的技术实力与国家治理能力，令其宏伟的工程建设成为世界艳羡的对象。

I don’t pretend to know how it will all shake out, on the global stage or even in the halls of Washington think tanks. But after a decade of steady intensification, America’s story of its rivalry with China has taken a turn, with Beltway hysteria giving way to something more subdued, uncertain, even insecure.

我不敢妄言全球舞台乃至华盛顿智库内部的局势将如何演变。但经过十年的持续升温，美国关于中美竞争的叙事已悄然转向，华盛顿曾有的歇斯底里正被一种更为克制、充满不确定性甚至不安的情绪取代。

Two decades ago, many Americans assumed that the Beijing model could not sustain a challenge to American hegemony without collapsing under its internal contradictions and shortcomings. One decade ago, China hawks began to fret that much more needed to be done to box out the rising power. And though it still isn’t consensus and there is still plenty of competitive hysteria, over the last year we’ve begun to hear many more wondering whether the race has already been lost.

20年前，许多美国人认为，北京模式的内在矛盾与缺陷终将使其崩塌，无法对美国霸权构成持久挑战。10年前，对华强硬派开始忧心，美国需要采取更多行动，遏制这个崛起的大国。尽管如今尚未形成共识，竞争带来的歇斯底里仍大量存在，但过去一年，越来越多声音开始质疑这场竞赛是否早就是败局已定。

This shift is pretty disorienting for a country as cocky as this one, as Kuo wrote recently in the Ideas Letter, in an essay he called “The Great Reckoning.” “We have witnessed not merely the rise of another great power, but a fundamental challenge to assumptions long embedded in Western thought — about development, political systems, and civilizational achievement itself,” he wrote. “We simply haven’t yet found the intellectual courage to face it.”

正如郭怡广近期在《思想通讯》(Ideas Letter)中的一篇题为《大反思》(The Great Rechoning)的文章中所言，对于美国这样一个向来自负的国家而言，这一转变令人困惑。他写道：“我们见证的，不仅是另一个大国的崛起，更是对西方思想中根深蒂固的假设——关于发展、政治制度乃至文明成就本身——的根本性挑战，”他写道。“我们只是尚未拥有直面这一现实的思想勇气。”

Or perhaps we are just now beginning to — some growing fatalistic, others envisioning a world defined less by imperial rivalry than by balance, others by lashing out against old allies and former adversaries in a desperate performance of strength against those we remain confident we can intimidate and overwhelm.

或许，我们如今才刚刚开始直面这一现实——有人愈发陷入宿命论，有人憧憬一个不再由霸权对抗主导、而是趋于平衡的世界，还有人通过向老牌盟友与昔日对手发难，在那些我们仍确信能够威慑压倒的对象面前，上演绝望的强权表演。

A political quagmire in Taiwan has stalled plans by its President Lai Ching-te to sharply increase military spending, even as President Donald Trump has pressed the island to pay more for its own defense against China’s campaign to bring the island under its control.

台湾的政治僵局阻碍了总统赖清德大幅增加军费的计划，尽管美国总统特朗普正敦促该岛为自身防务承担更多费用，以抵御中国将其纳入控制范围的行动。

Opposition lawmakers who dominate the legislature have blocked Mr. Lai’s ambitious proposal to spend $40 billion across eight years on military equipment from moving forward without concessions from Mr. Lai.

在立法机构占主导地位的反对党立法者阻止了赖清德提出的在八年内花费400亿美元购买军事装备的雄心提案，如果赖清德不做出让步，该提案将无法推进。

For Taiwan, the impasse has implications beyond just a domestic political fight. It could raise questions about Taiwan’s ability to strengthen its defenses at a time when Mr. Trump is urging America’s allies and partners to shoulder more of the burden for their own security. Mr. Lai has pledged to lift military and security outlays to more than 3 percent of Taiwan’s economy this year to mollify the United States, the island’s chief security backer against Beijing.

对台湾而言，这场僵局的影响远不止于国内政治斗争。在特朗普敦促美国盟友和伙伴为自身安全承担更多责任之际，这可能引发外界质疑台湾增强防卫的能力。赖清德承诺今年将军事与安全支出提升至台湾经济总量的3%以上，以安抚美国——台湾对抗北京的主要安全后盾。

But Mr. Lai’s plan is caught in a tangle of budgetary and legal disputes between his party and the opposition parties. Both sides have used hardball tactics and accused each other of acting unlawfully.

但赖清德的计划陷入其政党与在野党之间的预算与法律纠纷漩涡。双方均采取强硬手段，互相指责对方违法行事。

Breaking with longstanding practice, Mr. Lai’s premier refused to sign off on a law passed by the opposition-controlled legislature that would shift some tax revenues from the central government to local administrations. Opposition lawmakers, in turn, denounced the premier’s move to stymie the revenue law as unconstitutional. They have also called Mr. Lai a dictator and moved to impeach him, an effort that is largely symbolic.

赖清德的行政院长打破了长期惯例，拒绝签署反对党控制的立法机构通过的一项法律，该法律将把部分税收从中央政府转移到地方政府。反对党议员谴责行政院长阻挠税收法的举动违宪。他们还称赖清德为独裁者，并提出了弹劾他的动议，但此举很大程度上只是象征性的。

“We have never experienced such a massive crisis of constitutional rule of law as we have right now,” Weng Hsiao-ling, a lawmaker from the Nationalist Party, the main opposition party, said in an interview. “Executive power is not operating according to the law.”

“我们从来没有一刻是像现在这个时间点，遇到这么大的一个宪政法治的危机，”主要反对党国民党的立法者翁晓玲在接受采访时说。“行政权不依法行政。”

Members of Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, for their part, say that the opposition is trying to paralyze his administration. They accuse some opposition politicians of taking their cues from Beijing and of endangering Taiwan’s security by holding up defense spending. They are frustrated that the opposition has twice rejected Mr. Lai’s nominations to Taiwan’s constitutional court, effectively sidelining the body that could help defuse such disputes.

赖清德所属的民进党成员则指责在野党企图瘫痪政府运作。他们控诉部分在野党人士受北京指使，通过阻挠国防预算案危及台湾安全。在野党两度否决赖清德提名的人选进入台湾宪法院，使这个本可化解此类争议的机构形同虚设，令民进党深感沮丧。

Su Chiao-hui, a lawmaker from the Democratic Progressive Party, said that the opposition’s blocking of nominees damaged Taiwan’s ability to resolve conflicts. “They changed the rules, and the referee is gone,” she said.

民进党籍立法委员苏巧慧指出，反对党阻挠提名损害了台湾解决冲突的能力。“我们本来是两队要上场比赛，现在比赛没有规则了啊，”她说。

The friction reflects growing divisions in Taiwan over whether to hold tight to its relationship with the United States or try rapprochement with Beijing.

这种摩擦反映出台湾内部日益加剧的分歧：究竟该紧抓与美国的关系，还是尝试与北京和解。

Mr. Lai’s party says that Taiwan is its own country, and stronger defense and deeper ties with the United States are the way to protect Taiwan against China.

赖清德所属政党主张台湾是一个国家，认为加强国防和深化美台关系是抵御中国的途径。

The Nationalist Party, however, favors expanded ties with Beijing. Some of its leaders, including its chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, have suggested that Mr. Lai’s strategy will escalate tensions with China. They have said that they generally support military spending to protect Taiwan, but have emphasized their skepticism about Mr. Lai’s plans.

而国民党主张扩大与北京的联系。包括主席郑丽文在内的部分领袖认为赖清德的策略将加剧与中国的紧张关系。他们表示原则上支持军事支出以保卫台湾，但强调对赖清德的计划持怀疑态度。

“There’s an increasingly clear partisan divide of perception in Taiwan in terms of views of the U.S., views of China,” said Wei-ting Yen, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a Taiwanese research academy.

台湾研究机构中央研究院政治学者颜维婷说：“台湾对美国和中国的看法正呈现越来越明显的党派分歧。”

Tensions between the two sides grew last year after Mr. Lai’s party backed a recall campaign to oust dozens of Nationalist Party legislators, which ultimately failed.

去年，赖清德的政党支持罢免数十名国民党议员的运动，但该运动最终失败，两党关系日趋紧张。

Nationalist lawmakers are not in a “terribly good mood to make further compromises with Lai,” said Alexander C. Huang, an international security expert who was formerly that party’s director of international affairs.

曾任国民党国际事务主任的国际安全专家黄介正说，国民党议员“无意与赖清德进一步妥协”。

Opposition lawmakers have blocked deliberations on Mr. Lai’s military spending plan, as well as the annual budget, demanding, among other things, that Mr. Lai first appear before the legislature for questioning. The opposition has also pointed to what it says are unacceptably long delays in deliveries of U.S. weapons, including F-16 fighter jets.

反对党议员阻挠对赖清德军费计划和年度预算的审议，要求赖清德首先到立法院接受质询。反对党还指出，包括F-16战斗机在内的美国武器的交付时间拖得太长，令人无法接受。

“We’ve paid up, but the weapons are nowhere to be seen,” Fu Kun-chi, a Nationalist Party leader, said last month. “We support national defense, but don’t support being fleeced in arms purchases.”

“当钱已经付掉，武器却遥遥无期，”国民党领导人傅崐萁上个月说。“再次强调支持国防，但不支持凯子军购。”

Compromise may still be possible. The Nationalists have pushed for more public disclosure of details; the government has said that revealing some details would compromise security, but gave lawmakers a private briefing this week and released more information.

妥协仍有可能。国民党要求增加细节公开力度；政府则表示，披露一些细节会危及安全，但本周向立法者进行了非公开通报，并公布了更多信息。

The U.S. representative in Taipei, Raymond Greene, has backed Mr. Lai’s military spending proposals and urged the parties to work together, while the State Department pledged to work with industry to deliver equipment more quickly.

美国驻台北代表谷立言(Raymond Greene)支持赖清德的军费提案，敦促各方合作，而美国国务院承诺将与产业界合作加快装备交付。

Some officials from Taiwan’s governing party hope that lawmakers from a smaller opposition party, the Taiwan People’s Party, will break with the Nationalists, giving Mr. Lai the votes to pass his plans. He appears buoyed after Taiwan and Washington signed a framework agreement to reduce Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

台湾执政党部分官员期待较小在野党台湾民众党的议员能与国民党决裂，为赖清德的计划争取通过所需票数。随着台美签署降低特朗普关税的框架协议，赖清德似乎十分振奋。

Washington may increase pressure on the opposition, aware that a public breach with the United States would be politically fraught for any party in Taiwan.

华盛顿可能加大对在野党的施压力度，因为它知道，在台湾，任何政党若公开与美国决裂都将面临政治风险。

“The opposition Nationalists naturally hope to keep a balance between China and the U.S.,” said Su Tzu-chiao, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei, “but they cannot directly oppose the U.S.”

台北东吴大学政治学者苏子乔指出：“在野国民党当然就是希望跟中国跟美国维持一个平衡，他不可能跟美国直接对立。”

President Trump on Tuesday escalated tensions with the United States’ longest allies, meeting diplomatic overtures with mocking online posts and threats of economic levies and territorial expansion, just hours before he was set to meet with European counterparts in the Swiss Alps.

周二，特朗普总统令美国与老牌盟友们之间的紧张关系再度升级，在瑞士阿尔卑斯山区与欧洲各国领导人会面的数小时前，他以嘲讽性的帖文回应对方的外交示好，还接连发出征收经济关税、推行领土扩张的威胁。

Mr. Trump warned that he would impose a new round of tariffs against European nations unless they acquiesced to his demands that the United States take over Greenland. He invited President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who European leaders have sought to isolate to counter his invasion of Ukraine, to join his new “board of peace” to reconstruct Gaza. He shared a post on social media that claimed China and Russia were simply “boogeymen” and that the United Nations and NATO were “the real threat.”

特朗普警告，除非欧洲各国默许美国接管格陵兰岛的要求，否则他将对欧洲国家加征新一轮关税。他邀请俄罗斯总统普京加入其为重建加沙新成立的“和平委员会”——欧洲领导人此前为反击俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，一直试图孤立普京。他还在社交媒体转发一则帖文，贴文称中俄不过是西方“假想的妖怪”，而联合国和北约才是“真正的威胁”。

The president even posted the private text messages of European leaders trying to strike conciliatory notes, and shared a computer-generated image of himself planting a flag on Greenland. “GREENLAND, US TERRITORY, EST. 2026,” read a wooden placard in the image.

总统甚至公布了欧洲各国领导人试图表达和解之意的私人短信，分享了一张电脑合成图：图中的他在格陵兰岛插上旗帜，一旁的木牌写着“格陵兰，美国领土，确立于2026年”。

And when asked how far he was willing to go to acquire Greenland, Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House: “You’ll find out.”

当被问及他愿采取何种极端手段夺取格陵兰岛时，特朗普在白宫对记者表示：“你们会知道的。”

The bellicose statements and threats, just days before Mr. Trump was set to meet European leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, amounted to an extraordinary provocation of some of the United States’ closest allies.

距离特朗普赴瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛、与欧洲领导人会面仅剩数日之际，此番好斗的言论与威胁无异于对美国部分亲密盟友发起了一次异乎寻常的挑衅。

The president’s aggressive posture has effectively transformed what traditionally has been a brainstorming session among leaders of the world’s wealthiest countries into a showdown between a president emboldened over his power on the global stage and European heads of state concerned that the trans-Atlantic diplomatic alignment may be on the brink.

总统的强硬姿态已然将这场传统上由全球富国领导人参与的头脑风暴会议变成了一场对决：一方是在国际舞台上愈发恃权妄为的美国总统，另一方则是担忧跨大西洋外交同盟濒临破裂的欧洲各国元首。

“The Europeans are — they’re perplexed,” said Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm. “They’re worried.”

“欧洲人现在满心困惑，”全球顶尖政治风险研究咨询机构欧亚集团总裁兼创始人伊恩·布雷默说。“他们忧心忡忡。”

Mr. Bremmer, who is attending the Davos conference, added: “The feeling of crisis that this could actually be — unless Trump is prepared to back down — that this could reflect the end of NATO.”

正在达沃斯参会的布雷默还说：“人们有种危机感——除非特朗普准备让步，否则这一切或许真的意味着北约的终结。”

Mr. Trump has so far refused to say — or rule out — whether he would use military force to take control of Greenland. But even before he boarded Air Force One on Tuesday night to travel to Switzerland, his penchant for unpredictability loomed over Davos.

截至目前，特朗普始终拒绝表态，也没有排除动用军事力量掌控格陵兰岛的可能性。而即便在周二晚间登上“空军一号”前往瑞士前，他那难以预测的行事风格就已经为此次达沃斯会议蒙上阴影。

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump linked his push for Greenland to not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, telling Norway’s prime minister in a text message that he no longer felt obliged to “think purely of Peace.”

上周末，特朗普还将自己执意夺取格陵兰岛的举动与自己未获诺贝尔和平奖挂钩。他在给挪威首相的短信中称，自己不再觉得有义务“一心只想着和平”。

“I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States,” Mr. Trump said in the message.

“自北约成立以来，我为其做出的贡献远超任何人，现在，北约也该为美国做点事了，”特朗普在短信中写道。

And on Tuesday, Mr. Trump questioned whether NATO could be trusted to come to the aid of the United States, even though the alliance has only invoked Article 5 of its founding treaty, which holds that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all, once — after the Sept. 11 attacks.

周二，特朗普甚至质疑北约是否值得信任，是否能够援助美国——尽管该同盟成立条约中的第五条（对任一盟友的攻击均视为对所有盟友的攻击）仅被启用过一次，就是在9·11恐袭之后。

Mr. Trump’s threats of tariffs to pressure European leaders to agree to a sale of Greenland has prompted the allies, including some that will be in attendance at Davos, to contemplate retaliating with economic penalties.

特朗普以关税相逼，要求欧洲领导人同意出售格陵兰岛，这一行为已促使包括部分达沃斯参会国在内的盟友考虑用经济制裁反击。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters in Davos on Monday that it would be “unwise” for the European leaders to do so.

财政部长贝森特周一在达沃斯对记者表示，欧洲领导人若采取反制措施将是“不明智的”。

Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that he had “a lot of meetings scheduled on Greenland” and that he thought he would “work something out where NATO is going to be very happy and where we’re going to be very happy.”

特朗普周二称，他已在达沃斯“安排了多场关于格陵兰岛的会谈”，并认为自己“能达成让北约非常满意、也让我们非常满意的方案”。

World leaders in Davos appeared to acknowledge a new reality with the United States: that under Mr. Trump, they can no longer rely on a longtime ally. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, suggested Tuesday that the European Union would take steps to bolster its security in light of the crisis, and would look at “how to strengthen our security partnerships with partners such as the U.K., Canada, Norway, Iceland and others.”

出席达沃斯论坛的各国领导人似乎都已接受与美国相关的全新现实：在特朗普治下，他们再也无法依靠这个长期盟友。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩周二表示，欧盟将针对当前危机采取措施强化自身安全，并将研究“如何深化与英国、加拿大、挪威、冰岛等国的安全伙伴关系”。

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada put it bluntly at the summit on Tuesday. “Let me be direct: We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition,” he said.

加拿大总理卡尼周二在峰会上直言：“我直说吧：我们正身处一场决裂之中，而非简单的转型。”

He added: “Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion.”

他还说：“各大国已开始将经济一体化当作武器，将关税当作筹码，将金融基础设施当作胁迫手段。”

President Emmanuel Macron of France described “a shift towards a world without rules where international law is trampled” and “imperial ambitions are resurfacing.” The United States, he said, had openly aimed to “weaken and subordinate Europe.”

法国总统马克龙称，世界正走向“一个规则荡然无存、国际法遭践踏的时代”，“帝国野心正重新抬头。”他表示，美国已公然将“削弱并支配欧洲”作为目标。

Mr. Macron said he would respond by pushing for “more sovereignty and more autonomy for the Europeans.”

马克龙称，他将推动“欧洲实现更高程度的主权与自主”来应对。

Throughout his political career, Mr. Trump has lashed out at longtime allies, imposed tariffs on trading partners and brushed aside the post-World War II global order. But emboldened by the U.S. military capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, Mr. Trump now appears determined to go further and pursue a territorial expansion that could doom the nearly 80-year-old diplomatic alliance that has been the centerpiece of a united Western front.

在其政治生涯中，特朗普曾抨击老牌盟友、对贸易伙伴加征关税、无视二战后建立的全球秩序。而在美国军队抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，特朗普愈发有恃无恐，如今更是决意更进一步，推行领土扩张——这一行为可能摧毁近80年来作为西方统一阵线核心的外交联盟。

Mr. Trump is trying to force a sale of Greenland even though the majority Indigenous territory has said that it is not for purchase. Its leader said last week that Greenlanders would rather stay part of the Danish kingdom, its former colonizer, than join the Americans. Mr. Trump has said that obtaining Greenland is a national security imperative, and top administration officials have expressed desire for the territory’s natural resources.

特朗普正试图强行促成格陵兰岛出售，尽管这个原住民占多数的地区已明确表示拒绝。格陵兰岛领导人上周称，格陵兰民众宁愿留在前殖民宗主国丹麦王国版图内，也不愿加入美国。特朗普则称，夺取格陵兰岛是美国国家安全的迫切需求，美国政府高层官员也多次表达对该地区丰富自然资源的兴趣。

When asked about Greenlanders not wanting to become part of the United States, Mr. Trump said: “When I speak to them, I’m sure they’ll be thrilled.”

当被问及格陵兰民众不愿成为美国一部分时，特朗普表示：“等我和他们谈谈，我相信他们会很高兴的。”

Last week, NATO allies deployed military personnel to Greenland in a gesture of solidarity. The question now is what will follow.

上周，北约盟友已向格陵兰岛派遣军事人员，以示声援。如今的问题是，后续还将发生什么。

“There are people here who are openly talking about their expectation that the president will be sending military forces to Greenland,” said Michael Froman, a Davos attendee and the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. think thank. “That is an option that people think is very much on the table.”

“有人公开表示预计总统将向格陵兰岛派遣军队，”智库美国外交关系协会会长、达沃斯参会者迈克尔·弗罗曼说。“人们认为，这一选项已被摆上桌面。”

Some European leaders did not wait for Mr. Trump’s arrival to try to dissuade him from such an escalation. Hours before he boarded a flight to the summit, Mr. Trump posted a private text message from Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, who sought to flatter the U.S. president, calling him “dear Donald” and telling him that he was “committed to finding a way forward on Greenland.”

部分欧洲领导人未等特朗普抵达，便试图劝阻其进一步升级事态。在特朗普登机前往达沃斯的数小时前，他发布了北约秘书长吕特发来的私人短信——吕特在短信中极力讨好特朗普，称其为“亲爱的唐纳德”，并表示自己“致力于为格陵兰岛问题寻找解决方案”。

“Thank you to Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO!” Mr. Trump posted in response.

“感谢北约秘书长马克·吕特！”特朗普发帖回应。

Mr. Trump was less gracious to Mr. Macron, using the opportunity to pressure France to join his “board of peace” for Gaza. Mr. Macron does not plan to join, according to a senior French official.

而对马克龙，特朗普态度冷淡，还借机施压法国，要求其加入自己为加沙成立的“和平委员会”。据法国一名高级官员透露，马克龙无意加入。

Asked on Monday about France’s refusal, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 200 percent tariff on French wine, one of the country’s best-known exports.

周一被问及法国的拒绝态度时，特朗普威胁将对法国葡萄酒加征200%的关税，葡萄酒是法国最知名的出口商品之一。

Online, Mr. Trump posted private messages from Mr. Macron, who called him “my friend” but told him, “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland.” Mr. Macron offered to host Mr. Trump for a meeting with other world leaders in Paris after the summit in Davos, and then a dinner before he returns to Washington.

特朗普还在网上发布了马克龙的私人短信，后者在短信中称特朗普为“我的朋友”，却表示“我无法理解你在格陵兰岛问题上的所作所为”。马克龙还提议，在达沃斯峰会结束后，邀请特朗普赴巴黎与其他世界领导人会晤，而后在特朗普返回华盛顿前共进晚餐。

Early Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that he had agreed to meet with foreign leaders in Davos to discuss Greenland.

周二凌晨，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，他已同意在达沃斯与各国领导人会面，商讨格陵兰岛问题。

“There can be no going back,” Mr. Trump said. “On that, everyone agrees!”

“这事没有回头路，”特朗普说。“这一点，所有人都认同！”

It also appeared to be what some leaders in Davos had feared.

而这似乎也正是部分达沃斯领导人最担心的局面。