Neat rows of Chinese currency bills sit behind glass at the center of the national security gallery inside Hong Kong’s Museum of History, along with model fighter jets, attack helicopters and vials of rare-earth metals.

在香港历史博物馆的国家安全展厅中心，玻璃柜后整齐地陈列着一叠叠人民币纸币，旁边还有战斗机模型、武装直升机以及装有稀土金属的小瓶。

Set with instruments of war and trade, the display underscores a central idea: The internationalization of its currency, the renminbi, is considered a pillar of China’s national security.

这组集战争工具与贸易手段于一体的展品凸显了一个核心理念：人民币的国际化被视为中国国家安全的重要支柱。

Despite its rise as an economic superpower, China remains reliant on a global financial system anchored by the dollar. Turning the renminbi into a globally accepted currency would let Beijing conduct more trade on its own terms and blunt a longstanding source of American leverage.

尽管中国已崛起为经济超级大国，但仍依赖于以美元为锚的全球金融体系。将人民币转变为全球公认的货币将使北京能够按照自己的条件开展更多贸易，并削弱美国长期以来的杠杆。

That push has gained momentum from the wars in Ukraine and Iran, as sanctions drive American adversaries toward the renminbi to bypass the Western financial system. In effect, China’s 20-year project to build the international financial ties and technological infrastructure for a globally accepted currency is paying off, even if others are the ones sidestepping the dollar.

乌克兰和伊朗的战争进一步推动了这一进程，制裁正迫使美国的对手转而使用人民币，以绕过西方金融体系。事实上，中国为建立全球认可货币所需的国际金融纽带和技术基础设施而进行的这项计划已耗时20年，如今正在产生回报，即使目前主要是其他国家在利用它来规避美元。

China’s financial positioning is “meeting the demand for de-dollarization” from countries seeking to trade with restricted nations like Iran, said Alisha Chhangani, an associate director at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

华盛顿智库大西洋理事会副总监阿丽莎·昌加尼表示，中国的金融布局正在“满足那些寻求与伊朗等受限国家进行贸易的国家的去美元化需求”。

Since the end of World War II, when 44 countries agreed to make the dollar the world’s reserve currency, most global trade has run on it. That dominance has given the United States powerful leverage, allowing it to impose sanctions that can all but ensure financial ruin.

自二战结束、44国同意将美元定为世界储备货币以来，大多数全球贸易都以美元结算。这种主导地位赋予了美国强大的影响力，通过制裁，美国能够几乎确保对方在金融上陷入绝境。

Recent conflicts have shown how a Chinese alternative can offer a way around the system. At least two ships have paid Iran in renminbi to secure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime information service.

近期的冲突表明，中国的替代方案可以提供一条绕过该体系的路径。据航运情报服务机构劳氏情报称，至少已有两艘船只向伊朗支付人民币，以确保安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。

Payments using China’s network rose nearly 50 percent last month as countries bought Iranian oil, according to data from the Atlantic Council. Russia, cut off from the dollar after invading Ukraine, now settles most of its trade with China in renminbi.

根据大西洋理事会的数据，随着各国购买伊朗石油，上个月使用中国支付网络的结算量增长了近50%。而俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰被切断美元渠道，目前与中国的大部分贸易都使用人民币结算。

In March, Qiushi, the Chinese Communist Party’s ideological journal, resurfaced a 2024 speech by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, calling for the renminbi to be “widely used in international trade” and to “attain reserve currency status.”

今年3月，中国共产党的意识形态刊物《求是》重刊了中国领导人习近平在2024年的一次讲话，呼吁人民币在“国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用”，并取得“储备货币地位”。

The dollar is still the top currency of choice in international trade, valued for its liquidity and ease of use. The euro, yen and British pound are distant runners-up. Even transactions that do not involve the United States are often done with dollars, including most of China’s own trade. The renminbi accounts for just 3 percent of global transactions, roughly the same as the Canadian dollar.

目前，美元仍是国际贸易的首选货币，因其流动性和易用性而备受青睐。欧元、日元和英镑则远远落后。即使不涉及美国的交易（包括中国自身的大部分贸易）也通常使用美元。人民币仅占全球交易量的3%，与加元大致持平。

China’s tight financial controls have long held back the renminbi’s global use, making it less attractive to hold. Capital flows are tightly managed. Citizens can move only limited sums abroad each year, and foreign investors face strict quotas and must obtain approvals to buy Chinese stocks and bonds.

长期以来，中国严格的金融管制限制了人民币的全球使用，使其作为持有资产的吸引力大打折扣。资本流动受到严格管理，公民每年向境外转移资金的数额有限，而外国投资者则面临严格的配额限制，且必须获得批准才能购买中国股票和债券。

But China doesn’t need to displace the dollar to move closer to escaping America’s financial grip, said Edward Fishman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Simply having an alternative system in place for emergencies is enough to weaken Washington’s chokehold on global finance.

但美国对外关系委员会研究员爱德华·菲什曼指出，中国不需要取代美元就能接近摆脱美国的金融钳制。只要有一套备用的替代系统以应对紧急情况，就足以削弱华盛顿对全球金融的扼制。

Beijing has gone to extraordinary lengths to insulate itself from geopolitical shocks, building stockpiles of oil, gas and critical materials. It even maintains a strategic reserve of pork, a staple of the nation’s diet. In the same vein, China has spent decades developing a parallel financial infrastructure that operates outside the dollar system.

北京已采取非同寻常的措施来防范地缘政治冲击，包括建立石油、天然气和关键材料的储备，甚至还设有国家重要食品猪肉的战略储备。同样，中国数十年来一直在开发一套运行在美元体系之外的平行金融基础设施。

Beginning in the 2000s, China signed currency-swap agreements with dozens of central banks, giving trading partners access to the renminbi without going through the dollar-based system. These so-called swap lines, totaling roughly $600 billion, provide emergency liquidity and could expand China’s influence in a financial crisis.

从2000年代开始，中国与数十家央行签署了货币互换协议，使贸易伙伴无需通过美元系统即可获得人民币。这些总额约为6000亿美元的所谓互换额度提供了应急流动性，并能在金融危机中扩大中国的影响力。

In 2015, China launched the Cross-border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, allowing banks worldwide to settle payments in renminbi. The system offers an alternative to SWIFT, the Belgian-based messaging network that underpins most global transactions. Both Russian and Iranian banks have been kicked off SWIFT under U.S. pressure.

2015年，中国启动了人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)，允许全球银行以人民币结算支付。该系统提供了SWIFT之外的另一种选择，后者是支撑全球绝大多数交易的比利时通讯网络。在美方的压力下，俄罗斯和伊朗的银行都已被踢出SWIFT。

Since Russian banks were removed from SWIFT after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the number of institutions directly participating in CIPS has nearly tripled, rising to nearly 200 from 75, according to Chinese government data.

据中国政府数据显示，自2022年俄罗斯银行因全面入侵乌克兰被移出SWIFT以来，直接参与CIPS的机构数量已从75家增至近200家，接近原来的三倍。

Money flowing through China’s financial plumbing has surged since the war in Iran forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, according to the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Countries desperate for oil are increasingly using the Chinese network to pay for internationally restricted crude outside the dollar system.

大西洋理事会地缘经济中心称，自伊朗战争迫使霍尔木兹海峡（全球约20%石油流经的重要航道）关闭以来，流向中国金融系统的资金激增。急需石油的国家正越来越多地利用中国网络在美元体系之外支付受国际限制的原油。

From February to March, the average daily payments rose to more than $131 billion a day from $86 billion, while the average transaction size increased over 8 percent, according to data from the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Shanghai Securities News, a state-owned newspaper, attributed the growth in use to “continued uncertainty in the Middle East.”

大西洋理事会地缘经济中心的数据显示，从2月到3月，平均日支付额从860亿美元增至超过1310亿美元，平均交易规模增长了8%以上。中国国有的《上海证券报》将这一增长归因于“持续震荡的中东局势”。

“The uptick has to be other countries in Asia that are switching to usage in this moment” to buy restricted oil, said Josh Lipsky, the director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council.

“这种回升势头必然源于亚洲其他国家当前正在转向”使用人民币来购买受限石油，大西洋理事会地缘经济中心主任乔什·利普斯基表示。

Major hurdles remain for the renminbi to challenge the dollar’s dominance, said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University.

康奈尔大学经济学教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，人民币要挑战美元的主导地位仍面临重大障碍。

For the currency to play a larger global role, it must be easier to use outside China, which requires loosening Beijing’s tight capital flow controls. The government has been reluctant to take that step for fear of losing control of its exchange rate. Without that opening, there is not enough renminbi circulating abroad for trading partners to do much beyond buying Chinese goods, Mr. Prasad said.

要使人民币发挥更大的全球作用，它必须在境外更容易被使用，这需要北京放宽严格的资本流动管制。由于担心失去对汇率的控制，中国政府一直不愿采取这一步。普拉萨德表示，如果不开放，境外流通的人民币就不够多，贸易伙伴除了购买中国商品外，无法开展更多业务。

When countries like Saudi Arabia sell their oil for dollars, they can easily recycle those proceeds into liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. With renminbi, there is no equivalent yet.

当沙特阿拉伯等国以美元出售石油时，他们可以轻易将收益转为美国国债等流动资产，而人民币目前还没有同等的途径。

So far, China has taken small but meaningful steps toward strengthening its cross-border payment system. It is still unclear whether China is truly on a “durable path” to becoming a major global payments currency, Mr. Prasad said. But one thing is clear: “There is a desperate desire in the world to escape the clutches of the dollar-denominated system.”

到目前为止，中国在加强跨境支付系统方面采取了虽然微小但具有意义的步骤。普拉萨德认为，目前尚不清楚中国是否真正走上了成为主要全球支付货币的“持久路径”，但有一点是明确的：“世界各国都迫切希望摆脱美元计价体系的束缚。”

Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year.

自伊朗战争于2月下旬爆发以来，美国已消耗了约1100枚为与中国开战而制造的远程隐身巡航导弹，接近剩余库存的总量。军方还发射了1000多枚“战斧”巡航导弹，这大约是其目前年采购量的10倍。

The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million a pop, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.

根据国防部内部评估和国会官员的说法，五角大楼在这场战争中使用了1200多枚“爱国者”拦截导弹（每枚成本超过400万美元）以及1000多枚“精确打击”和“陆军战术导弹系统”(ATACMS)等陆基导弹，致使库存水平降至令人担忧的低点。

The Iran war has significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions, and forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles and other hardware to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe. The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to confront potential adversaries like Russia and China, and it has forced the United States to find ways to scale up production to address the depletions, Trump administration and congressional officials say.

特朗普政府及国会官员表示，伊朗战争已大量消耗了美军在全球范围内的弹药库存，并迫使五角大楼紧急从亚洲和欧洲的司令部向中东调运炸弹、导弹及其他武器装备。这种调拨导致各地区司令部应对俄罗斯和中国等潜在对手的准备能力下降，同时也迫使美国寻求扩大生产以填补库存空缺。

The conflict has also underscored the Pentagon’s overreliance on excessively expensive missiles and munitions, especially air-defense interceptors, as well as concerns about whether the defense industry can develop cheaper arms, especially attack drones, far more quickly.

此次冲突也凸显了五角大楼对价格过于昂贵的导弹和弹药（特别是防空拦截弹）的过度依赖，并引发了人们对国防工业能否更快地开发出更廉价武器（尤其是攻击无人机）的担忧。

The Defense Department has not disclosed how many munitions it used in 38 days of war before a cease-fire took effect two weeks ago. The Pentagon says it hit more than 13,000 targets, but officials say that figure masks the vast number of bombs and missiles it used because warplanes, attack planes and artillery typically strike large targets multiple times.

国防部尚未披露停火生效前这38天的战争所使用的弹药数量。五角大楼称其打击了超过1.3万个目标，但官员们表示，这一数字掩盖了实际使用的庞大炸弹和导弹数量，因为战机、攻击性飞机和火炮通常会对大型目标实施多次打击。

White House officials have refused to estimate the cost of the conflict so far, but two independent groups say the expense is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, or just under $1 billion a day.

白宫官员迄今拒绝估算冲突成本，但两个独立研究机构称费用惊人：在280亿至350亿美元之间，相当于日均消耗近10亿美元。

In the first two days alone, defense officials have told lawmakers, the military used $5.6 billion of munitions.

国防官员告诉国会议员，仅在最初的两天，军方就消耗了56亿美元的弹药。

To restore the U.S. global stockpile to its previous size, the United States will have to make tough choices about where to maintain its military strength in the meantime. “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week.

为将美国全球库存恢复到原有水平，美国在此期间不得不就如何维持其军事力量做出艰难抉择。参议院军事委员会首席民主党议员、罗德岛州参议员杰克·里德本周表示：“以目前的生产速度，补充已消耗的弹药可能需要数年时间。”

“The United States has many munitions with adequate inventories, but some critical ground-attack and missile-defense munitions were short before the war and are even shorter now,” said Mark F. Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which recently published a study estimating the status of key munitions.

美国海军陆战队退役上校、战略与国际研究中心高级顾问马克·F·坎西安指出：“美军虽有许多弹药库存充足，但部分关键对地攻击和导弹防御弹药在战前就已短缺，目前缺口更大了。”该中心近期发布了一份研究报告，评估了关键弹药的库存状况。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement that “the entire premise of this story is false.” She added: “The United States of America has the most powerful military in the world, fully loaded with more than enough weapons and munitions, in stockpiles here at home and all around the globe, to effectively defend the homeland and achieve any military operation directed by the commander in chief.”

白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·利维特发表声明称：“这篇报道的前提完全错误。”她补充道：“美国拥有世界上最强大的军队，在国内及全球储备的武器弹药足以有效保卫国土，并完成总司令指挥的任何军事行动。”

Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, declined to comment on “any specific theater requirements or detail our global resource capabilities,” citing operational security.

五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔以作战安全为由拒绝就“任何特定战区需求或全球资源能力详情”置评。

Some Republicans, including Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chairman of the subcommittee that funds the Pentagon, have pressed for an increase in spending on munitions production over several administrations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made that goal a top priority during his tenure.

包括参议院负责向五角大楼拨款的小组委员会的主席、肯塔基州参议员米奇·麦康奈尔在内，一些共和党人多年来一直呼吁增加弹药生产拨款。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯也已将此目标列为其任期内的首要任务。

Making things more perilous for the Pentagon, officials say, is that the Defense Department is waiting for Congress to approve additional funding before it can pay weapons manufacturers to replenish the depleted American supply. In January, the administration announced that it had secured seven-year agreements with major defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin, to increase production capacity for defense systems like missile interceptors.

官员们称，令五角大楼处境更加严峻的是，国防部正在等待国会批准额外拨款，才能向武器制造商支付费用以补充美国耗尽的库存。今年1月，政府宣布已与洛克希德·马丁等主要国防承包商达成七年期协议，以提升导弹拦截系统等防御武器的产能。

In the meantime, the military is using its existing weapons supplies at steep rates to meet Central Command’s immediate needs in the Iran war. Certain munition levels are shrinking faster than others.

与此同时，军方正在以惊人的速度消耗现有武器库存，以满足中央司令部在伊朗战争中的紧急需求。某些弹药的库存水平正在以比其他物资更快的速度缩减。

The Pentagon, for example, has committed most of its inventory of stealthy, long-range cruise missiles to the fight against Iran. These missiles, called Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range, or JASSM-ER, are launched from fighters and bombers and have a range of more than 600 miles. They are designed to penetrate hard targets outside the range of enemy air defenses.

例如，五角大楼已将其大部分远程隐身巡航导弹库存投入到对伊朗的作战中。这些被称为“联合空对地防区外导弹-增程型”(JASSM-ER)的导弹由战斗机和轰炸机发射，射程超过600英里，用于在敌方防空火力圈外发射，打击坚固目标。

Since the war started, the military has used about 1,100 JASSM-ER missiles, which cost roughly $1.1 million apiece, leaving roughly 1,500 in the military’s inventories, according to internal Pentagon estimates, a U.S. military official and a congressional official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential combat assessments.

根据五角大楼内部评估、一名美军官员和一名国会官员（他们因涉及机密作战评估而要求匿名）的说法，自战争开始以来，军方已使用了约1100枚JASSM-ER导弹（每枚成本约110万美元），库存中大约还剩1500枚。

Tomahawks, which cost about $3.6 million each, are long-range cruise missiles that have been widely used for U.S. warfighting since the first Persian Gulf War in 1991. They remain a key munition for potential future wars, including one in Asia.

“战斧”巡航导弹（每枚成本约360万美元）是一种远程巡航导弹，自1991年第一次海湾战争以来一直被美军广泛用于作战，并且仍是包括可能在亚洲发生的战争在内的未来潜在冲突中的关键弹药。

“While sufficient munitions exist to wage this war, high expenditure of Tomahawks and other missiles in Operation Epic Fury creates risks for the United States in other theaters — particularly the Western Pacific,” concluded a C.S.I.S. study, which estimated the remaining Tomahawk stockpiles to be around 3,000 missiles.

战略与国际研究中心的一项研究得出结论：“尽管有足够弹药支持这场战争，但‘史诗愤怒’行动中战斧及其他导弹的高消耗率给美国在其他战区（尤其是西太平洋）带来了风险。”该研究估计，“战斧”导弹的剩余库存约为3000枚。

Patriot interceptor missiles can cost nearly $4 million each. The United States produced about 600 of them in all of 2025. More than 1,200 have been used in the war so far, according to internal Pentagon estimates and congressional officials.

“爱国者”拦截导弹每枚成本近400万美元。美国在2025年全年共生产了约600枚。根据五角大楼内部评估和国会官员的说法，截至目前，战争中已使用了超过1200枚。

Overall, the cost of the war so far is between $25 billion and $35 billion, according to a study this month by the American Enterprise Institute compiled by Elaine McCusker, a senior Pentagon official during the first Trump administration. Mr. Cancian of C.S.I.S. said in an email that he and his analysts put the cost of the conflict so far at about $28 billion.

总体而言，根据美国企业研究所本月发布的一份研究报告（由特朗普第一任期内的五角大楼高级官员伊莱恩·麦卡斯克汇编），截至目前战争的总体成本在250亿至350亿美元之间。战略与国际研究中心的坎西安在一封电子邮件中表示，他及其分析师将此次冲突截至目前的总成本估算为约280亿美元。

All regional military commanders are feeling the strain of shrinking munitions stocks.

所有地区的军事指挥官都感受到了弹药库存缩减的压力。

In Europe, the war has led to depletions in weapons systems critical for defending the eastern flank of NATO from Russian aggression, according to Pentagon information reviewed by The New York Times.

根据《纽约时报》审阅的五角大楼文件，在欧洲，这场战争已导致用于防御北约东翼免受俄罗斯侵略的关键武器系统库存枯竭。

A problem described as serious was the loss of surveillance and attack drones. The demands of the Iran war have also curtailed exercises and training. According to military officials, this hurts the ability to mount offensive operations in Europe, as well as deterrence of potential Russian attacks.

一个被描述为严重的问题是监视和攻击无人机的损失。伊朗战争的需求还减少了演习和训练。据军方官员称，这损害了在欧洲发动进攻行动的能力，以及对潜在俄罗斯攻击的威慑力。

But the biggest impact has been on troops in Asia.

但受影响最大的是在亚洲的部队。

Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Since then, two Marine Expeditionary Units, each with about 2,200 Marines, have been sent to the Middle East from the Pacific. The Pentagon has also moved sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets.

在与伊朗的战争开始前，美军指挥官已将“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母打击群从南海调往中东。此后，两个海军陆战队远征部队（各包括约2200名陆战队员）已从太平洋被派往中东。五角大楼还从亚洲调走了先进的防空系统，以加强针对伊朗无人机和火箭弹的防护。

The redirected weapons include Patriot missiles and interceptors from the THAAD system in South Korea — the only Asian ally hosting the advanced missile defense system, deployed by the Pentagon to counter North Korea’s growing missile threat. Now, for the first time, the system’s interceptors are being moved away, according to American officials.

调动的武器包括来自韩国的“爱国者”导弹和“萨德”系统拦截弹——韩国是唯一一个部署了该先进导弹防御系统的亚洲盟友，该系统是五角大楼为应对朝鲜日益增长的导弹威胁而部署的。据美国官员称，这是该系统拦截弹首次被调走。

U.S. readiness in the Pacific was hurt earlier by the Pentagon’s deployment of warships and aircraft to the Middle East after the Israel-Gaza war began in October 2023 and after Houthi militia forces in Yemen started attacking ships in the Red Sea to support the Palestinians, the officials say.

官员们称，美军在太平洋的战备状态此前已受到损害，原因是2023年10月以哈战争爆发后，以及也门胡塞武装为支持巴勒斯坦人开始在红海袭击船只后，五角大楼向中东部署了军舰和飞机。

The monthlong bombing campaign against the Houthis last year — an operation the Pentagon called Rough Rider — was much larger than the Trump administration initially disclosed at the time. The Pentagon used up about $200 million of munitions in the first three weeks alone, U.S. officials said. The costs of the overall operation far exceeded $1 billion when operational and personnel expenses were taken into account, the officials added.

去年对胡塞武装长达一个月的轰炸行动（五角大楼称之为“莽骑兵”行动）的规模比特朗普政府最初披露的要大得多。美国官员称，仅在前三周，五角大楼就消耗了价值约2亿美元的弹药。官员们补充说，如果考虑到行动和人员费用，整个行动的成本远超10亿美元。

The American ships and aircraft, as well as the service members working on them, are being pushed at what the military calls a high operating tempo. Even basic equipment maintenance becomes an issue under those grinding conditions.

美国的军舰和飞机，以及为其服务的军人，正以军方所称的高运行节奏运转。在这种严酷的条件下，即使是基本的设备维护也成了问题。

The Justice Department has identified 384 foreign-born Americans whose citizenship it wants to revoke, part of a push to increase the pace of denaturalizations by assigning the cases to prosecutors in dozens of U.S. attorney’s offices across the country.

美国司法部已锁定384名归化美国公民，计划撤销他们的公民身份。这是加快撤销归化入籍进程的一部分，相关案件将分配给全国数十个联邦检察官办公室的检察官处理。

Senior Justice Department officials in Washington told colleagues during a meeting last week that civil litigators in 39 regional offices would soon be assigned to file denaturalization cases against the individuals, according to an official familiar with the announcement who was not authorized to describe it on the record. Two people familiar with the plans confirmed the broader effort to ramp up denaturalizations. It was not clear what led the department to target the 384 individuals.

据一位未获授权公开发言的知情人士透露，司法部在华盛顿的高级官员于上周的一次会议上告诉同事，39个地区办公室的民事诉讼律师将很快接受指派，对这些人提起撤销入籍的诉讼。两位知情人士证实了这项旨在加大撤销入籍力度的这一整体行动。目前尚不清楚司法部锁定这384人的具体原因。

Under federal law, the government may ask a court to strip the citizenship of people who obtained it fraudulently — for instance, by entering into a sham marriage or by withholding information about their past that would have made them ineligible. Some who commit crimes may also be denaturalized. The government must present evidence to a federal judge through a civil or criminal proceeding, making the process challenging and time-consuming.

根据联邦法律，政府可以请求法院剥夺通过欺诈手段获得的公民身份，例如通过假结婚或隐瞒会导致其不具备资格的过往重要信息。一些存在犯罪行为的人也可能被撤销入籍。政府必须在民事或刑事程序中向联邦法官提交证据，因此这一过程既复杂又耗时。

Traditionally, experts in the department’s office of immigration litigation have handled denaturalization cases. But the effort to enlist regular prosecutors to pursue these cases could lead to a surge in denaturalizations, which have been rare in recent decades. It also comes just months after Trump administration officials ordered Department of Homeland Security staffers to refer upward of 200 denaturalization cases a month to the DOJ.

传统上，这类案件通常由司法部移民诉讼办公室的专家处理。而让普通检察官参与办理这些案件可能导致撤销入籍案件激增，近几十年来此类案件一直数量很少。就在几个月前，特朗普政府官员还命令国土安全部工作人员每月向司法部移送逾200起撤销入籍案件。

Matthew Tragesser, a Justice Department spokesman, said that officials were “pursuing the highest volume of denaturalization referrals in history” from the Department of Homeland Security.

司法部发言人马修·特拉格瑟表示，官员们正在从国土安全部“接收史上最大数量的撤销入籍案件移交”。

“The Department of Justice is laser focused on rooting out criminal aliens defrauding the naturalization process,” he added.

他还补充道：“司法部正高度专注于清除那些通过欺诈手段获得国籍的犯罪外国人。”

“Citizenship fraud is a serious crime; anyone who has broken the law and obtained citizenship through fraud and deceit will be held accountable,” said Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman.

白宫发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊表示：“公民身份欺诈是一项严重犯罪；任何违反法律、通过欺骗和欺诈手段获得公民身份的人都将被追究责任。”

The push indicates that the Trump administration aims to make good on its plan to increase the pace of denaturalizations as part of its crackdown on immigration. The move will likely scare many naturalized immigrants as the Trump administration has sought to curtail immigration across the board and spoken disdainfully about migrants from certain countries.

此举表明，特朗普政府旨在落实其加速撤销归化公民身份的计划，以此作为打击非法移民的一部分。由于特朗普政府一直在全面限制移民，并对某些国家的移民发表轻蔑言论，此举可能会让许多已入籍的移民感到恐惧。

“The message it sends is that naturalized citizens don’t have the same rights and stability as native-born citizens,” said Amanda Frost, a law professor at the University of Virginia. “The government has used this power in the past to target people it views as political opponents.”

弗吉尼亚大学法学教授阿曼达·弗罗斯特表示：“这传递出的信息是，归化公民并不享有与出生公民同等的权利和稳定性。政府过去曾利用这一权力来针对其视为政治对手的人。”

Between 2017 and late last year, the government sought to strip just over 120 naturalized Americans of their citizenship. Such cases were far less common before President Trump was first elected, said Ms. Frost, who has written about the history of denaturalization. Between 1990 and 2017, the government filed 305 denaturalization cases, an average of 11 per year.

弗罗斯特教授曾撰文论述撤销入籍的历史，她表示，从2017年到去年年底，政府试图剥夺120余名归化美国公民的国籍。而在特朗普首次当选总统之前，这类案件要少得多。1990年至2017年间，政府共提起305起撤销入籍诉讼，平均每年11起。

People who become U.S. citizens are extensively vetted. Applicants must provide biometric data and answer wide-ranging questions about their travel history, run-ins with the law and ties to the Communist Party. Some qualify through marriage to U.S. citizens after three years. Others become eligible after having held green cards for at least five years. The final steps of the naturalization process include passing civics and English tests.

成为美国公民需要经过严格审查。申请人必须提供生物识别数据，并回答涉及旅行历史、违法记录以及与共产党的关系等方面的广泛问题。有些人通过与美国公民结婚满三年获得资格，还有一些人则是在持有绿卡至少五年后具备申请资格。入籍程序的最后步骤包括通过公民常识和英语测试。

There have been instances of fraud. In 2017, the inspector general at the Department of Homeland Security said in a report that an initiative to digitize fingerprints collected on paper in old immigration cases revealed that more than 800 immigrants obtained American citizenship despite having been previously deported under a different name.

欺诈案例确实存在。2017年，国土安全部监察长在一份报告中指出，一项将以往的移民案件中以纸质形式采集的指纹加以数字化的项目发现，有800多名移民此前曾以不同姓名被驱逐出境，却仍获得了美国公民身份。

In 2024, more than 818,000 immigrants became American citizens, according to federal data.

根据联邦数据，2024年有超过81.8万名移民成为美国公民。

Naturalized citizens enjoy almost all the rights and responsibilities of native-born citizens (a notable exception is that foreign-born citizens may not run for president). As such, the bar for stripping someone of citizenship is high.

归化公民几乎享有与出生公民相同的所有权利和义务（一个显著例外是，外国出生的公民不能竞选总统）。因此，剥夺一个人的公民身份门槛非常高。

“For civil revocation of naturalization, the burden of proof is clear, convincing, and unequivocal evidence which does not leave the issue in doubt,” the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service said on its website.

美国公民及移民服务局在其网站上表示：“对于通过民事诉讼撤销归化国籍，举证责任要求提供清晰、令人信服且明确的证据，不得留下任何疑点。”

During last week’s meeting, Francey Hakes, the director of the Executive Office for United States Attorneys, described the 384 individuals identified for denaturalization “the first wave of cases” the government intended to pursue. Ms. Hakes acknowledged that several civil divisions at U.S. attorney’s offices are understaffed and struggling to cope with an avalanche of lawsuits filed by immigrants challenging the legality of their detentions.

在上周的会议上，美国联邦检察官执行办公室主任弗朗西·海克斯将已确定的384名拟撤销入籍者称为政府计划推进的“第一波案件”。海克斯承认，多个联邦检察官办公室的民事部门人手不足，且正艰难应对移民提起的大量质疑其拘留合法性的诉讼。

“I hope these cases will not be too much of an additional burden,” Ms. Hakes told colleagues, adding that boosting denaturalization cases was a “White House initiative.”

“我希望这些案件不会增加太多额外负担，”海克斯告诉同事们，并补充说，加大撤销入籍案件的力度是“白宫的一项倡议”。

Ms. Jackson, the White House spokeswoman, said “this isn’t a White House initiative — it’s federal law.”

白宫发言人杰克逊则表示：“这并不是白宫的倡议——这是联邦法律。”

Making denaturalization cases a core part of the work of civil divisions at U.S. attorney’s offices stands to divert resources from the type of cases its litigators have historically prioritized. Those include health-care fraud, procurement fraud, enforcement of civil rights laws and asset forfeiture cases.

将撤销入籍案件作为联邦检察官办公室民事部门的核心工作，可能会分流其诉讼律师原本用于处理传统优先案件的资源。这些案件包括医疗欺诈、采购欺诈、民权法律执行以及资产没收案件。

A rise in denaturalizations may also send a chilling message, said Ms. Frost, the law professor, hearkening back to an era in the 20th Century during which the government denaturalized political activists it disdained. President Trump said in an interview in January that Americans of Somali descent could be among those targeted in the denaturalization push.

法学教授弗罗斯特表示，撤销入籍案件的增加还可能释放出一种令人不安的信号，让人联想到20世纪某个时期，当时政府曾剥夺其不满的政治活动人士的公民身份。特朗普总统在今年1月的一次采访中曾表示，索马里裔美国人可能会成为此次撤销入籍行动的目标之一。

During the years when the government pursued denaturalization cases infrequently, it tended to go after people who had committed war crimes overseas before becoming Americans.

在政府很少处理撤销入籍案件的年代，它往往针对的是那些在成为美国公民之前于海外犯下战争罪行的人。

“This kind of mass denaturalization campaign will be based on a distortion of the law and is another transparent effort to destabilize long-established principles of US citizenship,” said Lucas Guttentag, a former DOJ official in the Biden administration and a professor at Stanford Law School. “Genuine fraud when it actually occurs has always been aggressively pursued.”

斯坦福法学院教授、曾在拜登政府时期担任司法部官员的卢卡斯·古滕塔格表示：“这种大规模撤销入籍行动将建立在对法律的曲解之上，是破坏美国公民身份长期确立原则的又一次赤裸裸的尝试。”他还说：“真正发生的欺诈行为一直都会被严厉追究。”

In recent months, the Trump administration has filed denaturalization cases against a broad range of immigrants. They include a Marine from Ghana who was court-martialed over a sex crime, an Argentine man accused of having obtained citizenship by falsely claiming to be Cuban and a Nigerian man convicted of running a tax-fraud scheme.

最近几个月，特朗普政府已对各类移民提起了撤销入籍诉讼，其中包括一名因性犯罪接受军事法庭审判的加纳裔海军陆战队员、一名被指控通过谎称自己是古巴人而获得公民身份的阿根廷男子，以及一名因经营税务欺诈计划而被定罪的尼日利亚男子。

Tim Cook is ending his illustrious stint as chief executive of Apple. The soft-spoken operator accomplished the near impossible, filling the shoes of the visionary co-founder Steve Jobs, turning the iPhone from a cultural phenomenon into a financial juggernaut and transforming his company into a $4 trillion goliath — growing its market value by $682 million per day, on average, for 15 years. By the metrics investors care about, Mr. Cook is nothing short of a rock star.

蒂姆·库克即将结束他在苹果公司担任首席执行官的辉煌任期。这位言辞温和的经营者完成了近乎不可能的任务，接过富有远见的联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯的衣钵，将iPhone从一种文化现象转变为金融巨擘，并将公司打造成市值4万亿美元的庞然大物——15年来，苹果的市值平均每天增长6.82亿美元。就投资者关心的指标而言，库克无疑是一位摇滚巨星。

But when one considers his role in the sweep of American history, his legacy grows more complicated, for much of Apple’s success is due to his move to consolidate virtually all of his company’s manufacturing in China.

但如果从美国历史的长河来看，他的遗产就变得复杂得多，因为苹果的成功在很大程度上归功于他将公司几乎所有的制造业务都整合到了中国。

The results have been profound. Apple under Mr. Cook played a significant role in the rise of China’s middle class, and produced the iPhone in enormous quantities at a low enough cost that roughly half of all Americans own one. His choices also dramatically escalated China’s economic standing and technological prowess to the point that its increasingly authoritarian leaders now see themselves as powerful rivals to the U.S.

其结果是深远的。在库克的领导下，苹果在中国中产阶级的崛起中发挥了重要作用，并以足够低的价格大规模生产iPhone，使得大约一半的美国人都拥有一部。他的选择也显著提升了中国的经济地位和技术实力，以至于其日益威权的领导层现在将自己视为美国的强力竞争对手。

If President Xi Jinping’s imperialist instincts fade, Mr. Cook will be remembered for helping bring capitalism and liberalism to one of the most populous countries in the world. If the tensions between China and the United States continue to escalate, especially if Beijing makes good on its threats to attack the island of Taiwan — a democracy that happens to produce the vast majority of the world’s semiconductor chips — Mr. Cook will be remembered differently. He will be the man who not only squandered his company’s future (as it is still highly dependent on China), but also handed the West’s technological prowess to its biggest threat.

如果习近平主席的帝国主义本能消退，库克将因帮助资本主义和自由主义带入这个世界上人口最多的国家之一而被铭记。但如果中美紧张局势持续升级，特别是如果北京兑现其攻击台湾的威胁——这个民主政体恰好生产了世界上绝大多数的半导体芯片，库克的名声将截然不同。他将被视为不仅葬送了公司前途（因为苹果仍高度依赖中国），而且将西方的技术优势拱手让给了西方的最大威胁。

History can be a brutal editor. Consider Jack Welch, the long-lionized chief executive of General Electric. In his two-decade reign, which ended in 2001, Mr. Welch earned shareholders an astonishing 21 percent annual return — just a nudge less than Mr. Cook’s — and was anointed “manager of the century” by Fortune magazine. His moves into financial engineering were the stuff of Wall Street legend — until the financial crisis exposed the company as hollowed out and recklessly overleveraged. By 2009, G.E. was begging for government-backed infusions of cash; its stock price had plummeted 85 percent. In 2022, author David Gelles recast Mr. Welch as “the man who broke capitalism.”

历史可能是一位残酷的评选者。想想通用电气长期备受推崇的首席执行官杰克·韦尔奇。在他截至2001年的20年任期内，韦尔奇为股东赚取了惊人的21%年化回报率——仅比库克略低一点——并被《财富》杂志誉为“世纪经理人”。他在金融工程方面的举措曾是华尔街的传奇，直到金融危机暴露了这家公司已经空心化且杠杆过高、风险巨大。到2009年，通用电气不得不乞求政府注资；其股价暴跌了85%。2022年，作家戴维·盖尔斯将韦尔奇重新定义为“毁掉资本主义的人”。

Mr. Cook started at Apple as a senior vice president of operations in 1998 and quickly overhauled Apple’s manufacturing strategy to rely on inexpensive labor overseas. By owning the process rather than owning the factories, Apple could retain control over production while offloading the manufacturing risks to suppliers. Mr. Cook also wrested royalties from app makers and moved into media streaming and advertising, all part of a “services” push that was twice as profitable as the hardware Apple sold.

库克于1998年加入苹果担任运营高级副总裁，并迅速改革了苹果的制造战略，转而依靠海外廉价劳动力。通过掌控生产流程而非拥有工厂，苹果在保持生产控制权的同时，将制造风险转嫁给了供应商。库克还向应用开发商征收版税，并进军流媒体和广告业务，这一切都是“服务”战略的一部分，其利润率是苹果硬件销售额的两倍。

Year after year, Mr. Cook removed microrisks from Apple’s business and made its financials smoother and more predictable. But at the same time, he proved blind to a macrorisk, moving the vast bulk of Apple’s operations to China just as the authoritarian country was turning into America’s fiercest adversary.

年复一年，库克排除了苹果业务中的微观风险，使其财务表现更加平稳且可预测。但与此同时，他却对宏观风险视而不见，就在中国这个威权国家转变为美国最激烈的对手之际，他将苹果绝大部分的业务转移到了那里。

Based on my research, I am convinced that no company has done more to enable President Xi. Since 2008, Apple has worked with suppliers to train 30 million workers, principally in China. It has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the mainland and facilitated an epic transfer of practical knowledge in how to make things to hundreds of Chinese factories. I wrote in my book that at two points, Apple’s Cupertino, Calif., headquarters was sending so many engineers to orchestrate production that it convinced United Airlines to fly thrice weekly from San Francisco to Chengdu and Hangzhou, arguing it would buy so many first-class seats that the route would be profitable even if the rest of the plane were empty.

根据我的研究，我确信没有哪家公司比苹果为习近平提供的助力更多。自2008年以来，苹果与供应商合作培训了3000万名工人，主要是在中国。它在大陆投资了数千亿美元，并促进了一场关于制造工艺的史诗级制造实践知识转移，惠及了数百家中国工厂。我在书中写道，有两次，苹果位于加州库比蒂诺的总部派出极多的工程师去协调生产，以至于它说服美联航开通每周三班从旧金山飞往成都和杭州的航班，理由是苹果购买的头等舱座位足以让这条航线在飞机其余座位全空的情况下也能盈利。

The price of doing business in China was turning a blind eye to its increasingly authoritarian impulses. Apple has removed tens of thousands of apps from its Chinese App Store at Beijing’s direction. It moved mainland Chinese users’ iCloud data to servers operated by a state-owned company, likely exposing their personal data to the government. (Apple says it’s adhering to China’s laws.)

在中国开展业务的代价是对该国日益增长的威权冲动视而不见。苹果根据北京的指示，从中国的应用商店下架了数万个应用。它将中国大陆用户的iCloud数据迁移到一家国有企业运营的服务器上，这可能将个人数据暴露给政府。（苹果称其遵守中国法律。）

Mr. Cook has spoken out in favor of voting rights, the environment, gun control and L.G.B.T.Q. protections, but he has been conspicuously silent on China’s subjugation of Hong Kong protesters, the persecution of Uyghurs in Xinjiang or the 20-year sentence of the pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Most revealing of all, since taking over as Apple’s C.E.O., he has not set foot in Taiwan — a thriving democracy, but a rogue province from Beijing’s perspective. That the chief of the world’s most iconic technology company won’t visit its most important chip suppliers is telling.

库克曾公开支持投票权、环境保护、枪支管制和LGBTQ权益，但对于中国镇压香港抗议者、迫害新疆维吾尔人，以及判处亲民主媒体大亨黎智英20年监禁等事件，他一直保持引人注目的沉默。最能说明问题的是，自担任苹果CEO以来，他从未踏足台湾——一个充满活力的民主政体，但在北京看来却是一个叛乱省份。作为全球最具标志性的科技公司掌门人，却不愿访问其最重要的芯片供应商所在地，这本身就很说明问题。

Apple is hardly alone in this. Many American companies, in their scramble for lower prices, have effectively given away swaths of their practical know-how, machinery, processes and talent to China. They gave President Xi the resources he needed to attain dominance in fields as disparate as rare-earth magnets, solar wafers, steel and pharmaceuticals. The billions China is pouring into building electric cars alone could leave Detroit in the dust.

苹果并非个例。许多美国公司为了追求更低的价格，实际上已经将大量的实用技术、机械设备、工艺流程和人才拱手让给了中国。它们为习近平提供了所需资源，帮助中国在稀土磁铁、太阳能硅片、钢铁和制药等迥异领域取得主导地位。仅中国投入于电动汽车领域的数十亿美元，就可能让底特律望尘莫及。

China is building far more than the country needs or that importers want. When Western economists criticize the resulting oversupply as inefficient, they’re missing the point. China’s goal isn’t to provide a return to shareholders. It is to control the world by commanding its material production. As economist Noah Smith observed, “profit is not the goal of war.”

中国的产能远超国内需求或进口商所需。当西方经济学家批评这种过度供应的低效时，他们其实没抓住重点。中国的目标不是为股东提供回报，而是通过掌握全球物质生产来控制世界。正如经济学家诺亚·史密斯所观察到的：“利润不是战争的目标。”

Despite the Biden and Trump administrations’ efforts to slow the country’s momentum, China’s share of global industrial production is expected to rise to 45 percent by 2030, up from about 30 percent in 2025. And Beijing just implemented new rules to punish foreign companies taking action to divest from China.

尽管拜登和特朗普政府努力减缓中国的这种势头，但到2030年，中国在全球工业生产中的份额预计将从2025年的约30%上升到45%。而且北京刚刚实施了新规定，对采取措施撤资中国的外国企业予以惩罚。

Apple, for its part, has made tentative moves to expand iPhone assembly to India, but the bulk of its supply chain is still deeply rooted in China.

就苹果而言，虽然已经初步尝试将iPhone组装扩展到印度，但其供应链的主体依然深植于中国。

John Ternus, Mr. Cook’s successor, is relatively young, capable and ambitious. There’s reason to hope he can rethink and unlearn some of Mr. Cook’s core assumptions. But Mr. Cook isn’t retiring; he’s stepping up to executive chairman. And Mr. Ternus may not be able to chart a new course if the architect of the current strategy sits above him.

库克的继任者约翰·特纳斯相对年轻、能干且有抱负。我们有理由希望他能重新思考并摒弃库克的一些核心假设。但库克并未退休，而是转任执行董事长。如果当前战略的架构师依然高居其上，特纳斯未必能开辟出新的航向。

Of course, no businessman can ever truly know the historical consequences of his actions. The Cambridge historian Christopher Clark argued that the catastrophe that was the First World War resulted from the aggregation of rational, defensible decisions made by statesmen in a complex world. Mr. Cook’s decision to consolidate Apple’s operations into China fits that mold: Every decision to deepen his footprint in the country made sense at the time.

当然，没有哪个商人能真正预知其行为的历史后果。剑桥大学历史学家克里斯托弗·克拉克认为，第一次世界大战的惨剧是政治人士们在复杂世界中做出的一系列理性且合理的决策叠加的结果。库克将苹果业务向中国集中的决策也符合这种模式：当时每一步加深在华业务布局的决定，在当时看来都是合理的。

Those decisions also made Apple and its investors enormous sums of money. But stock prices don’t reflect the costs to our economy and our own gutted industries.

这些决定确实为苹果及其投资者赚取了巨额财富。但股票价格并不能反映这些决策给我们的经济，以及我们那些被掏空的产业所带来的代价。

On Thursday morning, Washington time, a senior Iranian official wrote on X that the country’s fighters were hiding in sea caves near the Strait of Hormuz, preparing to “devastate the aggressors.”

华盛顿时间周四上午，一位伊朗高级官员在X平台上发文称，该国的战士正隐藏在霍尔木兹海峡附近的海蚀洞中，准备“重创侵略者”。

Eighteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat” that is “putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“对任何在霍尔木兹海峡水域布设水雷的船只，”特朗普总统18分钟后在Truth Social上发帖说。“我已命令美国海军开火击毁。”

Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, interrupted by a cease-fire that he extended indefinitely this week, has morphed from all-out bombardment to a volatile, costly standoff at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

特朗普对伊朗的战争在本周被他无限期延长的停火协议打断，现在已从全面轰炸转变为波斯湾入口处一场不稳定且代价高昂的对峙。

Neither side appears eager to return to the violence that ensnared much of the Middle East before the April 7 cease-fire, though both insist they are ready for it. And neither side is showing signs of capitulating to the other’s demands. The result is round after round of taunts, threats and maritime incidents, with many of the tensions playing out on social media even as the economic costs mount and Mr. Trump faces a political backlash at home.

双方似乎都不愿重返4月7日停火前席卷中东大部分地区的暴力冲突，尽管双方都坚称已做好准备。双方也都没有表现出向对方让步的迹象。结果就是一轮又一轮的嘲讽、威胁和海上事件，许多紧张局势甚至在社交媒体上展开，与此同时，经济成本不断上升，特朗普在国内也面临政治反弹。

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said she had assumed that a diplomatic deal would resolve the standoff quickly, given the economic and strategic costs to the United States of the Strait of Hormuz’s staying closed. But Ms. Maloney said she was now adjusting her expectations amid Iran’s determination to maintain control of the strait as leverage and the strategic quandary that Mr. Trump has found himself in.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会副会长、伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，她原本以为鉴于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭给美国带来的经济和战略代价，外交协议会很快解决这场对峙。但她说，现在她正在调整自己的预期，因为伊朗决心将控制海峡作为筹码，而特朗普也陷入了战略困境。

“He’s stuck with this, for as long as the strait remains closed,” Ms. Maloney said. “The speed with which this became a quagmire for the United States has been, also, quite stunning.”

“只要海峡保持关闭，他就会一直被困在这里，”马洛尼说。“这场危机如此迅速地变成美国的泥潭，也让人相当震惊。”

Mr. Trump insisted on Thursday that he had “all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t,” in the standoff over the strait. He posted a column by a hawkish commentator, Marc A. Thiessen, arguing that Mr. Trump should give Iran 72 hours before he resumes combat and opens the Strait of Hormuz by force.

特朗普周四坚称，在海峡对峙中，他“有的是时间，而伊朗没有”。他转发了一篇鹰派评论员马克·A·西森的专栏文章，主张特朗普应在72小时后恢复战斗，并以武力重新打开霍尔木兹海峡。

“If they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

“如果他们不想达成协议，那我就用军事手段结束它，”特朗普周四在白宫对记者说。

But in reality, Mr. Trump faces an array of bad options, experts say. The U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping in the strait — combined with Iran’s counter-blockade on other traffic — continues to squeeze global energy and commodity markets, risking more price inflation in the United States as Mr. Trump’s Republican Party already faces a daunting midterm election season.

但专家们表示，实际上特朗普面临着一系列糟糕的选项。美国对伊朗海峡航运的封锁——加上伊朗对其他船只的反封锁——继续挤压全球能源和大宗商品市场，这可能会在美国引发更多的物价上涨，与此同时，特朗普所在的共和党已面临艰难的中期选举季。

Iran appears determined to extract concessions from Mr. Trump, like sanctions relief and a compromise on its nuclear program, before agreeing to any diplomatic solution over the impasse. Ms. Maloney said that all signs pointed to Iran’s leaders continuing to believe that their tolerance for economic pain remains higher than that of Mr. Trump.

伊朗似乎决心在同意任何外交解决方案之前，从特朗普那里榨取让步，例如解除制裁以及在其核计划上达成妥协。马洛尼表示，所有迹象都表明，伊朗领导人依然认为他们对经济痛苦的承受能力高于特朗普。

Seeking a military solution could be even more painful for the United States. Airstrikes alone are unlikely to do enough damage to Iran’s military to prevent it from being able to fight back, said Seth G. Jones, the defense and security department president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Reopening the strait by force was possible, he said, but would involve the risk of large U.S. warships getting sunk, and of “U.S. Marines or Army soldiers seizing an island or shoreline and getting killed,” he said.

寻求军事解决方案对美国来说可能会更加痛苦。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部主任塞思·G·琼斯表示，仅靠空袭不太可能对伊朗军队造成足够的伤害，从而阻止其反击。他说，通过武力重新开放海峡是可能的，但这将面临大型美国军舰被击沉的风险，以及“美国海军陆战队或陆军士兵夺取岛屿或海岸线并遭受伤亡”的风险。

Mr. Trump also still faces the quandary of how to deal with Iran’s 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which could be enough for a dozen nuclear bombs. Mr. Trump insisted again on Thursday that he was determined to prevent Iran’s capability, warning that the alternative to U.S. success in Iran could be “nuclear holocaust” in European cities within reach of Iranian missiles.

特朗普还面临着如何处理伊朗约440公斤高浓铀的困境，这些铀足以制造约12枚核弹。他在周四再次坚称，他决心阻止伊朗的核能力，并警告称，如果美国在伊朗问题上失败，欧洲城市可能面临伊朗导弹射程内的“核浩劫”。

Iran faces hard choices, too. Its strikes on U.S. bases and on Arab countries around the Persian Gulf were effective in getting Mr. Trump to declare a cease-fire. But Mr. Jones said that achieving more by force would be difficult for Iran, especially given the blockade and the damage already done to its military.

伊朗也面临艰难抉择。它对美国基地和波斯湾周边阿拉伯国家的打击，有效迫使特朗普宣布停火。但琼斯表示，伊朗很难通过武力获得更多成果，尤其是考虑到当前的封锁以及其军队已遭受的损失。

“It’s kind of a game of chicken right now,” Mr. Jones said. Both in Washington and Tehran, he added, military officials were likely telling political leaders that “the military instrument is not likely to be successful in getting to any kind of a permanent solution.”

“现在有点像一场胆量比拼的游戏，”琼斯说。他补充道，在华盛顿和德黑兰，军方领导人很可能都在告诉政治领导人，“军事手段不太可能成功达成任何永久性解决方案。”

Given the military impasse and the economic pain on both sides, a negotiated resolution appears to be the most logical way out of the crisis, Mr. Jones and other analysts said. But the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could escalate quickly, as both Iran and the United States try to show their resolve in the narrow waterway while also trying diplomacy.

鉴于军事僵局和双方的经济痛苦，琼斯和其他分析人士表示，通过谈判达成解决方案似乎是摆脱这场危机最合乎逻辑的方式。但在试图通过外交手段解决问题的同时，伊朗和美国也试图在狭窄水道中展示决心，霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势可能迅速升级。

“You have a situation that’s not in equilibrium,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, referring to the contrast between the efforts at diplomacy and the “test of wills” at sea.

中东研究所高级研究员布莱恩·卡图利斯谈到外交努力与海上“意志考验”之间的反差时说：“目前的局势并不平衡。”

On Wednesday, Iran released a video showing its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps intercepting two cargo ships near the strait, with balaclava-clad forces scaling one of the vessels on a ladder. On Thursday, the U.S. military released a dramatic video of its own, showing Navy forces descending on ropes from helicopters onto a tanker it said was carrying oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean.

周三，伊朗发布了一段视频，显示其伊斯兰革命卫队在海峡附近拦截了两艘货船，蒙面部队通过梯子攀登其中一艘船。周四，美国军方也发布了自己的一段戏剧性视频，显示海军部队从直升机索降至一艘油轮上，美方称该油轮当时正在印度洋运载伊朗石油。

At the same time, Mr. Trump has said he wants to give diplomacy a chance. Referring to his cease-fire extension this week, he told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Iran was having trouble negotiating because “they are very disorganized right now.”

与此同时，特朗普表示他希望给外交机会。他在周四白宫对记者谈到本周延长停火时说，伊朗目前“非常混乱”，所以谈判有困难。

“They want to make a deal,” Mr. Trump said. “We thought we’d give them a little chance to get some of their turmoil resolved.”

“他们想达成协议，”特朗普说。“我们认为应该给他们一点时间来解决自身的混乱。”

Responding to a reporter’s question, Mr. Trump said that Americans would still need to wait “a little while” before gas prices come down.

在回答记者提问时，特朗普表示，美国人还需要再等“一段时间”才能看到油价下降。

The world is eager to know how long that will be. A long-term impasse between the United States and Iran carries enormous risks of its own, given the critical goods — not only oil and natural gas but also fertilizer and helium — that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

全世界都急于知道这段时间会有多长。美国与伊朗之间的长期僵持本身就带有巨大风险，因为通常通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的关键物资不仅有石油和天然气，还有化肥和氦气等。

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, told CNBC on Thursday that the crisis was worsening by the day.

国际能源署执行董事法提赫·比罗尔周四告诉CNBC，这场危机正在日益恶化。

“The longer it lasts, the longer time we will need to get back where we were before the war,” he said.

“持续得越久，我们就需要越长时间才能恢复到战前状态，”他说。

Cliff Kupchan, chairman emeritus of the Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment firm, said the risk of a monthslong shutdown of the strait was only beginning to “enter the collective mind of the markets.”

政治风险评估公司欧亚集团名誉主席克里夫·库普昌表示，海峡关闭长达数月的可能性才刚刚开始“进入市场的集体意识”。

“It’s actually a scenario that I think political analysts and markets need to get their heads around more,” Mr. Kupchan said. “We’re in uncharted territory.”

“这实际上是一个我认为政治分析师和市场都需要认真思考的情景，”库普昌说。“我们正处于未知领域。”

A research arm of the Chinese government said it had published an atlas of deep-sea mineral deposits, highlighting Beijing’s ambitions to mine the ocean floor and underscoring its disputed claims to waters that neighboring nations consider theirs.

中国政府的一个研究机构表示，已发布一本深海沉积物分布图集，此举既凸显了北京开发海底资源的雄心，也再次强化了其对一些周边国家视为本国海域的争议性主张。

Experts say the maps, in addition to pinpointing mineral deposits found in the deep ocean, give China’s military a thorough understanding of the seafloor in strategically important waters, providing an advantage if submarine warfare were to break out.

专家表示，这些地图除了标明深海沉积物的位置外，还能让中国军方在具有重要战略意义的海域全面了解海底的情况，一旦发生潜艇战，将为其带来优势。

The announcement this month by the China Geological Survey puts pressure on other countries that have been ramping up their own seabed mining efforts, in part to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals and rare earth elements. Ocean sediments are rich in valuable resources including cobalt, nickel, and manganese.

中国地质调查局本月发布的这一消息给其他国家带来了压力——这些国家正在加紧推进海底采矿，一部分原因是希望减少对中国在关键矿产和稀土方面的依赖。海洋沉积物中富含钴、镍、锰等宝贵资源。

“China is pouring enormous resources in an effort to emerge as a world-leading oceanographic power,” said Bruce Jones, a naval affairs and foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution. The United States historically dominated in ocean-science fields, he said. Now, China is closing the gap, increasing China’s military capabilities and equipping it with the knowledge needed to fight underwater, Dr. Jones said.

布鲁金斯学会的海军事务与外交政策专家布鲁斯·琼斯表示，“中国正在投入大量资源，努力成为世界领先的海洋强国”。他说，美国在海洋科学领域曾长期占据主导地位。如今，中国正在缩小差距，这不仅增强了它的军事能力，也为其水下作战提供了必要的知识储备。

With mapping of this nature, “you can use it for science, and you can use it for warfare,” Dr. Jones said. “It’s a rare-earth play, it’s a scientific play, and it’s a strategic play all at once,” he said.

琼斯博士说，这种性质的海底测绘，“你可以用于科学，也可以用于战争”。他表示，“它同时涉及稀土资源、科学研究以及战略布局。”

The atlas, according to materials published on the China Geological Survey website, maps the locations and concentrations of dozens of resources, drawing from two decades of research and samplings at more than 10,000 locations. The China Geological Survey said the atlas included the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, where China claims territory that neighboring nations consider theirs.

根据中国地质调查局网站发布的材料，这本图集标示了数十种资源的位置分布和储量情况，利用了过去20年的研究成果以及在1万多个地点采集的样本。中国地质调查局表示，该图集涵盖东海和黄海，而中国在这些海域的领土主张与邻国存在冲突。

China controls most of the world’s supply of key critical metals and rare earths, which are essential ingredients in modern weapons and technologies, and the Chinese government recently approved a five-year plan that lists the development of deep-sea minerals a priority. China has used its dominance to political ends, for example by restricting exports to the United States and Japan during disputes with those countries.

中国控制着全球大部分关键金属和稀土资源的供应，这些都是现代武器和技术不可或缺的原材料。中国政府最近还批准了一项五年规划，将深海矿产的开发列为优先事项。中国将这种主导地位用于政治目的，例如在与美国和日本发生争端时，限制对这两国的出口。

Japan is developing its own seabed mining program, in part to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies. In February, the government said it had successfully retrieved mud rich in rare earths from depths of more than 6,000 meters, an achievement that Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, hailed as a “world’s first.” Japan and the United States have made commitments to support each others’ seabed mining projects.

日本正在发展自己的海底采矿项目，部分原因是为了减少对中国的依赖。今年2月，日本政府表示已成功从6000多米深的海底采集到富含稀土的泥浆，日本首相高市早苗称赞这一成就为“世界首创”。日本和美国还承诺相互支持彼此的海底采矿项目。

The Trump administration has made seabed mining a priority. It hopes to issue mining leases near Pacific Ocean territories like American Samoa. It is also plans to permit commercial mining outside of U.S. territorial waters without international approval.

特朗普政府已将海底采矿列为优先事项，希望发放美属萨摩亚等太平洋领地附近的采矿许可。同时，它还计划在未经国际批准的情况下允许在美国领海以外的海域进行商业采矿。

China’s mining atlas has strategic importance in bolstering its claim for disputed waters, according to Yun Sun, who leads a Chinese foreign policy program at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs research organization in Washington.

华盛顿外交政策研究机构史汀生中心的中国外交政策项目负责人孙韵表示，中国这份深海矿产地图集在强化其对争议海域的主权主张方面具有战略意义。

There are a number of international law customs that determine national boundaries. Consistently occupying and managing a territory can strengthen a country’s claim to it.

确定国家边界有许多国际法惯例。持续占领和管理某片领土可以增强一国对该领土的主权主张。

That means nonmilitary actions, like science and conservation, can be used to exert authority over an area, Dr. Sun said. Publicly announcing the atlas could be interpreted as China making a statement that it commands this maritime domain.

孙韵表示，这意味着一些非军事行动（如科学研究和环境保护）也可以用于对某片区域行使权力。公开该地图集可以解读为中国在宣示其对相关海域的管辖权。

Chinese deep-sea exploration ships have been spotted in the territorial waters of other countries, such as near the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. China has also reportedly tested seabed mining equipment in waters that Taiwan and the Philippines claim.

中国的深海勘探船曾被发现在其他国家的领海活动，例如阿拉斯加阿留申群岛附近。据报道，中国还在台湾和菲律宾声称拥有主权的海域测试过海底采矿设备。

Detailed mapping also helps countries claim additional seafloor, said Larry Mayer, director of the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire.

新罕布什尔大学海岸与海洋测绘中心主任拉里·迈耶表示，详细的测绘还能帮助各国争取更多海底区域的主张。

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea sets a boundary of 200 nautical miles from a nation’s coastline as an “exclusive economic zone” where it has special rights over resources, but a country can claim more seabed if it can prove that its continental shelf extends beyond this zone.

《联合国海洋法公约》规定，各国海岸线向外延伸200海里为“专属经济区”，在该范围内拥有资源开发的特殊权利。但如果一个国家能够证明其大陆架延伸超过这一范围，就可以对更多海底区域提出主张。

This has been a significant driver of ocean exploration efforts, Dr. Mayer said. In 2023, the United States made public detailed maps made over the previous decade claiming about 380,000 square miles of expanded continental shelf, including in the Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

迈耶指出，这已成为推动海洋勘探活动的重要动力。2023年，美国公布了过去十年绘制的详细地图，声索了约100万平方公里的延伸大陆架，涉及北极、墨西哥湾以及大西洋和太平洋部分海域。

China has also presented proposals to the United Nations to extend its claim to the continental shelf, based on geological map evidence, drawing borders that Japan disputes as overlapping with its exclusive economic zone.

中国也曾向联合国提交提案，基于地质测绘证据，试图扩大其大陆架主张范围，其划定的边界与日本的专属经济区发生重叠，引发日方争议。

In the South China Sea (which the atlas does not cover), China has redrawn boundaries in waters also claimed by Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines and has taken other steps, including building artificial islands, to support its claims.

在南中国海（该地图集未涵盖这片海域），中国重新划定了台湾、越南和菲律宾同样声称拥有主权的海域边界，并采取了包括建造人工岛在内的其他措施来支持其主张。

Seabed mining is controversial. Critics say not enough is known about deep-sea environments to safely mine them. Research shows that mining would reduce the abundance of deep-sea animals and that ecosystems are slow to recover. Numerous countries as well as environmental organizations have called for moratoriums or an industry ban.

海底采矿本身也存在争议。批评者认为，类对深海环境的了解尚不足以安全地进行采矿。研究显示，采矿活动会减少深海生物数量，而海洋生态系统的恢复速度非常缓慢。许多国家和环保组织呼吁暂停甚至禁止这一行业。

Over the past two years, a furry monster with bunny ears and a vicious line of serrated teeth became the subject of a global craze, as shoppers waited hours in line or paid hundreds or thousands of dollars for the most coveted Labubus.

过去两年，一只长着兔耳、锯齿状锋利牙齿的毛茸怪物掀起了一股全球热潮。购物者为了买到最抢手的Labubu，不惜排队数小时，或花费数百乃至数千美元。

The boom turned Pop Mart, the Chinese company that sells Labubus, into a global brand. But a test of the doll — the results of which The New York Times has independently confirmed — showed that clothing on certain Labubu dolls contains cotton from the Xinjiang region of western China, which the U.S. government has banned because of its association with forced labor.

这股热潮让销售Labubu的中国公司泡泡玛特成为全球知名品牌。然而，一项针对Labubu玩偶的检测——其结果已由《纽约时报》独立证实——显示，部分Labubu玩偶的服装含有来自中国西部新疆地区的棉花。美国政府因该地区与强迫劳动存在关联，已禁止进口此类棉花。

For businesses like Pop Mart, selling products that contain cotton banned in the United States could have severe consequences. Companies found in violation of a 2021 law that restricts imports from Xinjiang can be put on a blacklist that bans all their products. The ban does not apply to importers that can prove goods were not made with forced labor.

对于泡泡玛特这样的企业而言，销售含有美国禁运棉花的产品可能面临严重后果。根据2021年的一项法律，如果公司被认定违反限制从新疆进口货物的规定，就可能被列入黑名单，导致其所有产品被禁止进口。该禁令不适用于能够证明货物未使用强迫劳动的进口商。

A spokeswoman for Pop Mart said that it would conduct an investigation into the presence of Xinjiang cotton in its supply chains, and that the company held itself and its suppliers to “the highest standards.” Pop Mart said that only a small percentage of its dolls used cotton for apparel, and that it was working on a plan to use alternative materials, rather than cotton, in its products for the U.S. market.

泡泡玛特的一位发言人表示，公司将对供应链中出现新疆棉的情况进行调查，并称公司对自身及其供应商要求达到“最高标准”。泡泡玛特表示，其玩偶中只有一小部分使用棉花制作服装，公司正在制定计划，在面向美国市场的产品中用其他材料替代棉花。

Nonprofit groups have submitted information about Pop Mart’s use of cotton from Xinjiang and other alleged labor violations at its Chinese factories to officials at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which would be responsible for enforcing an import ban.

非营利组织已向美国海关与边境保护局提交了关于泡泡玛特使用新疆棉以及其中国工厂涉嫌其他劳工违规的信息，该机构负责执行进口禁令。

The agency did not respond to requests for comment.

美国海关与边境保护局未回应置评请求。

A test of the cotton in a Labubu was commissioned last year by the Campaign for Uyghurs, a Washington-based nonprofit that opposes the persecution of Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic group concentrated in Xinjiang.

对Labubu玩偶中棉花的检测是去年由总部位于华盛顿的非营利组织“维吾尔运动”(Campaign for Uyghurs)委托进行的。该组织反对针对维吾尔人的迫害，维吾尔人是主要居住在中国新疆的穆斯林少数民族。

That test was conducted in June by Testrigin Technology Center Limited, a product testing facility in Taiwan. Isotopes in cotton vary depending on where it is grown. The Testrigin lab found that samples from a Labubu doll contained cotton grown in Xinjiang.

该检测于6月由台湾的产品检测机构Testrigin Technology Center Limited进行。棉花的同位素特征因产地不同而存在差异。Testrigin实验室发现，来自Labubu玩偶的样本含有新疆种植的棉花。

The Times bought 20 Labubus that were listed as containing cotton late last year from various retailers and had them independently examined to identify the source of the cotton. The people who reviewed the dolls for The Times did not want to be identified because they did not have permission to speak publicly.

《纽约时报》去年年底从多家零售商处购买了20只标称含有棉花的Labubu，并对其进行了独立检测以确定棉花来源。为《纽约时报》进行检测的人员不愿公开身份，因为他们未获得公开发言的许可。

Pieces of clothing from 16 of the 20 dolls were identified as containing cotton from Xinjiang, mainly their T-shirts. The dolls themselves are primarily made of polyester, but the outer part of some of the dolls, including the clothes, are described as containing cotton.

在这20只玩偶中，有16只的服装被鉴定为含有新疆棉，主要为它们的T恤。玩偶本体主要由聚酯纤维制成，但部分玩偶的外层（包括服装）被描述为含有棉花成分。

The dolls that contained Xinjiang cotton were bought from Amazon, eBay, Shein, AliExpress and other retail channels, as well as directly from Pop Mart. They were from the Labubu lines called Fall in the Wild and Flip With Me. While counterfeit Labubu dolls, known as Lafufus, have proliferated online, each of the dolls tested contained a QR code that allowed The Times to verify it as an authentic product.

这些含有新疆棉的玩偶购自亚马逊、eBay、Shein、AliExpress等零售渠道，以及泡泡玛特官网。它们来自名为“Fall in the Wild”和“Flip With Me”的Labubu系列。虽然网上假冒Labubu（俗称Lafufu）泛滥，但每只接受检测的玩偶均含有二维码，《纽约时报》据此验证其为正品。

With the wave of global interest in Labubus, the Chinese government has embraced Pop Mart as an icon of Chinese pop culture. Yet any potential legal violations by such a popular Chinese brand could be a test for the Trump administration, which has been wary of upsetting Chinese leaders before President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing next month.

随着Labubu在全球范围内受到追捧，中国政府已将其视为中国流行文化的标志性符号。然而，这样一个受欢迎的中国品牌若存在潜在违规，将对特朗普政府构成考验——在特朗普计划中的下月访华之前，政府一直谨慎避免激怒中国领导人。

A White House spokesman did not address the test results specifically, but he said the administration was monitoring for legal violations by importers and had initiated a broader investigation into the trade of goods made with forced labor.

白宫发言人未具体回应检测结果，但表示政府正在监控进口商的违法行为，并已启动对使用强迫劳动制造的商品贸易的更广泛调查。

Beijing denies any persecution of people in Xinjiang, where more than half the members of the population are part of Muslim ethnic groups. The government describes the programs it carries out in Xinjiang as poverty alleviation, as well as efforts to combat terrorism and separatism.

北京否认在新疆存在任何迫害行为。新疆人口中超过一半属于穆斯林少数民族。中国政府将自己在新疆开展的项目描述为扶贫，以及打击恐怖主义和分裂主义的努力。

But human rights groups and journalists have documented evidence of forced labor, forced sterilization and heavy surveillance of people who are not Han Chinese, a majority in most parts of China.

但人权组织和记者已记录下针对非汉族人群的强迫劳动、强迫绝育以及大规模监控的证据，而汉族是中国大部分地区的主要人口。

In January, experts at the United Nations said they were concerned about a persistent pattern of alleged state-imposed forced labor involving ethnic minorities in China, saying the practice may amount to enslavement and a crime against humanity.

今年1月，联合国专家表示，他们对所谓中国政府针对少数民族实施的持续性强迫劳动模式感到担忧，认为这种做法可能构成奴役和危害人类罪。

In 2021, Congress passed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which banned any product made in whole or in part in Xinjiang, unless the importer could prove it was not made with forced labor. The bill’s chief architect was Marco Rubio, a longtime critic of China, who was then a Republican senator and is now secretary of state. He has described the treatment of Uyghurs as genocide.

2021年，美国国会通过了《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》，禁止进口全部或部分在新疆生产的产品，除非进口商能证明其未使用强迫劳动。该法案的主要起草者是长期批评中国的共和党人马可·鲁比奥，他当时担任参议员，现任美国国务卿。他曾将对维吾尔人的待遇描述为种族灭绝。

The law also established an “entity list” of companies in Xinjiang that use forced labor to mine or manufacture goods. That list has 144 entries, though no new companies have been added since the Biden administration.

该法律还建立了一份“实体清单”，列入新疆使用强迫劳动开采或制造商品的公司。目前该清单有144个条目，但自拜登政府以来尚未新增公司。

Xinjiang produces more than 90 percent of China’s cotton, and about a fifth of the world’s cotton overall. Past investigations by The Times and others found Xinjiang cotton in the supply chains of many major retailers, though fear of penalties has led companies to adopt more rigorous vetting in recent years.

新疆生产的棉花占中国棉花总量的90%以上，占全球棉花总量的约五分之一。《纽约时报》和其他媒体以往的调查发现，许多大型零售商的供应链中都曾出现新疆棉。不过近年来，出于对处罚的担忧，企业已采用更严格的审查措施。

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act was “one of the most notorious and egregious laws in the 21st century,” and “a tool for U.S. politicians to destabilize Xinjiang.”

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示，《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》“堪称21世纪最臭名昭著的恶法之一”，是“美国政客破坏新疆稳定的工具”。

Mr. Liu did not directly address the test results and the possibility that some Labubu products were in violation of the act, but he said China would defend the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.

刘鹏宇没有直接回应检测结果以及部分Labubu产品可能违反该法案的可能性，但他表示，中国将维护中国企业的合法权益。

Rushan Abbas, the founder of the Campaign for Uyghurs, said the group’s goal was to have Pop Mart products banned in the United States. Ms. Abbas, who is Uyghur American, works on behalf of the Uyghur population. Her sister disappeared in northwest China almost eight years ago.

“维吾尔运动”创始人鲁珊·阿巴斯表示，该组织的目标是在美国禁止泡泡玛特的产品。代表维吾尔群体发声的阿巴斯是维吾尔裔美国人。她的姐姐近八年前在中国西北地区失踪。

The Labubu Boom

Labubu热潮

Despite making many of the world’s toys, couches and electronics, China has struggled to create its own coveted consumer brands. So the rising popularity of the ugly-but-cute Labubu — now the focus of a new feature film with Sony — has been a rare triumph for Chinese soft power.

尽管中国制造了世界上的许多玩具、沙发和电子产品，却一直难以打造出备受追捧的本土消费品牌。因此，外形丑萌的Labubu如今人气飙升——目前索尼已为其拍摄一部新的故事片——对中国软实力而言是一次难得的胜利。

The Labubu was created by a Hong Kong-born artist, Kasing Lung, who drew on a childhood fascination with the elves and trolls of Nordic folklore. In 2019, Mr. Lung began collaborating with Pop Mart, which had opened in Beijing as a variety store.

Labubu由出生于香港的艺术家龙家升创作，他从小就对北欧民间传说中的精灵和巨魔着迷。2019年，龙家升开始与泡泡玛特合作，后者当时在北京以杂货店的形式开业。

Pop Mart fueled interest in Labubus by selling the dolls in what are known as blind boxes, a format popular in China where consumers don’t know which doll they have chosen until they open the packaging. A Labubu generally costs $20 to $40 on Pop Mart’s website, though some fetch much more on resale sites.

泡泡玛特通过销售“盲盒”来推动Labubu的热度，这种包装形式在中国很受欢迎，消费者在打开包装前不知道自己会拿到哪一款玩偶。泡泡玛特官网上Labubu的价格一般在20至40美元之间，但在二手转售平台上，有些价格要高得多。

Pop Mart has expanded in the United States through a mix of regular stores and “robo shops,” essentially Labubu vending machines. While most of Pop Mart’s business comes from China, revenue from the Americas rose more than 700 percent last year, accounting for 18 percent of overall sales.

泡泡玛特通过开设实体店和“机器人商店”（本质上是Labubu自动贩卖机）在美国扩张。虽然公司大部分业务仍来自中国，但去年来自美洲的收入增长超过700%，占总销售额的18%。

Fans have included celebrities like Rihanna and Kim Kardashian and the tennis star Naomi Osaka, who made headlines at the U.S. Open last August when she showed off a Labubu-style doll that she named “Billie Jean Bling.”

Labubu的粉丝包括蕾哈娜、金·卡戴珊以及网球明星大坂直美等名人。大坂直美去年8月在美国网球公开赛上展示一款她命名为“Billie Jean Bling”的Labubu风格玩偶，曾引起热议。

But the Labubu boom may have started to fade. Despite its banner 2025, the company’s stock tumbled last month as it faced pressure to find its next hit product. It may face more challenges if its apparent use of Xinjiang cotton provokes a backlash.

然而，Labubu热潮可能已开始消退。尽管2025年业绩亮眼，但由于面临寻找下一款爆款产品的压力，上个月公司股价大幅下跌。如果其明显使用新疆棉的情况引发反弹，公司可能面临更多挑战。

Using information on the doll tags and boxes, The Times tracked the 16 Labubus that had Xinjiang cotton back to three separate factories in southeastern China that were operated by third-party contractors.

《纽约时报》根据玩偶标签和包装上的信息追踪到这16只含有新疆棉的Labubu，它们均来自中国东南部的三家工厂，这些工厂由第三方承包商运营。

One of these factories sits in an industrial park in Jiangxi Province. China Labor Watch, a nonprofit, carried out dozens of interviews last year at the factory, which employs more than 4,000 people. In a report published in January, the group documented what it said were various labor law violations, including a lack of protections for underage workers and people working without proper contracts.

其中一家工厂位于江西省的一个工业园区。非营利组织“中国劳工观察”去年在这家有4000多名工人的工厂进行了数十次面谈。该组织1月发布的报告记录了其所称的多种违反劳动法的行为，包括对未成年工人的保护缺失以及工人无正式合同工作等问题。

The spokeswoman for Pop Mart said it had carried out an independent audit of the factory after the China Labor Watch report.

前述泡泡玛特发言人表示，在“中国劳工观察”报告发布后，公司已对该工厂进行了独立审计。

Several lawmakers who were informed about the test results called for Labubus to be blocked from the United States. Representative John Moolenaar of Michigan, the Republican chairman of the House Select Committee on China, called the situation “unsurprising and unacceptable,” while Representative Ro Khanna of California, the committee’s highest-ranking Democrat, said it was evidence of the Trump administration’s failure to enforce trade laws.

几位获悉检测结果的议员呼吁禁止Labubu进入美国。密歇根州共和党众议员、众议院中国特别委员会主席约翰·穆勒纳尔称这种情况“毫不意外且不可接受”；该委员会的首席民主党人、加州众议员罗·卡纳则表示，这证明特朗普政府未能有效执行贸易法律。

“Pop Mart should prove that all of its dolls in the United States are slave-labor-free,” said Representative Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey, a Republican who is a co-chair for the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. “If they cannot, customs has the authority to stop all Labubu imports, and I will ask them to do so.”

“泡泡玛特应该证明其在美国销售的所有玩偶都不含奴工成分，”新泽西州共和党众议员克里斯托弗·H·史密斯说道，他是国会-行政部门中国委员会的联席主席。“如果他们无法证明，海关有权阻止所有Labubu进口，我将要求他们这样做。”

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act has rarely been used against consumer companies, and never for a product as viral as the Labubu, said Adrian Zenz, an expert on Uyghur forced labor.

研究维吾尔强迫劳动问题的专家郑国恩(Adrian Zenz)表示，《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》很少被用于针对消费品公司，也从未针对像Labubu这样病毒式传播的产品。

Under the law, if an interagency government panel reviews the evidence and finds that a company has violated the act, it can add the company to a sanctions list that would make it illegal to import any of their products. Customs officials can also detain the company’s shipments and demand an accounting of its supply chain, he said.

他指出，根据该法律，如果政府跨部门小组审查证据并认定某公司违法，就可以将其列入制裁名单，从而禁止进口该公司的任何产品。海关官员也可以扣留该公司的货物，并要求其提供供应链说明。

No one here can say exactly when it happened, but suddenly China is everywhere in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital.

没人能说清楚具体是从什么时候开始的，但突然间，中国的身影在印尼首都雅加达无处不在。

Compact Chinese electric cars weave through the streets. Chinese cosmetics crowd pharmacy shelves. Chinese hot pot restaurants and milk-tea chains have sprouted across the city’s many, many malls.

中国的紧凑型电动车在街头穿梭，中国的化妆品挤满药妆店货架，中国的火锅店和奶茶连锁在这座城市数不清的购物中心里迅速涌现。

“It’s all very sudden — they just came to this country, all the brands, including cars and drinks, without us knowing,” said Kavin Hibrizy Pradipto Eska, who recently traveled hours from his university to a motor show in northern Jakarta just to admire the Chinese cars on display.

“真是一下子就冒出来了——那些中国牌子，什么汽车啊饮料啊，不知不觉就涌进了这个国家，”卡文·希布里齐·普拉迪普托·埃斯卡说。他最近从自己就读的大学花了几个小时赶到雅加达北部的一个车展，就是为了看看展出的中国车。

Squeezed by cautious, penny-pinching consumers at home, Chinese companies are fanning out across the globe — from Brazil to the United Arab Emirates — in search of new ones. Indonesia, with its young, teeming population, is an obvious target.

面对国内消费者精打细算、不敢花钱的局面，中国企业正大举走出国门，从巴西到阿联酋，到处寻找新的消费者。拥有庞大年轻人口的印尼自然成为一个显而易见的目标。

But the courtship is complicated. China is already Indonesia’s largest investor and the biggest buyer of Indonesia’s natural resources, yet its presence is not always welcome. A flood of cheap Chinese goods has wiped out local jobs, and anti-Chinese sentiment, which has erupted into riots in the past, still simmers beneath the surface.

但这种“追求”并不是那么简单的事情。中国已经是印尼最大的投资者，也是其自然资源的最大买家，但这种存在并不总是受到欢迎。大量廉价中国商品的涌入挤掉了本地就业机会，而反华情绪——以前曾爆发为骚乱——至今仍暗流涌动。

And yet Chinese brands are winning over Indonesians. Companies like Mixue, Haidilao and BYD are reshaping how Indonesians see China. They are rising as American companies like Starbucks and McDonald’s struggle to win back young Indonesians, many of them Muslim, who have been boycotting American brands over U.S. support of Israel’s deadly attacks on civilians in Gaza.

尽管如此，中国品牌正在赢得印尼人的心。蜜雪冰城、海底捞和比亚迪等公司正在重塑印尼人对中国的看法。与此同时，星巴克和麦当劳等美国公司却在艰难地努力赢回印尼的年轻人——其中许多人是穆斯林，他们因美国支持以色列对加沙平民的致命打击而一直在抵制美国品牌。

For decades, China has been the world’s factory for items like vacuum cleaners, umbrellas and flip flops. But in the past few years, its companies have become household names, driving a sweeping technological shift across industries such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Chinese firms are now selling more of everything abroad, sending a tsunami of exports into every corner of the world, but especially to Southeast Asia.

几十年来，中国一直是生产吸尘器、雨伞和人字拖这类产品的世界工厂。但在过去几年里，很多中国企业成为了家喻户晓的名字，在太阳能电池板和电动汽车等行业推动了一场全面的技术变革。如今，中国企业向海外销售的各类商品越来越多，将出口产品如同海啸般送往全球各个角落，尤其是东南亚。

Large, fast-growing markets like Indonesia are increasingly vital for Chinese brands as U.S. trade barriers, including steep tariffs and restrictions on Chinese carmakers, close off what was once their largest export market.

像印尼这样规模庞大且快速增长的市场对中国品牌而言变得愈发重要。随着美国设置贸易壁垒——包括高额关税以及对中国汽车制造商的限制——这个曾经最大的出口市场正逐渐关闭。

That push into new markets is already shaping consumer choices for Mr. Kavin, 20. As a university student, he has no income yet. But once he does, he said, he plans to buy a Tiggo, a hybrid from the Chinese automaker Chery, because it looks cute and costs half as much as other foreign cars.

这种向新市场扩张的趋势已经在影响卡文这样的年轻消费者的选择。20岁的他还是一名大学生，目前没有收入。但他说，一旦开始赚钱，他打算买一辆奇瑞的混动车瑞虎，因为外形可爱，而且价格只有其他外国品牌的一半。

“China is just, like, the future for me,” Mr. Kavin said, acknowledging that the sentiment surprises even him. He used to associate Chinese products with poor quality, he said, but that assumption has faded as more Chinese brands have appeared around him, often at the forefront of new technology.

“对我来说，中国就像是未来，”卡文说。他也承认，这种想法连他自己都感到有些意外。他过去总把中国产品和质量不好联系在一起，但随着越来越多中国品牌出现在他身边，而且往往处在新技术的前沿，这种看法已经逐渐消退。

Electric vehicles changed Eski Badillah’s mind about Chinese companies. Mr. Eski, 35, is a remedial loan officer who repossesses borrowers’ motorbikes when they fall behind on payments. He started to notice the Chinese ones that he was apprehending.

电动车改变了埃斯基·巴迪拉对中国企业的看法。35岁的埃斯基是一名不良贷款处理专员，当借款人逾期还款时，他会收回他们的摩托车。他开始注意到自己收回的摩托车中有越来越多是中国品牌。

“Before, like 20 years ago, people would say: ‘Oh, what is this? It’s made in China,’” Mr. Eski said one recent afternoon, sitting outside a Mixue, the Chinese fast-food chain, in a residential Jakarta neighborhood. “We probably would laugh at it, the idea of a car or motorcycle from China.”

“以前，比如20年前，人们会说：‘这是什么？中国制造的，’”不久前的一个下午，埃斯基在雅加达一个居民区的蜜雪冰城门口坐着说道。“那时候提到中国制造的汽车或摩托车，我们大概会嗤之以鼻。”

“These days, that has changed,” he added. “The image of Chinese brands has become more positive.” When he has the money, he said, he plans to buy an electric vehicle from BYD.

“如今，情况已经变了，”他补充道。“中国品牌的形象变得正面了。”他说，等他有钱了，他打算买一辆比亚迪的电动车。

BYD and Geely, another top Chinese carmaker, are battling fierce competition at home and a glut of unsold electric vehicles. To survive, they have pushed aggressively into foreign markets. In Europe and the United States, their cars have faced a slew of trade barriers. Indonesia, by contrast, offers preferential tax rates to carmakers willing to build factories here.

比亚迪以及另一家中国大型汽车制造商吉利，正面临国内市场激烈的竞争和电动车库存过剩的问题。为了生存，它们大举进军海外市场。在欧洲和美国，它们的汽车遭遇了一系列贸易壁垒；相比之下，印尼则为愿意在当地建厂的汽车制造商提供优惠税率。

Chinese cars are “the most innovative, and they have the most features,” said Bramantya Adji Pratama, 27, a bank officer who was sharing hot pot with his partner at a location of the Chinese franchise Haidilao on a recent weekday.

“这些中国车最具创新性，而且配置也最丰富，”27岁的银行职员布拉曼蒂亚·阿吉·普拉塔马说。当时他正与伴侣正在一家海底捞吃火锅。

Nearby, a Haidilao employee stretched ribbons of dough into noodles, gyrating to a loud beat — part of the theatrics that have helped fuel the chain’s popularity. With 12 locations in Indonesia, Haidilao has exported more than just food, bringing a distinctive level of service that includes massages and manicures for customers waiting in line.

附近，一名海底捞员工随着强烈的节奏甩动面团，将其拉成长长的面条——这种表演式的服务正是这家连锁店大受欢迎的原因之一。海底捞在印尼已有12家门店，它输出的不只是食物，还包括一种独特的服务体验，比如为排队等座的食客提供按摩和美甲服务。

China is also exporting shopping habits. Indonesia has become one of the largest global markets for livestream shopping on TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.

中国也在输出消费方式。印尼已成为TikTok全球最大的直播带货市场之一，而该平台归中国公司字节跳动所有。

Like many other young Indonesians who are tethered to their phones and constantly online, Lutfiah, 29, who goes by one name, discovered the Chinese makeup brand Skintific through social media influencers, she said. The brand hosts hourslong livestreams during which presenters demonstrate products, answer questions and offer discounts.

跟许多手机不离手、时刻挂在网上的印尼年轻人一样，29岁的卢提亚（她只有单名）表示，她是通过社交媒体上的网红了解到中国美妆品牌Skintific的。该品牌会进行长达数小时的直播，主播在直播中展示产品、回答问题并提供折扣。

“How I see China and Chinese people has changed because of some of the products I use,” she said.

“我对中国和中国人的看法因为我使用的一些产品而发生了改变，”她说。

Tauhid Ahmad, an economist at the Institute for Development Economics and Finance in Jakarta, said that South Korean pop music and culture were wildly popular in Indonesia a decade ago, but that Chinese dramas had overtaken them in popularity these days. He said many young Indonesians were unaware of the historical tensions between China and Indonesia.

雅加达经济与金融发展研究所的经济学家陶希德·艾哈迈德表示，十年前韩国流行音乐和文化在印尼非常火爆，但如今中国电视剧已经在受欢迎程度上超过了它们。他说，许多印尼年轻人并不了解中国与印尼之间的历史紧张关系。

“They don’t know about the past,” he said. “They believe that China is good because it is a rich country and they have good technology.”

“他们不了解过去，”他说。“他们认为中国很好，因为它是一个富裕的国家，而且拥有先进的技术。”

This shift is unfolding as some young consumers turn away from American brands. Boycott campaigns targeting McDonald’s, Starbucks and KFC have spread widely on social media, eating into sales and opening opportunities for rivals. The intensity of the boycott campaign has eased since Israel’s war with Hamas began in 2023, but many consumers are still avoiding those brands.

这种转变发生在一些年轻消费者开始远离美国品牌之际。针对麦当劳、星巴克和肯德基的抵制活动在社交媒体上广泛传播，这侵蚀了这些品牌的销售额，也为竞争对手创造了机会。自2023年以色列与哈马斯的战争爆发以来，抵制的强度有所减弱，但仍有不少消费者继续回避这些品牌。

In Jakarta, the embrace of all things Chinese is visible in places like Glodok, the city’s Chinatown, once known for its wholesale shops selling inexpensive goods. The area is now crowded with coffee shops and food stalls, set against restored facades and heritage temples.

在雅加达，唐人街格洛多克就是这种拥抱中国风潮的缩影。这里过去以批发廉价商品闻名，如今却遍布咖啡馆和小吃摊，映衬着周围修缮一新的建筑外墙和古老寺庙。

Restu Ramadhani Putri, 24, wanted to visit the neighborhood after seeing it featured on TikTok alongside impressive videos of China’s vast highways, trains and infrastructure.

24岁的雷丝杜·拉玛达尼·普特里说，她在TikTok上刷到了这个街区的视频，还看到那些特别震撼的中国高速路、高铁和基建画面，看完就想到唐人街转转。

“In the past, if we bought something from China, we would say, ‘Ugh, it’s from China,’” Ms. Restu said. “Now it’s like, ‘Wow, China is really cool.’”

“过去，如果我们买到中国的东西，会说‘呃，是中国的，’”雷丝杜说，“现在则变成‘哇，中国真酷。’”

When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role.

阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊担任伊朗最高领袖期间，对战争、和平及对美谈判等所有事务拥有绝对决策权。但他的继任者，也就是他的儿子，并未扮演同样的角色。

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son, is an elusive figure who has not been seen and whose voice has not been heard since he was appointed in March. Instead, a battle-hardened collective of commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and those aligned with them are the key decision makers on matters of security, war and diplomacy.

他的儿子阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自3月就任以来始终行踪成谜，从未公开露面，也未发表过任何讲话。取而代之的是，由伊斯兰革命卫队身经百战的指挥官及其盟友组成的集体，成了安全、战争与外交事务的核心决策者。

“Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board,” said Abdolreza Davari, a politician who served as senior adviser to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he was president and knows Mr. Khamenei.

“穆杰塔巴现在治理国家的方式就像是董事会主席，”曾在马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德总统任内担任高级顾问、与哈梅内伊相识的政治人士阿卜杜勒礼萨·达瓦里说。

“He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions,” Mr. Davari said in a phone interview from Tehran. “The generals are the board members.”

“他高度依赖董事会成员的建议和指导，所有决策都由他们集体做出，”达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示。“这些将军们就是董事会成员。”

This account of Iran’s new power structure is based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, two former officials, two members of the Revolutionary Guards, a senior cleric familiar with the inner workings of the system and three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei well. Nine other individuals with ties to the Guards and the government also described the command structure. They all spoke on the condition they not be identified because they were discussing sensitive matters of state.

本文对伊朗新权力结构的描述基于对六名伊朗高级官员、二名前官员、二名革命卫队成员、一名熟悉体系内部运作的资深神职人员，以及三名与哈梅内伊私交甚笃人士的采访。另有九名与卫队和政府有联系的人士也描述了这一指挥体系。由于涉及敏感国家事务，所有受访者均要求匿名。

Mr. Khamenei, who was selected by a council of senior clerics as the new supreme leader, has been in hiding since American and Israeli forces bombed his father’s compound on Feb. 28, where he also lived with his family. His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes.

穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊由高级神职人员委员会选为新任最高领袖，自2月28日美以联军轰炸他与家人共同居住的其父官邸后便一直躲藏。他的父亲、妻子和儿子均在此次空袭中丧生。如今，要接触到他极为困难且受到严格限制，他身边主要是一支由医生和医护人员组成的团队，正在为他治疗空袭中受的伤。

Senior commanders of the Guards and senior government officials do not visit him, fearing that Israel may trace them to him and kill him. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is also a heart surgeon, and the minister of health have both been involved in his care.

革命卫队高级指挥官和政府高官都没有去探望他，担心以色列会通过追踪他们找到并杀死他。本身是心脏外科医生的总统马苏德·佩泽什基安与卫生部长也参与了他的治疗工作。

Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health. One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery.

据四名了解其健康状况的伊朗高级官员透露，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊虽伤势严重，但神志清醒、思维清晰。他的一条腿接受了三次手术，目前正在等待安装假肢；他的一只手也做过手术，正在缓慢恢复；他的面部和嘴唇严重烧伤，导致说话困难。官员们补充说，他最终需要接受整形手术。

Mr. Khamenei has not recorded a video or audio message, the officials said, because he does not want to appear vulnerable or sound weak in his first public address. He has issued several written statements that have been posted online and read on state television.

官员们表示，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至今未录制任何视频或音频信息，因为他不想在首次公开讲话中显得脆弱或声音虚弱。他已发布多份书面声明，在网上发布并由国家电视台宣读。

Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.

传递给他的信息都是手写密封在信封中，通过值得信赖的信使组成的人链接力传送——信使们驾车或骑摩托车，穿梭于公路和乡间小路，最终抵达他的藏身之处。他对各项事务的指示，也通过同样的方式传回。

The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei’s delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now. Reformist factions, as well as ultra-hard-liners, are still involved in political discussions. But analysts say that Mr. Khamenei’s close ties to the generals, whom he grew up with when he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war as a teenager, have made them the dominant force.

出于安全考虑、自身伤势以及难以接触的现实，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至少在目前已将决策权下放给了将军们。改革派和极端强硬派仍参与政治讨论，但分析人士指出，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊与将军们的深厚渊源——他十几岁时志愿参加两伊战争，与他们一同成长——使军方成为了主导力量。

President Trump has said that the war, along with the killings of layers of Iran’s leaders and security establishment, has ushered in “regime change” and that the new leaders are “much more reasonable.” In reality, the Islamic republic has not been toppled. Power is now in the hands of an entrenched, hard-line military, and the broad influence of the clerics is waning.

特朗普总统曾表示，这场战争以及伊朗多层级领导人和安全机构人员的死亡已经带来了“政权更迭”，新领导人“理性得多”。但现实是，伊斯兰共和国并未被推翻，权力如今掌握在根基稳固的强硬派军方手中，而神职人员的广泛影响力正在减弱。

“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House who has contact with people in Iran. “There is, perhaps, deference to him. He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now.”

“穆杰塔巴尚未完全掌握指挥权或控制权，”与伊朗国内有联系的英国查塔姆研究所中东与北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基勒说。“人们或许对他表示尊重，他在形式上会签字批准，或者以正式身份参与决策体系。但现在，摆在他面前的都是既成事实的方案。”

The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards general and the lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, said in a television address on Saturday that the U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal and peace plan and Iran’s response had been shared with Mr. Khamenei and his views taken into account when making decisions.

伊朗议会议长、前革命卫队将军、赴巴基斯坦与美国谈判的首席代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫周六在电视讲话中表示，美国提出的核协议与和平计划以及伊朗的回应，都已通报穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，决策过程中也考虑了他的意见。

The Rise of the Guards

 革命卫队的崛起

The Revolutionary Guards, formed as protectors of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, have steadily amassed power through top political roles, stakes in key industries, domination of intelligence operations and cultivation of ties with militant groups in the Middle East that share Iran’s enmity toward Israel and the United States.

伊斯兰革命卫队成立之初旨在保卫1979年伊斯兰革命，它通过担任高层政治职务、控股关键产业、主导情报行动，以及与中东地区同样仇视美以的武装组织建立联系，逐步积累了权力。

But under the elder Mr. Khamenei, they still had to mostly adhere to his will as a singular religious figure who also served as commander in chief of the armed forces. He empowered the Guards, and over time they became the tool and pillar of his rule.

但在老哈梅内伊时期，他们仍需基本服从这位集宗教领袖与武装部队总司令于一身的绝对权威。老哈梅内伊一手扶持了革命卫队，久而久之，卫队成为了他统治的工具和支柱。

Mr. Khamenei’s killing on the first day of the war created a void and an opportunity. The Guards rallied behind Mojtaba in the succession struggle that ensued and played an instrumental role in his selection as Iran’s third supreme leader.

战争首日，老哈梅内伊的身亡制造了权力真空，也带来了机会。在随后的继任斗争中，革命卫队全力支持穆杰塔巴，并在他当选伊朗第三任最高领袖的过程中发挥了决定性作用。

The Guards have multiple levers of power. The commander in chief is Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the newly appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council, is a former hard-line commander of the Guards. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a commander, has served as the top military adviser to both father and son supreme leaders.

革命卫队手握多重权力杠杆：总司令是艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将；新任最高国家安全委员会主席穆罕默德·巴盖尔·佐勒加德尔曾是革命卫队强硬派的指挥官；指挥官叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维将军则先后担任哈梅内伊父子两代最高领袖的首席军事顾问。“穆杰塔巴不是真正的最高领袖；他或许名义上是领袖，但没有他父亲那样的绝对权威，”在伊朗拥有广泛人脉的国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹说。“穆杰塔巴受制于革命卫队，因为他的地位、乃至整个体系的存续，都要归功于他们。”

“Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the International Crisis Group who has extensive contacts in Iran. “Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them.”

受访官员表示，将军们将美以战争视为对政权生存的威胁，经过五周的激烈战斗，他们自信已经成功遏制了这一威胁。在每个关键节点，都是他们主导决定战略和资源调配。

The officials interviewed say the generals view the war with the United States and Israel as a threat to the regime’s survival, and after five weeks of fierce fighting, the generals are confident that they have contained the threat. At every juncture, they have taken the lead in deciding strategy and the use of resources.

他们关闭霍尔木兹海峡，颠覆了全球经济，并利用战争中的任何战果作为筹码，在国内排挤政治对手。知情官员称，民选总统及其内阁已被边缘化，被告知只需专注于国内事务，比如保障食品和燃料的稳定供应，确保国家正常运转。

They have upended the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz and have used any gains in the war as leverage to outmaneuver political rivals at home. The elected president and his cabinet have been sidelined and told to focus only on domestic affairs, such as providing a steady flow of food and fuel, and to make sure the country is functioning, according to knowledgeable officials.

官员们表示，战前主导对美谈判的外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐，如今已被边缘化，取而代之的是议会议长加利巴夫。

The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been marginalized in the negotiations that he led with the United States before the war, the officials said. Mr. Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament, has taken the lead instead.

新任最高领袖一直予以配合，极少甚至从未反对过将军们的决定。

The newly minted supreme leader has followed along, rarely if ever objecting to the generals, they said.

正是革命卫队制定了伊朗袭击以色列和波斯湾国家、以及关闭海峡航运的战略；是他们同意与美国临时停火，批准了与美国的秘密外交和直接谈判；也是他们从内部挑选了加利巴夫，由他带队前往伊斯兰堡与美国副总统JD·万斯会谈。

It was the Guards who came up with the strategy for Iran’s attacks on Israel and the Persian Gulf states, along with the closing of the strait to maritime traffic. They were the ones who agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the United States and approved back-channel diplomacy and direct negotiations with the United States. They tapped Mr. Ghalibaf from among their own ranks to lead the talks with Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad.

这是伊朗与美国的谈判代表团中首次出现多名革命卫队的军方将领。

For the first time, several military generals from the Guards were part of the Iranian delegation negotiating with the United States.

伊朗官员和另外三名熟悉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的人士在德黑兰接受采访时表示，他对卫队的顺从部分是因为刚接任领导职务，缺乏父亲那样的政治声望和宗教影响力，部分则源于他与卫队深厚的个人渊源。

Iranian officials and three others individuals who know Mojtaba Khamenei said in interviews from Tehran that his deference to the Guards was partly because he was new to the leadership role. He lacks the political stature and religious clout that made his father such a singular force. And it is partly because of his deep personal ties to the Guards.

哈梅内伊17岁时志愿参加两伊战争，被分配到革命卫队的哈比卜营。这段经历塑造了他，也让他结下了一生的情谊。随着时间推移，该营的许多成员都晋升到了有影响力的军事和情报岗位。

When Mr. Khamenei was 17, he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war. He was deployed to a brigade of the Guards called the Habib Battalion. The experience shaped him, and he made lifelong bonds. As they grew and aged, many members of the battalion rose into influential military and intelligence roles.

哈梅内伊后来在神学院完成学业，获得阿亚图拉头衔，成为一名什叶派学者和法学家。他长期在父亲的官邸工作，为父亲协调军事和情报行动，这一角色进一步巩固了他与将军和情报主管们的联系。

Mr. Khamenei completed his studies at a theological seminary, reaching the rank of ayatollah, considered a scholar and jurist of the Shiite faith. He worked at his father’s compound, coordinating military and intelligence operations for his father, a role that further cemented his ties to the generals and intelligence chiefs.

哈梅内伊在哈比卜营的密友包括：革命卫队前情报主管、神职人员侯赛因·塔埃布；上世纪80年代担任指挥官、现已被召回服役的穆赫辛·雷扎伊将军。加利巴夫也是他的多年老友。

Among Mr. Khamenei’s close friends from the Habib Battalion is the Guards’ former intelligence chief, the cleric Hossein Taeb; and Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, who commanded him in the 1980s and has been called back from retirement. Mr. Ghalibaf is also a longtime friend.

据伊朗官员和三名与哈梅内伊有私交的人士透露，多年来，哈梅内伊、塔埃布和加利巴夫每周都会在阿亚图拉的官邸共进漫长的工作午餐，他们被称为“权力三角”。2009年总统选举中落败的温和派神职人员迈赫迪·卡鲁比曾指控三人干预选举，为时任总统艾哈迈迪内贾德操纵了结果。卡鲁比的失利引发了长达数月的动荡、抗议和暴力冲突。

For years, Mr. Khamenei, Mr. Taeb and Mr. Ghalibaf met once a week for long working lunches at the ayatollah’s compound, according to Iranian officials and the three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei personally. They became known as the “triangle of power.” The trio was accused by a more moderate cleric, Mehdi Karroubi, of intervening in the 2009 presidential election in which he was a candidate and rigging the results in favor of the incumbent president, Mr. Ahmadinejad. Mr. Karroubi lost, and the election upset led to months of upheaval, protests and violence.

达瓦里说，这些私人关系如今深刻影响着哈梅内伊与将军们的互动。他们彼此直呼其名，视对方为同辈，而非上下级。

These personal relationships are now playing heavily into the dynamic between Mr. Khamenei and the generals. They are on a first-name basis and view one another as peers, not superior and subordinate, said Mr. Davari.

 分歧显现

Differences Emerge

将军们并非决策层唯一的声音。伊朗政治从来不是铁板一块，其制度设计本身就包含平行的权力结构。分歧和分裂在伊朗政治人物和军事指挥官中一直很常见，很多时候还会公开化。佩泽什基安总统和阿拉格齐外长也是国家安全委员会的成员。

The generals are not the only voices at the table. Iranian politics have never been monolithic, and the system is designed to have parallel power structures. Disagreements and divisions have always been common and, in many instances, public among Iranian political figures and military commanders. Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi also have seats on the National Security Council.

但在当前的集体领导下，最终拍板的是将军们，而且目前他们内部没有出现混乱的迹象。

But under the current collective leadership, it is the generals who prevail and currently there are no signs of disarray among them.

周二，就在伊美谈判代表团准备飞往伊斯兰堡举行第二轮会谈之际，将军们叫停了谈判。连日来，围绕如果特朗普继续维持对伊朗的海上封锁，伊朗是否还应与万斯谈判的问题，内部分歧一直在发酵。当时已有约27艘伊朗船只在试图进出伊朗港口时被拦截。

On Tuesday, as the Iranian and American negotiating teams prepared to fly to Islamabad to meet for a second round of talks, the generals pulled the plug. For days differences had simmered over whether Iran should continue talks with Mr. Vance if Mr. Trump maintained a sea blockade on Iran. Already, some 27 Iranian ships had been turned around while trying to enter or exit Iranian ports.

官员们称，特朗普在社交媒体上连发多条帖子，扬言要迫使伊朗屈服于他的所有要求，并再次威胁如果伊朗不达成协议，就轰炸该国的发电厂和桥梁。随后美国扣押了两艘伊朗船只，这进一步激怒了将军们，他们认为此举违反了停火协议。

Mr. Trump had fired off a series of social media posts about forcing Iran to give in to all his demands, and he had renewed threats to bomb the country’s power plants and bridges if Iran did not agree to a deal. The United States then seized two ships belonging to Iran, further infuriating the generals, who thought the move amounted to a violation of the cease-fire, officials said.

据了解会议内容的官员和两名革命卫队成员透露，总司令瓦希迪和其他几位将军认为，谈判毫无意义，因为封锁表明特朗普根本无意谈判，只是想逼迫伊朗投降。

The commander in chief, General Vahidi, and several other generals argued that talks were futile because the blockade showed Mr. Trump was not interested in negotiations and wanted to pressure Iran to surrender, according to officials and two members of the Guards who were briefed on the meeting.

官员们表示，佩泽什基安和阿拉格齐对此表示反对。佩泽什基安警告说，战争已给伊朗造成约3000亿美元的经济损失，迫切需要解除制裁以进行重建。双方在伊朗应将海峡封锁推进到何种程度的问题上也出现了分歧。

The officials said Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi disagreed. Mr. Pezeshkian warned of the dire economic losses from the war, estimated by the government to be about $300 billion, and the need for sanctions relief for reconstruction. Disagreements also emerged over how far Iran should push with its closure of the strait.

最终将军们获胜，谈判宣告破裂。

The generals won, and the talks fell apart.

特朗普延长了停火，但仍维持封锁，称除非伊朗“分裂的领导层”拿出自己的和平方案，否则封锁不会解除。没人知道接下来会发生什么。也不清楚革命卫队是否会在伊朗核问题上向美国做出足够让步，以促成和平协议——尤其是在冻结铀浓缩活动和交出400公斤高浓缩铀库存这两个争议焦点上。

Mr. Trump extended the cease-fire but is keeping the blockade in place until, he said, Iran’s “fractured leaders” present their own peace proposal. What happens next is not clear. Nor is it clear whether the Guards will allow enough concessions to the United States on Iran’s nuclear program for a peace deal to materialize, including on the two contentious issues: freezing enrichment and giving up the 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

伊朗国内一个虽不占主导但立场强硬的边缘派系反对做出任何让步，认为只要继续战斗，伊朗就能击败以色列和美国。强硬派的支持者们每晚都走上街头举行集会，挥舞旗帜，誓言为伊斯兰共和国流血牺牲。阿拉格齐曾在社交媒体上发帖称伊朗将开放海峡，结果遭到强硬派的猛烈抨击，指责谈判团队背叛了支持者。

A hard-line fringe faction in Iran, while not dominant, has opposed making any concessions, believing that if Iran continued fighting it would defeat Israel and the United States. Supporters of the hard-liners have filled the streets with rallies at night, waving flags and pledging their blood for the Islamic republic. When Mr. Araghchi posted on social media at one point that Iran was opening the strait, the hard-liners attacked him, accusing the negotiating team of betraying their supporters.

这些激进分子是极端强硬派总统候选人赛义德·贾利利的支持者。贾利利虽已被排除在决策圈外，但仍有一定影响力，包括掌控着由他弟弟运营的国家电视台。一些人要求哈梅内伊发布视频或音频信息，向公众确认他支持与华盛顿的谈判。在德黑兰的一次集会上，人群向哈梅内伊发出呼声：“领袖，下令吧，我们会追随你。”

The firebrands are supporters of Saeed Jalili, an ultra-hard-line presidential candidate, who has been sidelined from making decisions but still has some influence, including over state television, which his brother runs. Some demanded that Mr. Khamenei make a video or audio message to confirm to the public he was on board with the negotiations with Washington. At a rally in Tehran, crowds addressing Mr. Khamenei chanted, “Commander, give us the order and we will follow.”

加利巴夫于当地时间周六晚在国家电视台向全国发表讲话，向伊朗民众保证哈梅内伊参与了决策。他的语气既强硬又务实，称伊朗取得了击落美国战斗机等军事成就，但现在是时候将这些成果转化为外交谈判的筹码了。

Mr. Ghalibaf addressed the nation on state television on Saturday night local time, assuring Iranians that Mr. Khamenei was involved. He struck a defiant but pragmatic tone, saying that Iran had gained military achievements, including shooting down an American fighter jet, but that now it was time to leverage those gains in diplomatic negotiations.

“有时候，我听到人们说我们彻底打败了他们，”加利巴夫说。“不，我们没有打败他们；你们必须明白这一点。我们的军事成就并不意味着我们比美国更强大。”

Europe’s nationalist right rejoiced when Donald Trump was first elected in 2016. It celebrated again when he returned to the White House last year. His triumph was seen as a vindication of the anti-immigrant, anti-woke platforms that have been gaining momentum on their side of the Atlantic, too.

2016年特朗普首次当选时，欧洲民族主义右翼欢欣鼓舞。去年他重返白宫时，他们再次举杯庆祝。他的胜利被视为反移民、反觉醒主义立场的胜利证明——这样的立场在大西洋彼岸也正日益壮大。

But over the past year, Trump’s aggressive tariffs, his threats to invade Greenland, his war on Iran — and the energy crisis it has spawned — not to mention his attacks on the pope, have changed that.

但过去一年里，特朗普咄咄逼人的关税政策、入侵格陵兰岛的威胁、对伊朗发动的战争及其引发的能源危机，更不用说他对教皇的攻击，彻底改变了这一切。

Today my colleague Jason Horowitz, our Madrid bureau chief, writes about how Trump’s brand is now so toxic in Europe that left-wingers and conservatives are both opposing him.

我的同事、马德里分社社长杰森·霍洛维茨今日撰文指出，特朗普的品牌如今在欧洲已变得有毒，以至于左翼和保守派都站到了他的对立面。

Why so many leaders in Europe want to stand up to Trump

为何欧洲多国领导人纷纷站出来对抗特朗普

By Jason Horowitz

作者：杰森·霍洛维茨

He’s the newly anointed leader of the global left.

他是全球左翼新晋领袖。

She’s a pioneer of Europe’s new nationalist right.

她是欧洲新民粹右翼的先驱。

Even though Pedro Sánchez of Spain and Giorgia Meloni of Italy are two European prime ministers on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, last week they both found themselves walking the same path to political survival: standing up to President Trump.

尽管西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯和意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼分属意识形态光谱的两端，上周两人却走上了同一条政治生存之路：公开对抗特朗普总统。

It’s a sign of just how low Trump’s standing in Europe has fallen.

这一现象标志着特朗普在欧洲的声望已跌至谷底。

Trump as life preserver

特朗普成了救命稻草

In Spain, Sánchez has emerged as the darling of the international left for his early-and-often opposition to Trump, whether it be the American president’s tariff threats, his demands for increased military spending, his Greenland ambitions or, most critically, his war in Iran.

在西班牙，桑切斯因早早就持续不断地反对特朗普成为国际左翼的宠儿。无论是特朗普的关税威胁、要求欧洲增加军费开支、觊觎格陵兰岛的野心，还是最关键的对伊朗战争，桑切斯都明确表示反对。

“No to war,” Sánchez bellowed at a conference in Barcelona that I attended over the weekend. He spoke to a rapturous crowd consisting of his Spanish base, but also liberal leaders from Europe, South America, Africa and the United States. “Shame on those who defend the privileges of the elites,” he said, “who support war.”

“反对战争！”上周末在巴塞罗那参加的一场会议上，桑切斯高声疾呼。台下如痴如醉的听众中，不仅有他的西班牙基本盘，还有来自欧洲、南美、非洲和美国的自由派领导人。“那些为精英特权辩护、支持战争的人，应该感到羞耻。”

But as many Spanish analysts have pointed out, Sánchez’s standing up to Trump, and Trump’s repeated put-downs of Sánchez, have served not only to elevate the prime minister’s stature abroad, but to distract from his troubles at home. Sánchez’s former political associates are facing embarrassing corruption scandals and trials in the Spanish Supreme Court this month. (They say that they are innocent, and Sánchez himself is not implicated.)

但正如许多西班牙分析人士指出的，桑切斯对抗特朗普，以及特朗普屡次贬低桑切斯不仅提升了这位首相的国际声望，也成功转移了人们对他国内困境的注意力。桑切斯的前政治盟友本月正因令人尴尬的腐败丑闻在西班牙最高法院受审。（他们均声称自己无罪，桑切斯本人未被牵连。）

Sánchez had been sinking in polls since the summer. But Trump has become a life preserver. The more Sánchez seeks to distance Spain from the U.S., the better his poll numbers look. Since taking on Trump, he is stirring enthusiasm among a base he desperately needs to mobilize. His popularity is swelling.

自去年夏天以来，桑切斯的支持率一路下滑。但特朗普成了他的救命稻草。桑切斯越是努力让西班牙与美国保持距离，他的民调数据就越好看。自从公开对抗特朗普后，他在他急需动员的基本盘中激起了热情，支持率大幅飙升。

Trump as albatross

特朗普是沉重的包袱

Something not dissimilar is playing out across the Mediterranean Sea, in Italy.

在地中海对岸的意大利，类似的剧情正在上演。

Sánchez and Meloni don’t have much in common politically. She’s the standard-bearer of a hard-right European ideology that had long embraced Trump for his nationalism, opposition to immigration and disdain for liberal identity politics. For years, Meloni had sought leverage in Europe as a sort of right-wing bridge to Trump.

桑切斯和梅洛尼在政治上几乎没有共同点。梅洛尼是欧洲极右翼意识形态的旗手。长期以来，因为特朗普的民族主义立场、反对移民以及对自由派身份政治的蔑视，欧洲极右翼一直对特朗普推崇备至。多年来，梅洛尼一直试图在欧洲发挥影响力，充当右翼与特朗普之间的桥梁。

And yet last week, she found herself traveling the same Trump-divergent road.

然而上周，她也走上了与特朗普分道扬镳的路。

Meloni recently lost a referendum that many analysts attributed to her close association with Trump. His popularity in Italy has plummeted since he threatened tariffs, including on pasta, and launched the war in Iran.

梅洛尼最近输掉了一场公投，许多分析人士将其归咎于她与特朗普的密切关联。自从特朗普威胁对包括意大利面在内的商品加征关税，并发动对伊朗的战争后，他在意大利的支持率一落千丈。

Then Trump attacked Pope Leo XIV.

雪上加霜的是，特朗普还攻击了教宗良十四世。

In Catholic Italy, where the Vatican matters, a choice between taking the side of a popular pope standing up for peace in a war that most Italians oppose and an American president digging popularity ditches isn’t much of a choice at all. Meloni, who has governed more as a pragmatist than an ideologue, took the pope’s side.

在天主教的意大利，梵蒂冈的影响力举足轻重。在一场遭到大多数意大利人反对的战争中，选择站在广受欢迎、为和平挺身而出的教宗一边，还是站在自毁人气的美国总统一边，该怎样选择几乎没有悬念。执政风格更偏向实用主义而非意识形态的梅洛尼选择了支持教宗。

“I find President Trump’s remarks about the Holy Father unacceptable,” Meloni said.

“我认为特朗普总统对教宗的言论是不可接受的，”梅洛尼说。

Trump did the hard work for Meloni in response, attacking her as disloyal, not the person he thought he knew. For Meloni, who, like Sánchez, is expected to face elections next year, the breakup message was essentially a political gift.

特朗普的回应帮了梅洛尼大忙：他攻击梅洛尼不忠诚，称她不再是他认识的那个人。对于和桑切斯一样预计明年将面临大选的梅洛尼来说，这场“分手”本质上是一份政治大礼。

A toxic American president

有毒的美国总统

That distance from Trump is a political imperative for such diametrically ideological opposites as Sánchez and Meloni demonstrates how toxic the American president has become across the continent.

对于意识形态截然相反的桑切斯和梅洛尼而言，与特朗普保持距离都已成为政治上的必然选择，这充分说明这位美国总统在整个欧洲大陆已变得多么有毒。

On the left, Trump has been a boogeyman from Day 1, and Sánchez has clearly made the calculation that the political benefits of running hard against the American president are worth whatever blowback may come. His advisers say the country, which has a growing economy, a trade surplus with the United States and the protection of the European Union when it comes to trade agreements, is well equipped for any reprisals. Trump is so unpopular that he is more useful to Sánchez as a foil than a friend.

在左翼阵营，特朗普从一开始就是恶棍。桑切斯显然算过一笔账：全力对抗这位美国总统带来的政治收益足以抵消任何可能的反噬。他的顾问表示，西班牙经济持续增长，对美存在贸易顺差，且在贸易协定方面有欧盟的保护，完全有能力应对任何反制措施。特朗普如此不得人心，对桑切斯来说，他作为对手的价值远大于作为朋友的价值。

On the other hand, European conservatives for years saw Trump as an energizing figure, someone who broke with taboos against the far-right, who created momentum as they sought to dismantle the European Union and carry out more nationalist agendas back home.

另一方面，欧洲保守派多年来一直将特朗普视为鼓舞人心的人物。他打破了针对极右翼的禁忌，为他们推动欧盟解体、在国内推行更多民族主义议程创造了势头。

But the distance sought by Meloni suggests that may be changing.

但梅洛尼寻求与特朗普保持距离的举动表明，这种情况正在改变。

In Britain, Nigel Farage, a onetime Trump fan, is increasingly critical of him. A leading figure in Germany’s far-right AfD party called him a “millstone.” In France, leaders of the National Rally have explicitly called for distance. Now it seems that Meloni, too, has decided he is a bridge too far.

在英国，曾经是特朗普拥趸的奈杰尔·法拉奇对他的批评日益增多。德国极右翼政党德国选择党的一位核心人物称特朗普是“负担”。在法国，国民联盟的领导人已明确呼吁与特朗普划清界限。如今，梅洛尼似乎也认定他已经太过火了。

And if she wanted more evidence that Trump’s embrace could be electorally unhelpful, she would need to look no further than Hungary, where, despite good tidings from Trump and a personal visit from Vice President JD Vance, Meloni’s ally, Viktor Orban, recently lost in a landslide.

如果她还需要更多证据证明特朗普的支持对选举毫无帮助，只需看看匈牙利就够了。尽管获得特朗普的力挺、副总统万斯亲自到访，梅洛尼的盟友维克托·欧尔班最近还是在选举中遭到惨败。